06/28 - 06/29 DT

kdkboy

先替Greenback 老大开贴，主要是欧洲异动

欧元，突破1.246 consolidation area, rocket up
DAX    突破 6170，目前6255
Nikii    一直很奇怪在8800呆着干什么，现在9002




本人由于bidu被套，oil被套，基于自己订下的规则，只好坐看

chickencoop

老大，快出来看焰火

kdkboy

又违背原则了，EUR/USD 第一单已经锁利出来，第二单DAX准备拿到6360

主要原因是，如果这样的话，我的badu今天肯定解套，加盈利，再加上油解套的话，没有long仓位，有点可惜了
所以，又一次自己打自己耳光

greenback

Well, I don't know why and stock indices are so bullish. Yes, I meant bullish! Why?

1. There have been three clear push downs but the last one cannot make any significant lower low. Apparently big guys are defending the lows since 6/8. That's why I bought a dip of 1/8 position with a stop loss below this key S/R level at EOD.
2. The pushups are strong since last night, using the trend line analysis ... ES touched the trend line both last night and tonight and overshot.

I agree I don't get it why the market is cheering the news from Europe because the Italian and Spanish bond rates are still very high and Germany doesn't agree with the Euro bond idea. But let's follow the price action first and the stop loss is well defined and the target is the previous high around 6/16.

A note of caution is that NQ is weaker. I don't know whether this is AAPL related because TF is a lot stronger since yesterday (data not shown).

greenback

CL is promising and have probably bottomed. See the zigzag blue lines. Apparently the last push down is very weak and barely made a lower low. It's time to try the other direction.

GOLD is still weak ... tried to revisit the low and made a higher low. See the trend line, but it is still fighting the short term down trend.

greenback

Bonds broke out of the triangle and then come down, as expected from the triangle set up ... you have to be very quick in locking profit.

greenback

EURO's move is clearly consistent with all the risk-on assesses ... it has clearly broken out ...

JPY is turning stronger ... still below the BOJ pink line and above the down trend line. So trading breakout is better if you are betting weaker JPY as we did last time. I don't have a sense how to trade breakout for a stronger JPY though ... maybe 78.85 level is a must?

greenback

Sorry ... I didn't see your post ... I'll see whether I can move mine over ...

greenback

chickencoop 发表于 2012-6-28 23:07
老大，快出来看焰火

Thanks for the reminder! Just noticed the firework ... I don't get it. Well, can't fight the market ... Fortunately I bought the dip that I'm been waiting for at EOD ...

greenback

So this is how EU is kicking the can down the road again ... no doubt that Spanish/Italian bond rate will come down tomorrow ...

Euro Rises After EU Leaders Renounce Spain Loan Seniority
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... -economic-data.html

The euro surged the most this year after European leaders agreed to drop the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks give their governments preferred creditor status.

The European Union has “addressed the issues on the seniority of Spanish loans,” said Roy Teo, a currency strategist in Singapore at ABN Amro Private Bank. “That should help push down Spanish yields. It’s positive for the euro.”

The 17-nation euro surged as much as 1.5 percent, the biggest intraday advance since Nov. 30. It was up 1.2 percent to $1.2591 at 12:28 p.m. in Tokyo from the close in New York yesterday. The euro jumped 1.1 percent to 99.93 yen after earlier falling as much as 0.3 percent. The Japanese currency fetched 79.35 per dollar from 79.46.

The Australian dollar added 0.9 percent to $1.0136 and the New Zealand dollar rallied 0.7 percent to 79.35 U.S. cents.

EU leaders met in Brussels yesterday and today to discus measures to stem a debt crisis that’s spurred five euro members to seek international bailouts. They pledged to inject 120 billion euros ($151 billion) into the currency bloc’s economy.

Earlier this month, Spain agreed to take a rescue loan of as much as 100 billion euros to help recapitalize its banking sector. Italy’s 10-year bond yields climbed to a five-month high of 6.34 percent on June 14, approaching the 7 percent level that spurred Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts.

... ...

silicon_beaver

kdkboy 发表于 2012-6-28 20:10
又违背原则了，EUR/USD 第一单已经锁利出来，第二单DAX准备拿到6360

主要原因是，如果这样的话，我的bad ...

You still have oil positions?

I closed my oil today.
At EOD, I was asking myself why a red day but finance green. the news must have factored in, or leaked out.

kdkboy

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-6-29 01:29
You still have oil positions?

I closed my oil today.

Initially I short oil since a long red bar of 60 min, but I don't know how I think when I saw a "高手" long oil, I  change mind to long oil also, unfortunately it heavily under water.

Based on my exp, I thought oil bottom should around 7840, so I add more long positions, trade as I expect not I saw, then oil loss become big, I have to keep. I always repeat such kind of wrong tradings, very hard to change since it is a habit.

Luckily today seem to have a chance to escape.

kdkboy

greenback 发表于 2012-6-28 23:34
CL is promising and have probably bottomed. See the zigzag blue lines. Apparently the last push down ...

Could you explain why oil is bottom because of zigzag blue line? I read the chart, not understand

silicon_beaver

Is it possible a double top?  ES night shift.  

silicon_beaver

kdkboy 发表于 2012-6-28 23:09
Could you explain why oil is bottom because of zigzag blue line? I read the chart, not understand

Not 100% measured down. i.e. a weakened down movement.

Time to consider another direction.

silicon_beaver

--- kdkboy  按照MM要么不做，要么做绝的方式，今天应该不给熊熊任何机会  发表于 2012-6-28 23:18

Early night-shift, run by Asian. most are 胆小.
Late night-shift, run by European. They are not as strong as Sam MMs, but much more aggressive than Asian traders.

kdkboy

油简直太适合DT了，不过我不会这会short 油，风险太大了，只会long

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-6-29 02:09
Could you explain why oil is bottom because of zigzag blue line? I read the chart, not understand

Based on the so-called 3 (or more than 3)-pushdown/up pattern, where the last pushdown made virtually no lower low, i.e. a retest of the previous low without making any progress. This is an indication there is no more sellers. The same can be said in the topping process ...

九天

Is it good time to short EURUSD?
30Minute Chart tell me, thai CCI, Stoch,RSI, MFI indicate ok.
But MA and MACD indicate No.

MFTHT