技术分析讲座: 如何分析与判断图表--by Carrie

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技术分析讲座: 如何分析与判断图表 By Joe Qi Source: www.screenulator.com Index - Chart patterns       - Double top / Double bottom       - Head and Shoulder       - Flat channel breakout - Trendlines       - Breakouts       - Wedges       - Channels - Oscillators       - RSI (Relative Strength Index) Chart patterns Double top / double bottom Briefing:Sometimes called an "M" (or "W" for double bottom) formation because of the pattern it creates on the chart, the double top is one of the most frequently seen and common of the patterns. Because they seem to be so easy to identify, the double top should be approached with caution by the investor. A double top occurs when prices form two distinct peaks on a chart. A double top is only complete, however, when prices decline below the lowest low - the "valley floor" - of the pattern. The two tops should be distinct and sharp. The pattern is complete when prices decline below the lowest low in the formation. The lowest low is called the confirmation point. 下载 (4.29 KB) 2 小时前 下载 (2.13 MB) 2 小时前 A double top often forms in active markets, experiencing heavy trading. A stock's price heads up rapidly on high volume. Demand falls off and price falls, often remaining in a trough for weeks or months. A second run-up in the price occurs taking the price back up to the level achieved by the first top. This time volume is heavy but not as heavy as during the first run-up. Stock prices fall back a second time, unable to pierce the resistance level. These two sharp advances with relatively heavy volume have exhausted the buying power in the stock. Without that power behind it, the stock reverses its upward movement and falls into a downward trend. How to use it?: Generally, the you want to enter a position as soon as the neck line is broken, and close the position when the target price is reached. Target price is calculated based on the amplitude of the two peaks or valleys - the equal distance from the top to the neck line. It is up to you to determine the break through neck line criteria as well as exit conditions - stoploss and profit taking. Also, you must interpret the quality of the shape. Screenulator has included the "Horizontal symmetry index" to aid this purpose. Screenulator table values: Because of relative abundance of double top pattern, Screenulator has added many parameter criteria to weed out irregular and assymetrical ones, and their values are indicated in the data table. 1st top        The date when the first top is detected 2nd top        The date when the second top is detected Vertical Symmetry        This is the variation between 1st and 2nd top, 0 being no difference (1st and 2nd top has the exact same height), and 1 being completely different. At the time of writing, a limit of 0.4 is set to be the maximum value for this parameter, which means the difference between two tops should not exceed 40% for the pattern to be qualified as double top. Horizontal Symmetry        This measures how symmetrical the pattern is from left to right, with the mid point at the head peak. 0 - mean the most symmetrical, and 1 being completely asymetrical. At the time of writing, a limit of 0.3 is set so that no pattern with symmetry score more than 0.3 are screened. Volume score        This is the ratio of volume around peak 1 to the volume around peak 2. This is important because the pattern is the strongest with the increasing volume. Because there is a debate as to how important the increasing volume is and weather or not a pattern should be disqualified soled based on lack of increasing volume, there is no limit placed on this parameter. It is simply shown as an information to the readers so they can make their own decision. Between regularity        This measures the maximum deviation of any local peaks (if there is any) to the neck line, and its ratio to the average height of the two peaks. This essentially measures the regularity of the shape between two peaks. If there is no local peaks between the two major tops/bottoms, then the score is 0. If there is a peak more significant than the other two major tops/bottoms, then the score is greater than 1, which never happens because the pattern would be invalid. At the time of writing, the maximum value of this parameter is set to 0.75. Tail regularity        A well formed double top pattern should have an acending tail (time span preceding the first top), and for double bottom, the descending tail. This parameter measures the ratio of difference between all local peaks preceeding the first top to the neckline to the height of the first major top. Essentially, it measures how regular the tail looks like (if it was acending smoothly or with peaks that have heights comparable to the first major peak). At the time of this writing, the maximum value of 1 is permitted. Head and shoulder Briefing: A classical chart pattern. Many text books claim that this is one of the most reliable chart patterns, our partner qi-research.com was not able to verify it with its back testing methodology. However, because of its notable popularity, it is useful to include as one of the filters. As depicted below, the classic head and shoulders top looks like a human head with shoulders on either side of the head. A perfect example of the pattern has three sharp high points, created by three successive rallies in the price of the stock. 