SPX 2015-12-11

austinjoe

There are enough 1F 线段 swings during Nov 20 -- Nov 30, 2015 to build a 30F zone 2070.29 [2084.13, 2093.81] 2097.06 which holds the market for the past 3 weeks. Thursday SPX 2067.65 finally made the 3rd sell of this 30F zone, which is validated by Friday gap down.

The nearest 1F zone 2013.93 [2021.39, 2024.08] 2034.34 was built in Friday. The closest 5F zone could be built by 2/3/4/5 or 4/5/6/7. The red one 5F zone on the chart is built by 中枢扩张, it helps to locate 5F 3rd sell on 7 (as 7 is higher than 4, hence it's not 3rd sell for 5F zone 2/3/4/5 is build this way), plus 3 1F 走势  4/5/6/7 made the 3rd sell for the top 30F zone [2084.13, 2093.81] on Nov 20 -- 30.

Min requirement for BEAR:

1> Needs to drop bellow 2005.5 by 12:40ET next Monday to void the potential 盘整背驰 on 5F level.

2> Needs to drop bellow 1977.82 by 11:10ET next Monday to void the potential 盘整背驰 on 1F zone [2021.39, 2024.08]. SPX drop from 2067.65 to 2021.39 in 80 mins, now we needs too see how BEAR could push down from 2024.08 Monday morning.

Since market gets into extreme over sold status Friday afternoon, plus Friday 5 min chart shows a falling wedge pattern, which is bullish. BULL could bounce up violently any time as both 30F zone and 5F zone has 3rd sell to end their life.

Seasonality next Monday is the 11th trading day of Dec that BEAR still has edge, after that it's BULL friendly till end of the year -- this is what Santa Rally stands for. Keep in mind that there are 5F zone [2070.37, 2085.00] and 30F zone [2084.13, 2093.81] just above for BULL to surpass.

IMHO, this 2015 Santa won't provide a big gift as past few years -- 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014 all gets new high of the year, 2011 not high of the year, but still rise up, only 2012 is Santa down time.

ysc

风行过

捷思

xyy

austinjoe

BEAR voided 5F盘整背驰 today but failed on 1F盘整背驰. BULL needs to rise above 2030 right after opening tomorrow to void 1F线段背驰, then watch 2024.4, 2019.2, 2006.7 for BEAR counter attack strength.