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Forex/Futures ST for Week 4/22-4/26

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发表于 2013-4-21 01:19 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


Let's have some bigger pictures when opening this thread ... So all views are in weekly charts.

First on indices:

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 01:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
1. SPX is still above the neckline, so can't say for sure it will start its intermediate term decline.
2. A top of this level usually last couple of weeks and usually there is another high in the weekly chart.
3. RSI is still too high. It can only be lower when a few weeks' consolidation is followed with another try at the high.

The bad:
The reversal bar, if followed with a small body consolidation at the low of the bear bar would be a bad sign of further down. So let's wait and see.
SPX 500(Weekly)20130421101331.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 01:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
DAX has gone ahead down the neckline and a consolidation below the neckline would make it as real as it can be ... also note the MACD cross over and RSI value.
DAX(Weekly)20130421102756.png

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DAX 连跌6天到support,我觉得周一该反弹了  发表于 2013-4-21 10:33 PM
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 01:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
RUSSELL is weaker than SPX, but it just touched MA20, if you look a previous up legs, it should try to rebound first ...
RSI is still high
But MACD has crossed over.
US Small Cap 2000(Weekly)20130421103604.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 01:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
NIKKEI seems to be perfectly fine on the weekly chart, maybe we shouldn't have closed our long at all last week.
Our decision was based on the usual correlations of all risk assets and we were turning bearish towards SPX.

Maybe this time it's really different or maybe SPX indeed will have another attempt at the high?
Japan 225(Weekly)20130421103753.png
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发表于 2013-4-21 07:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
Next on bonds ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
US 10yr is still trying to break out the key S/R for several weeks ...
You don't think you want to bet an eminent breakout in this ... it tends to reverse at extrema in the past, so have to make sure the breakout is real before jumping in.
US 10 YR T-Note(Weekly)20130421202926.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:33 PM | 显示全部楼层
German 10yr is stronger, and is forming a large ascending triangle ... not a surprise.
Euro Bund(Weekly)20130421203016.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
JGB 10yr is showing no slow down of inflush of fund back into Japan, confusing ... though this is consistent with the weekly funding flow data by MOF.
Japan Govt. Bond(Weekly)20130421203253.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
Currency majors ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
EURO got rejected by ma20 and a key S/R ... more consolidation here is more likely
EURUSD(Weekly)20130421204301.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
GBP/USD up trend is gone after a dojo and bear bar reversal ... consolidating at a S/R level right now.
GBPUSD(Weekly)20130421205720.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-21 11:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
AUD/USD is still in a range as we have assessed in the past.
AUDUSD(Weekly)20130421205509.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:00 AM | 显示全部楼层
USD/JPY had a scary pullback last week, but is testing previous high ... a decisive breakout means we shall long again ... looking for 110 in the coming months.
USDJPY(Weekly)20130421210215.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:01 AM | 显示全部楼层
So our favorite trades are still NKD and 6J it seems ... waiting for a swing low to initiate the longs would be a good idea in the coming days.
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:04 AM | 显示全部楼层
GOLD a key S/R ahead ... rebounding is doing well, in part due to the booming demand in the cash market in Asia.
Gold(Weekly)20130421210535.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
A consolidation in copper means bears are still in town.
Copper(Weekly)20130421210503.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:06 AM | 显示全部楼层
Crude is similar to copper ... these commodities actions are indicating the SPX rally might be the last one bulls can see for a while.
Crude Oil(Weekly)20130421210723.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-4-22 12:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
NG is fine ...
Natural Gas(Weekly)20130421210851.png

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