沉默阿，沉默！

NYQ

不在沉默中灭亡，就在沉默中爆发！

mlll

en

NYQ

Here comes the test:
1. For SPX reach a new high, it need to have a strong up phase(V shaped) starting tonight and tommow, which seems less likely as time goes by.
2. If market  slowly crawling up, even if it can reach 1270 in the end, it will willl most likely to be topping.
3. More bearish senario will be that it can not even reach 1270 after one day or so crawling. That will be a strong sign to short.
So far, I prefer number 2 will be the likely course.
股文观止有一 叫"Perfect wave" 的置顶博文，snowride 周末有一预测图, 非常直观，如果没有强势上冲，the purple line may be the future course for SPX.
Good luck everybody.

BTW, 我现在仍持有今天买进的TNA. 准备过夜持有。

silicon_beaver

NYQ 发表于 2011-11-14 12:18
Here comes the test:
1. For SPX reach a new high, it need to have a strong up phase(V shaped) star ...

VIX is black Doji, high chance tomorrow green.

NYQ

回复 silicon_beaver 的帖子

Thanks for sharing your points.
Green would not be a surprise. as Cobra discribed in his review, this down phase is not impressive by itself. It is very likely finishing, if it has not finish yet. After the down phase , A反抽 was I originally expected. Less than that strongly sugest the up phase is ending, and a new high less likely.

Sorry, I was not familar with VIX, so I have no comments on that.

NYQ

It seems like the market is on the more bearish track! So be careful bulls, time and strenth is not on our side.

NYQ

事后一下：
So far, it seems that my basic analysis is correct, although I did not following my own judgmemnt.

qingqing