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发表于 2013-1-12 05:49 PM
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Here is my view based on SPY:
1. Yearly chart -- there are only 3 段 only, the last 段 is from 66.75 and trying to break
previous bar (148.11) and 154.99 on 2000.
As soon as the bar on 2013 will break 148.11, it will confirm one big top to be formed, however
it's necessary to break 154.99 to continue up trend, otherwise the market is still in uncertain status.
2. Quarterly chart -- there are 5 段 now, it doesn't matter if the market will go to new high or not, the correction
in quarterly rank is coming. I don't know how many quarters but at least it will last three quarters.
3. Monthly chart -- there are many 段 now, I just use the last 5 段 for analysis. It started from 66.75, the first was completed
at 114.54, the second was completed at 100.60, the third was completed at 137.18, the fourth was completed at 107.43,
now the fifth(148.11) is still forming. I am wondering if the top based on monthly chart will be around here.
The only hope for keeping up trend is MM to use AAPL, apparently MM planed one down 段 in monthly chart ( it will happen as soon as the price breaks 501.23). Sometimes I consider MM are very smart to make the chart to move as they want, but the highest price 705.07 must be test again for confirming the fall of AAPL.
Anyway, it's not good to understand long time view. Just use 1F to trade because the critical point (148.11) could be reached within 1F.
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发表于 2013-1-12 11:34 AM
