A Rare Buy Signal on U.S. Stocks

bigbadwolf

There are lots of reasons to be bearish [2] right now. But one of my favorite trading indicators says it's time to buy.

The New York Stock Exchange Summation Index [3] (NYSI) is an intermediate-term measure of overbought and oversold conditions. Stocks are "officially" overbought when the NYSI rallies above 1,000. And they're oversold when it drops below zero. The indicator triggers a buy signal when the MACD [4] momentum indicator (the bottom box) extended below -200 and then turns higher.

We've only had four buy signals over the past three years. NYSI pegged the exact bottom of the market [5] twice. In the other two cases, stocks drifted slightly lower for a couple more weeks before starting to rally. Six months after each of these buy signals, stocks were between 18% and 50% higher.

As you can see in the chart below, we're on the brink of another buy signal today. There's no telling for sure what we'll get this time around. But based on this NYSI buy signal, it's a good time to buy stocks on weakness.

You can follow this trade with my on my Direct Line blog, where I provide real-time market commentary to subscribers of the S&A Short Report newsletter. To learn more about a subscription to the S&A Short Report and to get access to the Direct Line, click here [6].

tt92020

bigbadwolf

回复 tt92020 的帖子

刚才没有贴上图。现在图上来了。

Kami

匪兵甲

luckystar

棋王

大-坏-狼.

silicon_beaver

6th-Sense

bigbadwolf 发表于 2012-6-15 23:35
There are lots of reasons to be bearish [2] right now. But one of my favorite trading indicators say ...

Let's see new high......

bigbadwolf

回复 6th-Sense 的帖子




Cobra 的这个图更全面。

bigbadwolf

买入股票型ETF, MF 中期持有，会赚到的。即使一时下水也不怕/

6th-Sense

bigbadwolf 发表于 2012-6-18 21:32
买入股票型ETF, MF 中期持有，会赚到的。即使一时下水也不怕/

最好还是买入花姑娘的好。。。长期持有，时刻开心。 把你家花姑娘卖给六哥何如？ 如果你家舌不得， 俺把自己免费卖给你家姑娘如何？

bigbadwolf

by Al_Dente » Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:28 am
Percentage of stocks above the 50ma
This is weekly. All are in the top zone except nasdaq/compq

91wknd50ma.png



Stocks can quickly jump their 50ma. It takes much more strength to get above that 200ma, so this is a longer term indicator.
Percentage of stocks above their 200ma
Interesting that only the OEX and the DOW, the large-cap, narrow indices, have reached the top zone here (but could bounce higher),
while the others have room to grow.

91wknd200ma.png