下载 (3.8 KB) 2 小时前 下载 (9.6 KB) 2 小时前 The first point - the left shoulder - occurs as the price of the stock in a rising market hits a high and then falls back. The second point - the head - happens when prices rise to an even higher high and then fall back again. The third point - the right shoulder - occurs when prices rise again but don't hit the high of the head. Prices then fall back again once they have hit the high of the right shoulder. The shoulders are definitely lower than the head and, in a classic formation, are often roughly equal to one another. A key element of the pattern is the neckline. The neckline is formed by drawing a line connecting two low price points of the formation. The first low point occurs at the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the uptrend to the head. The second marks the end of the head and the beginning of the upturn to the right shoulder. The neckline can be horizontal or it can slope up or down. However, as Elaine Yager, Director of Technical Analysis at Investec Ernst and Company in New York and a member of Recognia's Board of Advisors points out, a Head and Shoulders Top neckline that is sloping downwards is highly unusual and demonstrates extreme weakness. The pattern is complete when the support provided by the neckline is "broken." This occurs when the price of the stock, falling from the high point of the right shoulder, moves below the neckline. Technical analysts will often say that the pattern is not confirmed until the price closes below the neckline - it is not enough for it to trade below the neckline. A classic head and shoulders top has been described above. There are many variations, some of which are described here and can be just as valid as the classic formation. Other factors - including volume and the quality of the breakout - should be considered in conjunction with the pattern itself. How to use it?: Generally, the you want to enter a position as soon as the neck line is broken, and close the position when the target price is reached, which is a move down (for reverse head and shoulder, move up) the equal distance from the tip of the head to the neck line. It is up to you to determine the break through neck line criteria as well as exit conditions - stoploss and profit taking. Also, you must interpret the quality of the shape. Screenulator has included the "Horizontal symmetry index" to aid this purpose. Screenulator table values: left shoulder        The date when the left shoulder is detected. This is a local maxima for upright pattern, and local minima for reverse pattern. head        The date when the head is detected. This is a local maxima for upright pattern, and local minima for reverse pattern. Head is between left and right shoulder, and must protrude more than either left or right shoulders. right shoulder        The date when the right shoulder is detected. This is a local maxima for upright pattern, and local minima for reverse pattern. Horizontal Symmetry        This measures how symmetrical the pattern is from left to right, with the mid point at the head peak. 0 - mean the most symmetrical, and 1 being completely asymetrical. At the time of writing, a limit of 0.3 is set so that no pattern with symmetry score more than 0.3 are screened. Flat channel breakout Briefing:This is when a long period of narrow trading range followed by sudden increase in price and volume, effectively breaking out of the narrow trading range. This kind of pattern has been described in books such as "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas", and "Stan Weinstein, Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets". 下载 (882 Bytes) 2 小时前 How to use it?:Generally, this is a continuation pattern, so you want to buy after the first retracement. However, you could try to fade it after the initial breakout, and cover on the first retracement. Screenulator table values: mean deviation        Mathematically, this is square root of percentage variance of price bars to the best fit line (drawn in the chart), during the set time span. In English, it means how volatile the stock was during the "flat channel" phase of the pattern. slope (%/day)        This is the slope of the best fit line during the "flat channel" phase of the pattern. Average volume        The average volume during the "flat channel" phase breakout volume        The single day volume on the break out day. At this time of writing, the breakout volume is set to be at least 3 times the average volume during the "flat channel" phase breakout percentage        The single day percentage change on the detected breakout day. Trendlines A trend line is a straight line connecting peak points in a chart. It is significant in both identifying trends and determining entry and exit points for traders. In screenulator, a trend line must consists of at least 3 points in a straight line with a standard deviation limit - meaning the points can deviate from the line a little bit but not too much. Sometimes, you will see a chart with a lot of trendlines cluttered together. I call them trend line bundles. They usually indicate a very strong trend because there are a lot of small and large peaks creating overlapping lines. Sometimes, you will see trendlines that does not make intuitive sense, such as connecting points you do not consider being significant tops/bottoms, then you can discard it as you see fit. The automatically generated trendlines are meant as a guide for you to make your own decisions instead of spoon feeding you the final answers. Trendlines are also important because a lot of chart patterns are defined by them as follows: Breakouts Briefing:This is when a trend line is penetrated deep enough the line is qualified as broken. It is divided into two categories, top lines and bottom lines. The exact algorithm for determining how deep or how long of a time period the price bar has to penetrate the trend line is proprietary, but it is sufficient to say that it is based on the length, slope and the "average amplitude" of the trend line. Average amplitude of the trend line is the calculated of all the peaks and valleys along the trend line and their distances to the line. 