Here Comes May

jamesmith

Here Comes May
MONDAY, APRIL 30, 2012 AT 02:52PM
With the S&P 500 on the verge of putting in its first negative month since November 2011 and the worst month since September 2011, traders will be eager to see the month end.  But what is in store for May?  In the chart below, we highlight the average trading pattern for the S&P 500 during the month of May since 1928 and over the last 50 and 20 years.  When we look at all years since 1928 (blue line), the S&P 500 has typically started off the month strong, averaging a gain of 0.8% in the first week of the month.  From there, though, it has been mostly downhill through Memorial Day as the S&P 500 has typically erased all its early month gains and more.  In the last few days of the month, however, the index has tried to rally back to positive levels but falls just short.

Looking at the month of May over the last fifty years shows a similar pattern, although the index has managed to eke out slightly positive returns.  While the pattern for the month of May from 1928 through 2011 (84 years) and the last fifty years is very similar, the pattern of the last twenty years is much different.  Unlike the other two periods, over the last twenty years, the month of May has typically been positive.  In fact, the only day of May where the S&P 500's average month to date change is down is May 7th (-0.01%).  For the month as a whole, the index has averaged a gain of 0.64% over the last twenty years.



The S&P 500's performance in May also looks very different based on market returns over the first four months of the year.  Below we highlight the S&P 500's average change in the month of May when the index has been up more than 10% from January through April.  As shown, there have been 19 years since 1928 in which the index has been up more than 10% through the first four months, and the index's change in May of these years has been...

niufen88

小牛

5月也没有那么可怕

Diffusion

Wall-E

using average data as guidance is misleading. one year you are up 50%, another year you are down 50%, on average you are even.