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发表于 2012-5-4 03:03 PM
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Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering why it isn’t giving us energy or making us feel better. Instead of a robust recovery, the economy continues to be sluggish. Last year, when asked why his measures weren’t working, he suggested it was “bad luck.”
I don’t think luck has anything to do with it. The blame lies in his misunderstanding of human nature. The textbooks presume that easier money will always result in a stronger economy, but that’s a bad assumption. …
If we didn’t have a Jelly Donut monetary policy, I would sell gold, sell bonds and buy stocks. But, the Fed is filled with academics who thoughtlessly rely on econometric models that reflexively indicate that repeated Jelly Donut orgies are the best way to get a sugar rush into the economy. And, the Fed Chairman seems to have no trouble rationalizing any policy failure on the basis that “monetary policy cannot be a panacea,” or “it’s bad luck,” or as proof that he just hasn’t force fed us enough Jelly Donuts, yet. As long as this is the case, it seems unlikely the Fed will change course.
As a result, I will keep a substantial long exposure to gold — which serves as a Jelly Donut antidote for my portfolio. While I’d love for our leaders to adopt sensible policies that would reduce the tail risks so that I could sell our gold, one nice thing about gold is that it doesn’t even have quarterly conference calls.
By David Einhorn
两个QE和一个OT之后，Fed印钱来拯救经济的方法已经开始受到投资人的质疑。如果Fed都没法救经济，大熊市就会来。
重复一下懒人策略：买黄金。懒熊策略，空大盘，买黄金。
Retailers came out with April same-store sales results on Thursday, with some major retailers missing analysts’ expectations.
In particular, Target (TGT) said same store sales grew 1.1%, below expectations for 2.8%.
Gap (GPS) saw sales fall 2%, worse than expectations for a 0.8% drop.
Target slid 2.5% and Gap was off 1.6%.
On the other hand, both TJX (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST) both raised their earnings guidance after posting better than expected sales.
In general, retail sales were subdued in April; of the 20 companies that reported, saw sales rise 0.8% below expectations for 1.5% growth, according to Thomson Reuters. But the shortfall can be explained by shifts in the timing of Easter and Mother’s day. A better ay to determine sales strength is to come up with an average based on Mach and April results, Thomson Reuters noted:
“On that basis, retailers posted a 2.5% gain in same-store sales for that two-month period, a sharp drop from the 5.4% growth seen in the same period for last year. Excluding the Drug Stores group from the mix, however, makes the picture somewhat brighter: the forecast growth in the index rises to 4.5%, a drop from the 6.4% growth recorded a year earlier.”
By Barron's
最近最猛的offensive sector是XLY。如果零售不好，那么XLY就快要到头了。牛牛没有了领袖，前景堪忧。
Facebook said in a filing that it will offer 180 million Class A common shares for $28-$35. Selling stockholders plan to sell another 157.4 million shares as part of the deal.
The IPO could raise as much as $11.8 billion for the company, and would value the company at roughly $85 billion to $95 billion, the Wall Street Journal is reporting. The reported price would make it the most valuable U.S. Web company at the time of an IPO, giving it a market capitalization just below giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).
However, that figure is below the $100-$110 billion some were originally expecting. Some “sympathy plays” that had been trading up in anticipation of the IPO were down in recent trading, including Firsthand Technology Value Fund (SVVC), GSV Capital (GSVC) and Zynga, Inc. (ZNGA), as StreetInsider.com noted. Jive (JIVE) was the subject of a recent article criticizing the bump in price it has seen largely due to Facebook, rather than fundamental.
By Barron's
Facebook IPO缩水，从侧面反映股市上能圈到钱少了。
Over the first ten days of earnings season, the percentage of companies beating earnings estimates remained above 70%, which would have been one of the highest readings seen over the last ten years. Over the past two weeks, however, the beat rate has been declining steadily, and it currently stands at just 64%, which is two percentage points above the historical quarterly average of 62%. There are still a couple weeks left to the first quarter reporting period, so it will be interesting to see if this decline continues.
By Bespoke Investment Group
这个ER season虎头蛇尾。前几天牛牛拿来说事的beat rate一天不如一天。
Source: Energy Information Administration.
This above graph tracks the four-week moving average of petroleum product supplies, a measure that includes heating oil, jet fuel, gasoline and diesel. U.S. oil consumption collapsed during the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2007-09, and has never fully recovered. But consumption has held relatively steady; the most recent data indicate that U.S. oil demand is down about 2% year over year.
However, the near-term trend is surprising. Despite elevated prices, U.S. oil demand appears to have picked up over the past two weeks -- a sign that consumers have grown accustomed to higher prices. These revised expectations are also reflected in March's stronger-than-expected retail sales data.
Meanwhile, rising oil consumption in China and other emerging markets continues to drive global demand for oil and refined products. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil demand will expand by 800,000 barrels day in 2012 -- and there could be more upside to this number when you consider that the International Monetary Fund recently raised its outlook for 2012 global economic growth to 3.5% from 3.3%.
...
I continue to expect Brent crude oil to fetch an average of roughly $110 per barrel in 2012, while a barrel of WTI should average more than $100 per barrel. These price ranges should ensure that oil-weighted producers reap sizable profits and encourage drilling activity.
By Elliott Gue @ Seeking Alpha
原油今天sell off很吓人。不过从长远来看，应该是买入的机会。 |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-4-27 04:18 PM
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变色卡
发表于 2012-4-27 04:25 PM
搬个椅子听军师讲课，，，