|
Just last Monday, when Nicolas Sarkozy urged Hillary Clinton to get the U.S. behind an international intervention in Libya, she demurred. The U.S. Secretary of State warned the French president that a war could be risky and bloody, say officials from both countries who were briefed on the exchange.
Yet by the weekend, France, the U.S. and an international coalition stood poised to take "all necessary measures"—code for military strikes—in Libya, under United Nations authority.
In hindsight, the meeting at the Elysée Palace in Paris was the launch point for four frantic days of diplomacy that turned the Obama administration toward intervention, western and Arab diplomats say. A lot of factors drove the shift, they say, including the administration's concern about being out of step with the changes sweeping the Arab world and of being outmaneuvered by the U.K. and especially France, both more aggressive advocates of intervention.
Col. Moammar Gadhafi, Libya's leader, himself helped, unifying the U.N. powers with a relentless military campaign that threatened to snuff out a pro-democracy rebellion and set off a bloodbath among rebels and civilians. That prospect alarmed Obama advisors including U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice and National Security Council staffer Samantha Power. Both had made their names in part by arguing the West's inaction during the Rwandan genocide in the 1990s made it morally complicit.
"Susan Rice didn't want a Rwanda on her hands," said a senior Arab diplomat deeply involved in the negotiations.
The uprising had begun in mid-February, when disaffected Libyans in the country's east, heartened by revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, took to the streets and seized control of the city of Benghazi. After the revolt spread, Col. Gadhafi's forces rallied behind tanks and airpower and launched a fierce counterattack. Until the U.N. passed its resolution, loyalist forces appeared ready to retake Benghazi.
The Arab League, not the U.S., should be responsible for containing Moammar Gadhafi's ambitions in Libya, Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie Gelb says. In the "Big Interview" with the Journal's John Bussey, Gelb also warns against deepening U.S. involvement in that country.
With images of the fighting spreading around the globe, the U.S. found itself lagging the more aggressive postures taken by Europe. On Feb. 28, British Prime Minister David Cameron declared, "We must not tolerate this regime using military force against its own people," and orrdered his Ministry of Defence to begin drawing plans to forcibly close Libyan air space to Col. Gadhafi's military planes—a so-called no-fly zone.
The zeal for action was slower to crystallize in Paris. But on March 10, Mr. Sarkozy met with two representatives of the Libyan Transitional National Council, the main Libyan opposition. Afterward, a Sarkozy spokesman said France would recognize the National Council as the "legitimate representative of the Libyan people." The same day, French officials said they would propose airstrikes under a U.N. resolution, if Arab countries gave support.
But the Americans remained elusive. "We knew we needed the U.S. in order for any military action to work," said a French diplomat.
A few days after the violence spiked on Feb 17, Mr. Obama had asked Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to craft military options for Libya. The president sought etailed pros and cons for each option, including cost estimates.
The Pentagon, already running wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, was leery—and officials made no secret of it. "We're kinda busy," is the way one U.S. defense official describes the thinking in the Pentagon, citing the strain on U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Other Navy forces were needed in the Persian Gulf to keep Iran in check.
Sensitive to the perception in the Arab world that the U.S. was waging wars against Islam, the administration never thought seriously of sending U.S. ground forces to Libya.
On March 2, with calls for a no-fly zone rising, Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a congressional hearing: "Let's just call a spade a spade. ... A no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya." A Defense official said Mr. Gates wasn't trying to shoot down the idea but to push back at what he saw as "flip and cavalier" comments from lawmakers and Libyan opposition leaders that such an undertaking would be simple and risk-free.
On March 11, the interventionists most more ground when other European Union leaders refused to endorse Franco-British military proposals.
But as the West debated, Col. Gadhafi marched, his bombs and troops pushing eastward and fraying rebel forces. At a March 10 Senate hearing, the national intelligence director, James Clapper, predicted Col. Gadhafi would eventually prevail.
Two days later came the first public sign of a shift, when the Arab League endorsed the no-fly zone. That paid immediate diplomatic dividends, U.S. officials said, as Russia quickly indicated it wouldn't veto a new resolution and China followed suit.
"Active Arab participation was a necessary condition for the U.S.," said Nawaf Salam, Lebanon's ambassador to the U.N., and a central player in drafting the resolution.
Then, on her Paris trip last Monday, Mrs. Clinton met not just with Mr. Sarkozy but with members of the Libyan opposition, a critical step in shifting her views, U.S. officials said.
Intelligence officials had worried that the rebels included Islamist politicians and extremist groups. But Mrs. Clinton was reassured by a meeting with Mahmoud Jibril, an opposition leader and economist.
Fears were growing, meanwhile, that any U.N. action would come too late. The French pressed Washington, telling its diplomats that Paris and London could launch military strikes unilaterally. "I think the U.S. realized that it could be left behind," said a French diplomat.
By Tuesday, a shift was underway. At a late-afternoon meeting, Mr. Obama told top officials that U.S. and international pressure was not stopping Col. Gadhafi and that a no-fly zone alone wasn't enough to stave off defeat for the rebels. He asked for a more military and diplomatic options.
That night, the president dined with top U.S. military commanders as National Security Adviser Tom Donilon sketched out new military and diplomatic options. Top officials reconvened at 9 p.m. Two hours later, Mr. Obama instructed Mrs. Rice to push for a U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the use of "all necessary measures" to protect civilians.
"I think mass atrocities, and the specter of mass killings, really gave a sense of urgency and gravity to what might occur if he went into Benghazi," said Ms. Rice. "Anyone who has had any previous experience with genocide or with mass atrocities had to be aware of this."
On Thursday, the resolution passed, with the U.S. and nine other Security Council members voting for it, five abstaining, and none voting against.
"For a while, I was worried we would be abandoned," said Ali Aujali, who was Libya's ambassador to Washington before breaking with Col. Gadhafi last month. He had met with Mrs. Clinton last week to press the rebels' cause. "The march of the liberation of the Libyan people," he said, "must not stop."
Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com and Alistair MacDonald at |
|