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看看al brooks怎么说的
1 Y = bull channel= bear flag with BO into C. could be f BO and bulls can get HSB bull flag, but AIS and odds favor bears. Mayb 20% chance of LOD. L1 but middle ofTR so wait
2 doji L1 but middle of TR so wait for more info
3 bull BO, erasing bear spike and 1 2 bear flag
4 FT Bg so AIL. Still has to get above HOY. T1B so Brs below
6 doji BP B but weak SB, PB likely, just below HOY, so prob Srs above
7 FF, test of HOY, but t1b bull so should be Brs below. After FF, might get 2 legs down
8 fell below 76 BO so now TR more likely than bull
10 4 down bars so bar H1. