Forex/Futures Outlook 07/02 - 07/03

greenback

I was about to change the format over the weekend but the server was crashed ... Anyway, the plan was to have one post for the outlook and sharing setups and entries based on 1h and 4h charts and to have the other post for sharing setups and entries based on 5m charts. Let's start today ...

Let's start from forex.

EURO is not as strong as many other assets, yet to reach the previous high of 1.275. This is probably due to the expectation that ECB may lower interest rate this week. Because of this, its weakest may not be bad for stocks.


AUD is much stronger, it is consolidating after breaking out of the cup. Now is the entry point, the stop loss would be yesterday's low, and target is previous high at 1.05.


JPY is definitely turning weaking, but a safer trading plan would be to sell on its strength, i.e. when USD/JPY hits the uptrendline. The stop loss, a previous high, would be closer to the entry point ...

greenback

CRUDE had a nice reversal after the bull flag, expecting to revisit Fri's high first. Need to see the pattern while testing the high to assess its strength.


I'm not sure GOLD would break the down trendline next time. At least I won't buy and hold GOLD when it's still below it.

greenback

ZN is turning stronger ... managed to make a higher high, but ZB still within a trading range.
So next time, buy ZB when it hits the low line and sell it when hitting 150 ... good hedging trade while longing risk-on assets.

greenback

ES is consolidating above the C&H ... target 1410 ...
NQ made a deeper hole and is yet to reach the previous high ...
Again, TF is doing a lot better ...

kdkboy

same feeling as you for Gold; each pullback for oil is a good change to buy at dip

any reason for bond suddenly rock, another big down ahead?

开小差

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-7-3 02:42 AM
same feeling as you for Gold; each pullback for oil is a good change to buy at dip

any reason for ...

Apparently bond traders don't believe the world economy will rocket up again ... so I would out all my longs in risk-on assets when ES retests the 1400 area ...

kdkboy

感觉油会有个比较大回调了，从78-88 非常快，我觉得回调目标是84

各个Index都在关键位置，超买的纠正不知道啥时候来；SPX空非常难，不知道庄家要拖到什么时候；一直想找合适的位置阻击，DT变成ST，一直都不能得手，

kdkboy

买入Us dollar index, 希望能到82

kdkboy

顺便问下各位老大，SPX，NAQ空那个比较好

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-7-3 12:35 PM
顺便问下各位老大，SPX，NAQ空那个比较好

I recommend staying with the longer time trend in your trades, which is risk on right now ...

greenback

I just unloaded 1/3 of my 401K account bought at the dip ... which is over 15% gain now ... This was done with 2X SPX long mutual fund.

The reason is that NYMO and JNK both have reached all-time high. Also Wed is closed and on Thur we have the ECB rate decision/ADP and on Fri is the big job day. Overall the later of the week will be volatile.