JANUARY – A LOOK AHEAD AT SEASONAL TRENDS

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With January right around the corner it’s time to take a look at some seasonal trends.  January tends to be a pretty good month as it’s the tail end of the best three month span of  the year.  The statistics come courtesy of The Stock Traders Almanac:

January Barometer predicts year’s course with .783 batting average.
14 of last 15 pre-presidential election years followed January’s direction.
Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction.
S&P gains January’s first five days preceded full-year gains 86.5% of the time, 12 of last 15 pre-presidential years followed first five day’s direction.
November, December, and January constitute the year’s best three-month span, a 4.2% S&P gain.
January NASDAQ powerful 2.8% since 1971.
“January Effect” now starts in mid-December and favors small-cap stocks.
2009 has the dubious honor of the worst S&P 500 January on record.