F

Diffusion

基本面 --- 很诱人。

Value: Dirt cheap
PE: 2 (not a typo)
Cash per share: $7. So if we back out the cash, it's only $2 a share. With $4+ earnings, the real PE is 0.5.

Risk:
1. High debt to equity ratio，around 3.5
这个应该是股价便宜的主要原因。因为债务负担重，F有破产的危险。但是现在bond yield很低，F的债务评级又刚刚被调高。Ｆ应该很容易revolve debt。所以破产的风险其实是很低的。
2. Europe and China exposure
　　因为Europe and China经济都在滑坡，Ｆ在这两个地区的revenue会受影响。可能会慢慢削弱公司的实力。但是过去两年，F的cash per share一直维持在$7 per share以上。说明公司的实力并为被削弱。

技术面
8.75触底后反弹到9.8遇阻，沿50MA回调。反弹弱，回调深。回调走完两腿，技术面上看觉不是强势股，但是已经慢慢走强。而且从今天走法看，有起飞的兆头。

结论
长线可以介入。短线可以等decisively break $9.8，下破9.4要当心。

NZX

源济

茜茜

谢D da 的精辟分析。我有一些长线的F股票。
能否从基本面看看Renn，图形太不好看了。想找个反弹卖掉手中的股票。
SPF is good stock. Sad to missed this round.

Diffusion

茜茜 发表于 2012-9-4 03:03 PM
谢D da 的精辟分析。我有一些长线的F股票。
能否从基本面看看Renn，图形太不好看了。想找个反弹卖掉手中的 ...

我不做中概的。太闹心了。Renn单从图上看有破位的可能，再跌的话可能要考虑止损了。

RedBean

好分析！

chickencoop

顶D大，好分析
来自: 九号胡同 iPhone客户端来自: iPhone客户端

开小差

bokchoy888

blessed

how about gm?  I got a new GM lease car last week, most 2012 models are gone, and people are waiting for 2013 model, dealers are very busy weekend(maybe it is month/year end last week?)

Diffusion

blessed 发表于 2012-9-4 08:35 PM
how about gm?  I got a new GM lease car last week, most 2012 models are gone, and people are waiting ...

gm's balance sheet is much better, but PE is also much higher: 7.6. But GM's chart looks better. However, there is analysis suggesting that GM may lose market share to F.

当时惘然

我也来拜山头，学习一下。
能给俺加点分吗？D大... ...

茜茜

D 大, 你的FA真好.

茜茜

Cut Renn. Not touch Zhong Gai any more.

Diffusion

茜茜 发表于 2012-9-5 10:20 AM
Cut Renn. Not touch Zhong Gai any more.

今天F走的不错。9.8的阻力比较关键。

rightonmoney

茜茜

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-5 11:11 AM
今天F走的不错。9.8的阻力比较关键。

Yeah, will watch it closely.

当时惘然

厉害呀。佩服。。。

silkway

blessed

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-4 09:30 PM
gm's balance sheet is much better, but PE is also much higher: 7.6. But GM's chart looks better. H ...