下载 (1.91 KB) 2 小时前 下载 (1.42 KB) 2 小时前 How to use it?: It depends on your strategy or trading system. Generally, when a trend line is broken, it signals the end of the trend. So if you are a trend trader, you would sell when a up (bottom) trendline is broken, and buy (top) trendline is broken). But you could also use this filter as an alert and wait for the break out to reach sufficient distance then try to fade it. It is up to you. You can even combine it with other indicators, most popular ones being oscillators. Screenulator table values: line length This is the time between the last point (peak or valley) on the line and the most recent point on the line. slope (%/day) This is the average slope of the top/bottom pair measured in percentage price change per day. Average amplitude The average distance between the points on the line (peaks or valleys) to the line. The larger this number usually indicates the volatility of the stock as well as the magnitude of penetration required to effectively "break" the trend line. Wedges Briefing: Sometimes also called "triangular consolidation" - is formed when converging trendlines of support and resistance gives the triangle pattern its distinctive shape. This occurs because "the trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force." Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the pattern look like an increasingly tight coil moving across the chart. As the range between the peaks and troughs marking the progression of price narrows, the trendlines meet at the "apex," located at the right of the chart. The "base" of the triangle is the vertical line at the left of the chart which measures the vertical height of the pattern. 下载 (3.92 KB) 2 小时前     下载 (1.45 KB) 2 小时前 How to use it?: It depends on your strategy or trading system. Generally, a trade decision should be made when either top or bottom trend line is broken. Once one of the trend line is broken, the price movement will become increasinly volatile until a clear directional trend is established. qi-research.com did some preliminary research into this pattern, but no conclusion was made for which direction it more likely to take. But one thing for sure is increased volatility. So perhaps, straddle options strategy could be used here. Screenulator table values: average % slope        : This is the average slope of the top/bottom pair measured in percentage price change per day. average volatility        : this is the average volatility for the duration of the longest trend line of the top/bottom pair. Daily volatility is calculated by Screenulator as Max (today's range, absolute_value_of(today's close - yesterday's close)). This value is useful for determining the likelihood of reaching the target RSI value, 30 or 70 or any other user-defined value Channels Briefing: Channels are formed when two trend lines, one top, one bottom with more or less parallel slope acts as a pair of support and resistance for the price movement in the chart. Screenulator limits the steepness to be less than 0.5%/day. 下载 (1.36 KB) 2 小时前 Screenulator table values: average % slope : This is the average slope of the top/bottom pair measured in percentage price change per day. At this time of writing, the maximum limit of average slope is set to 0.5%. average volatility : this is the average volatility for the duration of the longest trend line of the top/bottom pair. Daily volatility is calculated by Screenulator as Max (today's range, absolute_value_of(today's close - yesterday's close)). This value is useful for determining the likelihood of reaching the target RSI value, 30 or 70 or any other user-defined value Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index) Briefing: A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula: RSI = 100 -         100          ______         1 + RS RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes As you can see from the chart below, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. As you can see from the chart below, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. 下载 (15.65 KB) 2 小时前 How to use it?: A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stock-picking tools. Usage recommended by Screenulator: According to qi-research Relying on RSI method alone is not a good way to trade. As historical testing shows overall loss, especially if you trade against the overall market trend. To make profitable trades using RSI indicator you must correctly predict the major market trend in the period specified with RSI period parameter. Screenulator table values: We have multiple filter for RSI. RSI(x) where x is the number of days. 14 day is the most widely used and therefore watched and used by the most number of traders and generally have more effect on the market. The next most widely used is 30 day period. RSI value        this corresponds to the RSI value obtained by the above formula. 70 is considered overbought, and 30 is considered oversold. Price change to RSI 30/70        this value is unique to screenulator. It means the amount of price change required in the next trading session in order for the RSI value to reach 30 or 70. I find it useful to see how strong to the RSI value obtained by the above formula. 70 is considered overbought, and 30 is considered oversold. I use this value to calculate the "potential" price gain / or potential risk associated with the stock if I believe it is bound to head towards RSI 30 or RSI 70. Volatility        this is the average volatility during the past x days, where x is the RSI period parameter. Daily volatility is calculated by Screenulator as Max (today's range, absolute_value_of(today's close - yesterday's close)). This value is useful for determining the likelihood of reaching the target RSI value, 30 or 70 or any other user-defined value

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