06/04 - 06/05 DT

greenback

Let's review the daily charts to begin every day's analysis to have a big picture of the market ...
Both indices have retraced over 61.8% of the previous up leg since Dec 2011. This is clearly too much for a healthy correction ... So long-term wise, it's time to gradually build up your bond holdings ... I know it's a bit too late, but it's better late than not doing it. I remember we went over this well before this crash. Hope you did it, I did ...

greenback

Bonds are still reversing ... ZN is a bit ugly, a typical two-bar reversal for a possible top ... need to check follow-through ... ZB may go down to 38% retracement since the the breakout before going up again ...

greenback

GC is very bullish ... the target can be 1672 ... but CL downward momentum is simply too strong. I can't believe it would reverse just like GC ... Note that it overshot 100% of the last down leg in just four days!

greenback

Let's keep our fingers crossed on EURO. It's promising ...
For JPY, waiting is the key of the game ... this beast requires patience for big reward ...

greenback

Did you guys notice this?

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- In what may have been a bizarre coincidence, Monday's opening level and daily loss for China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index spelled out the date of the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing's Tiananmen Square -- on the 23rd anniversary of the incident. The index fell by 64.89 points, matching the 6/4/89 date of the event, which is known in Chinese as the "6-4 Incident." The Shanghai Composite's opening level, meanwhile, was 2,346.98, the last four digits of which contain the fateful date backwards. The strange congruence of the numbers didn't go unnoticed, creating chatter on the Internet and prompting Chinese sensors to block all microblogs referencing the Shanghai stock market, according to a Reuters report Tuesday.

bucks

源济

silicon_beaver

silicon_beaver

Congratulation. 六月特别推荐板块：DT研究室

胡同儿串子

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-6-4 17:00
Congratulation.

wow, GB老大

时时是好时

greenback

Greatly appreciate everyone's participation!

greenback

Midnight, 9pm CA time, I'll try to update with 4h charts ... First indices:

I have three evidences indicating that this incoming upswing might have some leg:

1. We have seen three down legs, see the blue zigzag lines (only ES shows it) ...
2. The downward momentum has reduced, see the MM retracements, the second down leg overshot 100%, but the third down leg stopped at <78.6%.
3. The main down trendline, yellow got retested successfully.

Both ES and NQ tell the same story, and NQ is a bit stronger ...

greenback

ZN is reversing hard ... it hasn't been like this before ... compare this leg with the previous bull flags ...
ZB is a bit better ... also reversing harder than the previous cases ...

greenback

Currencies move slower, so I'll stay with daily charts ...
EURO is out of the downtrend line and is doing fine so far ...
JPY is working hard to go weaker ... remember it is a slow mover, but when it does move, it moves big.

greenback

I want to sound less optimistic about GOLD ... so I still used the daily chart to make this point.
Note the down trendline (yellow) still needs to be broken out for GOLD bulls to prove themselves.
We had a failed cup&handle breakout failure that led to this third down leg, so whether bulls have a different fate, it remains to be seen.
As for CL, the only thing good about it is that it didn't hit 100% MM target in the last down leg from the triangle breakdown ...
Anyway, it needs time to work it out.

胡同儿串子

greenback 发表于 2012-6-4 21:35
I want to sound less optimistic about GOLD ... so I still used the daily chart to make this point.
...

九天

回复 greenback 的帖子

If we stay with 4H charts,  EURO may go up to Nr.1--Nr.5 retracement
because EURO is out of the downtrend line :

Nr.1 61.8% retracement = 1.26687

Nr.2 50.0% retracement = 1.27866

Nr.3 38.2% retracement = 1.29064

Nr.4 23.6% retracement = 1.30518

Nr.5 00.0% retracement = 1.32857

Can somebody tell me a direction of FA?

kdkboy

Japan still weak, Germany still consolidation, US future continue up, wish not a 反指

kdkboy

港股太猥琐了，收盘前猛跌，要是第二天在高开，哪阴谋论我也信了

买入NAQ 2468，试水，目前DAX在水下了