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[基础分析] 手持系统,谁是最后的赢家

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发表于 2012-3-10 12:35 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


肯定不是苹果。Jobs的指导思想就是卖硬件系统。有分析指出,苹果在Apps上是不赚钱的,虽然每卖出一个apps,苹果提成30%。苹果搞这个apps ecosystem就是为了买硬件。在这个思想下,必须不断推出新硬件系统,才能保证经常性利润。如果Cook能改变策略,苹果还有路。可惜Cook是做Operation出身的,can do the thing right, but cannot do the right thing.

太阳底下没有新鲜事。和PC一样,手持系统的发展应该可以分成这样几个阶段
1. 卖整个系统,靠用户的忠实度赚钱。就像早期的Mac,现在的iPhone和iPad最吸引人的不是他的功能性,而是他的新潮性。这个阶段,赚钱是靠用户的狂热,象追逐fashion一样追逐产品。从心理层面来看,fashion能够满足消费者把自己和普罗大众区别开的心理需求。而iPhone和iPad恰当的满足了这个需求。这和当年的Mac是一样的。当年PC里只有Mac有图形交互界面,有字体。这个阶段的特点是,component vendor不赚钱,software vendor不赚钱,system vendor赚大钱,而system vendor的核心竞争力就是品牌。

2. 硬件标准化,软硬件分开。当PC真正成为日常消费品以后,system vendor就没法赚钱了。因为用户更注重功能性,不再愿意为了品牌而付出更贵的价钱。利润从system vendor向component vendor和software vendor转移。硬件的标准化降低了system vendor的门槛,更多的厂商可以进入到这个行业,竞争白热化,利润空间不断被压缩。硬件标准化的另外一个结果是component vendor往往形成一家或少数几家垄断的格局,因为非如此就不会有硬件标准化。第三个结果,软件开发门槛降低。因为硬件标准化,软件开发可以集中在一种或少数几种平台上进行,省掉了转换开发平台的learning curve。软件产品极大丰富,进一步推动功能性。这个阶段,利润向component vendor和software vendor转移

3. component vendor和software vendor形成垄断,二者形成联盟,彻底压缩掉system vendor的生存空间。大家想想当年的MS+Intel就明白了。

4. system vendor向商业市场转移,转形为service provider。大家想想IBM + HP。现在Dell也没法子了,要进入这块市场。

从这几个阶段来看,苹果只是第一个阶段的赢家。后面是Google+Intel的天下。Google的Android系统有望成为手持系统的Windows。而Google已经和Intel结成联盟。如果Android能在优化过的Intel chip上流畅的运行,同时提供给开发人员简单实用的开发平台,那么苹果就再无回天之力了。

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发表于 2012-3-10 01:01 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-3-10 01:04 AM | 显示全部楼层
而且苹果现在又开始以世界为敌的旧游戏了。这个游戏以前在MAC上玩过,要不是Jobs 杀了个回马枪,后果难料。。

现在,Nokia 和 微软联手
Google 买了摩托,还在Nexus和三星,ASUS,HTC打的火热
华为在一旁虎视眈眈,RIMM 嘛。。

苹果一个人真的想打遍天下吗?

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发表于 2012-3-10 01:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
It's hard to tel lat this stage.

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-10 01:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
morning 发表于 2012-3-10 01:04
而且苹果现在又开始以世界为敌的旧游戏了。这个游戏以前在MAC上玩过,要不是Jobs 杀了个回马枪,后果难料。 ...

heihei,是啊,Jobs也许可以玩,可惜Cook不是Jobs,这世上怕是再没有第二个Jobs了。
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发表于 2012-3-10 03:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-3-10 03:52 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2012-3-11 02:19 编辑

不能同意。

封闭系统有缺点,也有巨大的优势。
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发表于 2012-3-10 03:54 AM | 显示全部楼层
游戏规则变了。

以前MAC只能占用10%的市场份额,因为有兼容机这一大块。
现在的iPhone,iPad的东东,是完全Design的产品,哪个人能够自己凑一个出来?
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发表于 2012-3-10 03:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
果果做这么高端的东西,还能这么便宜,是其巨大的议价能力决定的。
这后面有量的支撑。
小竞争对手,BOM的成本都比果果的成品高,怎么玩?
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发表于 2012-3-10 04:00 AM | 显示全部楼层
Cook是搞供应链出身的,这里的奥秘他最懂。
所以Jobs选他做接班人,是很明智的。

