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本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-6-2 01:38 PM 编辑
As always, let's start our weekly thread with weekly chart overview.
The second week's pullback can be attributed to the consistent weakness in the bond market, which apparently leads to the rising yields across the board. If you have been into investment and trending for some time, you should know by now rising yield is bad for economy. As can be vividly demonstrated with the much weaker performance of real estate related industries. And the latter has been a key focus of the FED QE policies. If real estate goes south from here, US is guaranteed to go back to recession AGAIN!
Apparently, nobody can predict for sure whether the trend will continue, since FED's policy is tied to the performance of the labor market and the overall economy. So even FED can't say for sure whether they can taper soon or not. Nevertheless, we should also know that there cannot be very extremely bearish movement in bond prices, since FED will apparently not taper if this rising yield expectation slows down the economy down the road. Some equilibrium will be achieved sometime in the next 12 months.
Given this overall FA picture, we shall look at the price actions with some reservation. Overall, bonds are testing the necklines of the top spanning most of the 2013 months. So a rebound is possible, but they are posed to go further down. Of course, JGB is different, which may have bottomed and may resume its rise due to the QE there. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2013-6-2 12:33 PM
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发表于 2013-6-2 06:07 PM
