Forex/Futures Outlook 07/19 - 07/20

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:18 PM

Okay, not a bad day for bulls ...

The most exciting news is that CRUDE actually reached our target within 24 hours! Amazing ...
GBP also broke out ... AUD retested channel upper bound ...
Finally NQ also regained its strength, both NQ and ES are consolidating below the previous high.

The bottom line is that bulls should be safe for at least another day.

Let's start Forex first:

AUD is still strong ... expect a pullback anytime now after hitting the channel ... should be another leg after the pullback.

GBP broke out, but we have a rising wedge now ... this is a bearish pattern ... there is a possibility to back test before any further bullish movements.

Nothing much new in EURO and JPY ...

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:19 PM

CRUDE is doing great. I think it's safe to buy dip now in CL ...

GC remain in the triangle ...

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:20 PM

Bonds might be in the process of forming a top, in both ZB and ZN ... with ZB a bit weaker.
But it's not breaking down YET.

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:24 PM

NQ is turning stronger: it overshot the trend line in the last push up. Very good!

Both NQ and ES are consolidating below the previous high. Expecting a pullback from here any time now. Overall, bulls are safe, but the pullback has to be small for the bullish call to be maintained. If not, the next back test of a (lower) high would be the time to get out.

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:28 PM

本帖最后由 greenback 于 2012-7-19 05:31 PM 编辑

Futures Charts Daily.png

Let's look at the daily chart to see any potential new trend. Apparent CRUDE is the one!

chickencoop · 发表于 2012-7-19 04:34 PM

Jennyahwu · 发表于 2012-7-19 06:34 PM

回复 greenback 的帖子

greenback, if pullback, what is pullback entry point? 90?thanks

kdkboy · 发表于 2012-7-19 10:37 PM

What happen to Nikki, diving like a stone

Greenback, I though AUD/USD is top of 5 waves, am I right?

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 10:44 PM

Jennyahwu 发表于 2012-7-19 07:34 PM
回复 greenback 的帖子

greenback, if pullback, what is pullback entry point? 90?thanks

It's hard to say how much the pullback will be ... I often look at the price pattern for reversal ...
However, 90 would be too deep to be healthy. I think a reasonable target is 91 to 92 ... <=50% between the high and previous consolidation level (89).

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-19 10:50 PM

kdkboy 发表于 2012-7-19 11:37 PM
What happen to Nikki, diving like a stone

Greenback, I though AUD/USD is top of 5 waves, am I ri ...

I only see a down of 0.3% ... not a biggy.
I don't use wave, but I think AUD just finished the up leg and is still strong. It's reversing, so should be another up leg to complete the uptrend due to the current strength.

Jennyahwu · 发表于 2012-7-19 11:32 PM

本帖最后由 Jennyahwu 于 2012-7-20 12:34 AM 编辑

回复 greenback 的帖子

thank your explaination. for me, I expected it go back to test 89-90. :) now I know health pullback is 50% between consolidation and new high. ( 93.2-89)/2+89 . thanks a lot

kdkboy · 发表于 2012-7-21 10:50 AM

周末重看，俺对油有个恶毒的猜想，重新回77，做W底，但要看大盘怎么配合了

另外我是觉得油本轮上涨到此结束了，92填了gap，伺候再高冲的可能性不高了，拭目以待吧

AUD的暴涨是我不明白的；除非中国真的要印钱

greenback · 发表于 2012-7-23 07:25 PM

kdkboy 发表于 2012-7-21 11:50 AM
周末重看，俺对油有个恶毒的猜想，重新回77，做W底，但要看大盘怎么配合了

另外我是觉得油本轮上涨到此结 ...

So you almost get what you want. Any plan?

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Forex/Futures Outlook 07/19 - 07/20

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