果果10年后20年后怎么样,谁也不知道。短期5年内。不会有问题。

点评

你现在是苹果人?  发表于 2012-3-10 08:59 AM
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发表于 2012-3-10 09:42 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-3-10 10:04 AM | 显示全部楼层
CoolMax 发表于 2012-3-10 04:00
Cook是搞供应链出身的,这里的奥秘他最懂。
所以Jobs选他做接班人,是很明智的。

现在只是phase 1,后面还要2,3,4。

五年时间,对高速变化的high tech产业来说,太长了。五年前rimm如日中天,现在涅。

当然,因为经过了pc时代,high tech产业结构基本成形,壁垒森严,竞争成本升高,出现大变革的难度也增大。

当年人们提到dell的时候,说得也是supply chain。现在呢。

High tech的核心竞争力始终是innovation。MS有Gates的时候很牛,换了个sales出身的就颓了。

从Cook的近期表现看,他连marketing都做的不好。4s, new ipad,这些都是让marketing guru们摸不着头脑的事。

不过iphone, ipad市场还没饱和,苹果还有几年吃老本的时间。等到了iphone, ipad人手一个的时候,那就只能靠大家refresh硬件的时候才能再卖钱了。iphone两年一个周期,ipad我们算3年吧。那不跟pc也差不多。现在分析师一说pc,就说,又到了hardware refreshment cycle了,pc vendor效益应该会好点了。
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发表于 2012-3-10 08:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
ctcld  你现在是苹果人?  发表于 2012-3-10 05:59


不是,果果是我们大客户。
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发表于 2012-3-10 08:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 Diffusion 的帖子

在美国,搞创新,是烧钱的干活。

有钱,就有BrainPower。股票涨,就会吸引TalentPeople。

哪个对手有这个吸引力。
果果现在是CashCow,不差钱。
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发表于 2012-3-10 08:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
D兄原创么?

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是地  发表于 2012-3-10 11:21 PM
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发表于 2012-3-11 05:13 AM | 显示全部楼层

今天谈到供应链的问题,正好看到这篇文章,转载这里:

本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2012-3-11 02:14 编辑

iPad Dominates Due To Apple's Supply Chain Deals
Fri, 03/09/2012 - 9:11am
Peter Svensson, AP Technology Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — Apple certainly has lots of buzz and corporate cache behind its products, but there's a hidden — almost mundane — reason its newest iPad is likely to dominate the competition: the advantageous deals the company cuts with components manufacturers.

Apple's size, and the fact that the iPad shares components with the highly popular iPhone, means that the company can buy crucial parts such as processing chips and display screens at lower prices. Any company that wants to make a tablet computer that matches the iPad's $499 starting price has to endure higher costs.

As a result, Apple's tablet-making competitors have flailed — and failed. And with the new iPad, Apple is expected to extend its 62 percent market share in the tablet computer category it created. IMS Research expects Apple to capture 70 percent of the market this year.

A year ago, scores of companies all thought they had a shot at emulating Apple's success. More than 100 tablet models were on display at the annual consumer electronics trade show in Las Vegas in January 2011. Many of them ran on the Android operating system, developed by Silicon Valley powerhouse Google.

As the year progressed, those dreams crumbled. The iPad 2, launched in March, proved nearly unassailable.

A big part of the reason was that Apple has priced the iPad aggressively. At just under $500 for the basic model, Apple's profit margin on the device is lower than on the iPhone, a smaller device for which it charges phone companies a wholesale rate of $600 or more.

On Wednesday, Apple stuck to that price point when it unveiled the new iPad model. It has a screen that displays sharper images and deeper, more vibrant colors to set it apart from the competition. The new tablet goes on sale March 16 in the U.S. and several other countries.

Apple has other advantages, too. The company sells about a third of all iPads in its own stores or from its website. By cutting out the middleman, Apple is able to keep more of the slim profit margin for itself.

Because it produces tens of millions of iPads and uses some of the same components as the highly popular iPhone, Apple can buy crucial components such as chips and displays at lower prices.

