05/31 - 06/01 DT

greenback

What a day! Chinese PMI is also bad for May ... but Chinese markets are up, due to higher certainty of more stimulus?
Let's first look at GOLD and CRUDE ...
Both are very close to the yearly lows ... with GOLD being worse ... very likely it will make a lower low this round ... it's forming another descending triangle ...
I don't see any major support in CRUDE either between the current level and the yearly low either ...
So too early to jump in GOLD or any energy related assesses ...

greenback

EURO and JPY are heading to the yearly low/high as well ...
I think it's finally safe to long JPY giving 79.5 has been decisively broken. I will wait for JPY to consolidate a bit before going in.

greenback

No question that bonds are making history, but I dare not to chase it with futures ... I already have tons of bond funds in 401K accounts ...

胡同儿串子

with the steep drop in crude, it's very hard to catch falling knife and guess the bottom, very hard to believe crude goes to 70's as well

greenback

If the bear flags on ES/NQ get broken ... that would be really ugly ...
I don't want to think about it ...

greenback

胡同儿串子 发表于 2012-6-1 00:37
with the steep drop in crude, it's very hard to catch falling knife and guess the bottom, very hard  ...

That's why trade 6E/6J/DX instead ...

silicon_beaver

greenback 发表于 2012-5-31 20:42
If the bear flags on ES/NQ get broken ... that would be really ugly ...
I don't want to think about ...

Then, another 100 pts drop?   

silicon_beaver

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-5-31 20:54
Then, another 100 pts drop?

At least, bear flag tells that points.

胡同儿串子

greenback 发表于 2012-5-31 20:44
That's why trade 6E/6J/DX instead ...

for 6E, do you have a target if you stay on shorting it?

greenback

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-6-1 00:54
At least, bear flag tells that points.

That's scary ... but it may not reach 100% target.

greenback

胡同儿串子 发表于 2012-6-1 00:55
for 6E, do you have a target if you stay on shorting it?

The target would be the yearly low ... but dare you hold it??? I dare not ...
It's always dangerous to place bearish trades ... because you never know when the central bankers would start to act, especially when it's the correction has gone on for a while ...

greenback

Did you note that SPX has hit ma200 on the daily chart ...
I will buy a dip with 1/8 buying power in my 401K account IF and ONLY IF it closes at the low at EOD ... I will do so whenever it makes a milestone in building the bottom ...

greenback

So far it turns out to be very similar to Jun 2011 ...
Both JNK and SPY are hitting (almost) MA200 on the same day ...

greenback

I've seen three push downs already on the 5m chart ...

greenback

Annotated version ...

greenback

It's very unfortunate that yesterday EOD's call for a gap down and last night's call for a bear flag breakdown have both been realized ...

greenback

If you look at the futures charting at
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=h1
the only things going up is precious metals and foods ...
Traders are betting more money printing down the road ... but when???

greenback

Interesting ...
both USD and SPX are going down ...
Maybe we should wait for Mon to assess the condition further before loading the 401K account ...

silicon_beaver

greenback 发表于 2012-6-1 10:19
Interesting ...
both USD and SPX are going down ...
Maybe we should wait for Mon to assess the co ...

--- Maybe we should wait for Mon to assess the condition further before loading the 401K account ...
Find right answer. Xie-Xie
I was wondering if I should load 100% of my 401k. Per greenback  Laoda, I would see Monday to decide.

greenback

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-6-1 15:20
--- Maybe we should wait for Mon to assess the condition further before loading the 401K account . ...

Good for you!