Forex/Futures ST for Week 12/16- 12/21

greenback

Sorry for the late start this week ... I'm switching to an iMac with 27' to have a better view of the market ... so all the plots have to be redrawn ... This is a huge limitation for using TOS ...

Let's start with stocks ... I think so far so good. This is consistent with last week's week: the intermediate term pattern was not that bad.

1) This up leg started at 50% fibo retrace, which is good, at least better than last down leg. See the light grey lines.

2) The 100% MM target was met. See the pink lines.

greenback

TF is still more bullish: it didn't lose as much turf as ES ... However, only 61.8% MM target was reached so far ...

greenback

Supporting the bullish actions is the actions of bonds: All three seem to break down from the intermediate top pattern ...

The backtest of the neclines in ZB and ZN are making the breakdown as real as it can get.

greenback

CL is doing great ... let's wait for the fat bottom to break out ...

greenback

If you want to be bullish in GOLD, wait for the 1725 to be decisively taken out first ... better come with a back test in success.

aimei

greenback

If you are not in EURO, wait for the key S/R level to be taken out decisively first ...

greenback

AUD is weaker than EURO ... a surprise given the strength of the Chinese market.
It's forming a triangle. Don't trade it yet ... this pattern tends to lead to whipsaw though it's a continuation pattern, which is still in a bullish trend.

aimei

老大.
what is the target of EURO?
1.34xx?

quietplayer

greenback 发表于 2012-12-17 08:34 PM
If you want to be bullish in GOLD, wait for the 1725 to be decisively taken out first ... better com ...

老大，通常金子都是领先市场的，这次怎么滞后了呢？

greenback

quietplayer 发表于 2012-12-17 06:04 PM
老大，通常金子都是领先市场的，这次怎么滞后了呢？

Do you think the crisis has been solved? See the breaking news on the other thread.

greenback

aimei 发表于 2012-12-17 05:34 PM
老大.
what is the target of EURO?
1.34xx?

I dare not to image the 100% target. Let's reach the previous highs first ...

九天

greenback 发表于 2012-12-17 08:37 PM
If you are not in EURO, wait for the key S/R level to be taken out decisively first ...

It seems the key S/R level of EURUSD was taken out,
the first target would be 1，3276, only a hope。

aimei

greenback 发表于 2012-12-17 11:09 PM
I dare not to image the 100% target. Let's reach the previous highs first ...

感谢老大

aimei

老大
GOLD 为啥跌的嘎狠?

greenback

aimei 发表于 2012-12-18 09:05 AM
老大
GOLD 为啥跌的嘎狠?

I'm not sure ... it could be that the short-term inflation expectation is low so gold is no longer a good hedge to preserve capital.

Since we only trade on price action patterns, we take whatever opportunities the market gives us.

greenback

quietplayer 发表于 2012-12-17 06:04 PM
老大，通常金子都是领先市场的，这次怎么滞后了呢？

GOLD is now in the opposite direction of other risk assets! Very hard to understand ...

However, understanding every move is not important in trading. The bottom line is we have to trade only based on price action pattern but nothing else. That's why we provide the daily analysis for EACH asset here.

quietplayer

greenback 发表于 2012-12-18 02:05 PM
GOLD is now in the opposite direction of other risk assets! Very hard to understand ...

However ...

正解！分析各个风险资产的相互关联是可以的，但是交易的核心还是要看重所交易的风险资产本身的走势以及目标，不然就陷入误区。
也可能有时候风险资产之间的关联有时间差，MM正是利用这点兴风作浪，这样榨取Squeeze 的超额利润也未可知。。。

这次的黄金连续几个下降三角形，很熊，与其他风险资产形成很大的反差，虽然困惑，但也只能顺势而为。。。

greenback

So AUD actually is breaking down from the triangle. Now I see a descending triangle ... if it breaks down here, the 100% target is 1.047

greenback

Nice break out in EURO. Hope you have jumped in already! Next stop 1.3279, which is also 61.8% MM target.