According to research firm IHS iSuppli, Apple is the world's largest buyer of the microprocessor chips that serve as the "brains" of various devices. In January 2011, Apple said it had spent $3.9 billion on long-term contracts to secure supplies for two years of a "very strategic" component it wouldn't name. Few other companies are able to commit that much money.

Many suppliers are happy to sell to Apple, given the company's success in mobile products. ARM Holdings PLC, a British chip-maker that licenses the technology used in iPhone and iPad chips, for instance, saw its stock rise nearly 4 percent Thursday, a day after Apple unveiled iPads with faster processors. Other Apple suppliers, including Cirrus Logic Inc., Jabil Circuit Inc. and Skyworks Solutions, have all experienced healthy stock gains in recent months.

The iPad's pricing created an odd situation. Usually, the first gadget of its kind to hit the market is expensive. Competition then gradually brings prices down.

With the iPad, the reverse happened: Competing products from makers such as Samsung Electronics Co. and Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. were more expensive, at least for the first year.

The most extreme example of a tablet failure comes from Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry.

In late 2010, RIM's co-CEO at the time, Jim Balsillie, said interest in the planned PlayBook tablet was "really overwhelming," particularly from corporate customers, a key market for BlackBerry phones. In March, just before it launched, Balsillie said the PlayBook "may well be the most significant development for RIM since the launch of the first BlackBerry device back in 1999."

But the PlayBook was widely panned because of its software, which RIM had put together. It was also expensive. It cost the same as an entry-level iPad 2 despite being half as big.

When sales failed to materialize, RIM had to slash the price of the PlayBook from $500 to $200. It ended up taking a pre-tax charge of $485 million for the declining value of its inventory.

Other manufacturers slashed prices too, culminating in a "fire sale" during the recent holiday season, said Rhoda Alexander, an analyst who covers tablets for IHS iSuppli.

"Those price discounts have come out of the profit margin, to a large degree," she said.

Hewlett-Packard Co., meanwhile, left the market completely. In August, it decided to discontinue the fledging TouchPad tablet along with its line of smartphones, despite great reviews for the in-house software running them.

Samsung has been one of the survivors, selling 6.1 million tablets last year, according to IHS iSuppli. That makes it the second largest tablet maker after Apple, with a market share of 9 percent compared with Apple's62 percent. Samsung is also one of the world's leading makers of smartphones, chips and display screens. The company is, therefore, big enough to capture some of the advantages that Apple has as a buyer of components in bulk.

Samsung has put out a bevy of tablets in different screen sizes, hoping to capture buyers, who for one reason or another, want something other than the 9.7-inch screen of the iPad.

In November, another successful challenger appeared: Amazon.com Inc. The Internet retailer figured out that people would buy a device other than an iPad if the price was considerably lower. It put together a Spartan tablet with a minimum of frills and started selling it at $199. Amazon doesn't make a profit on its Kindle Fire, according to IHS iSuppli, but it hopes the device will help boost sales of movies, music and electronic books at its online store.

Analysts estimate that Amazon sold 3.9 million to 6 million Kindle Fires in the first six weeks, making it the third-largest seller of tablets last year. Looking solely at the last three months of 2011, Amazon beat Samsung as the second-largest seller of tablets.

Barnes & Noble Inc. adopted a similar strategy and was also successful, at least considering that it's a bookseller venturing into consumer electronics. It updated its Nook Color e-reader to make it more of a general-purpose device and called it the Nook Tablet. ISuppli estimates that it sold 3.3 million Nook tablets last year.

During this year's holiday shopping season, a new raft of challengers will appear: tablets powered by Microsoft Corp.'s Windows 8. Microsoft has provided software for PC-style tablets before, but they've never been more than a niche product. Now, the company is creating a version of Windows that runs on phone-style processors such as those used in the iPad. Reviews of the pre-production software have been positive. It will allow users to do some things they can't on an iPad, such as running two applications side by side on the same screen.

Still, analysts expect Apple to regain market share, after losing some because of the unsustainable discounting by competitors late last year. On Wednesday, Apple said it would keep the iPad 2 in production and cut the starting price to $399 — the same price as Samsung's Galaxy Note Tab 10.1.

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