Forex/Futures Outlook 07/05 - 07/06

greenback

Hope you had a great firework day! I did and I took another day off for myself ...

Well, why not. The market retreated as expected and most likely it will go on for a while ... Nevertheless, I have to say so far bulls are safe ... it's time for bears to play and you should let them do their jobs ... That's why we always see waves in the market ...

The lines for us to watch are labeled yellow. Yes we have a new channel in both ES and NQ. I also labeled the fib levels to assess the pullback strength. As always, we can only wait and see before making the next call. Since nobody can predict how much the pullback would be, I actively took a partial profit on the NYMO extreme before the holiday as I mentioned to you in the post.



See you tonight for outlooks of other assets ...

greenback

Next let's look at forex:

EURO finally broke down, either due to rate cut by ECB and/or its out negative outlook on European economy. Most likely it will challenge the previous low. Let's see how it gets challenged.



AUD is consolidating above the breakout, this is bullish ... also bullish to commodities.



USD/JPY broke out from a triangle, this thing rarely goes one way nonstop, so most likely it will pullback first before continue going up ... again the call for the previous low (or prevoius low in 6J) still holds.

bucks

chickencoop

Thanks for the updates!

开小差

greenback

Now bonds:

ZB still has no clear direction ... ZN seems to turn stronger ...

greenback

Finally commodities:

CRUDE is consolidating after the crazy 10% rally ... looks like it will go down to 85 to test that support in this leg ... let's see when the pull back will stop to assess the next move ...



The big picture for GOLD remains to be the same ... the down trend line, or the giant triangle still hold ...

silicon_beaver

Oil is on my watch radar.
But no courage to play GLD.

greenback

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-7-6 12:47 AM
Oil is on my watch radar.
But no courage to play GLD.

Have to be very quick in trading both ...

kdkboy

my estimation of oil support is around 84, will buy some once reach.

Now hold short positions of Oil, Gold,Silver, will add more once job data is not good. I don't believe MM will still up even job data is good since MM somehow overbought. Also close watch US dollar index, would be disaster for bull once break 83

I trade too aggressively

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-7-6 01:58 AM
my estimation of oil support is around 84, will buy some once reach.

Now hold short positions of  ...

Are you following Cobra's intraday comments? You will benefit a lot from his real time chart comments ... You can then use the skills on hourly charts for ST on your assets of interests.

kdkboy

有种不好的感觉，今天美股会涨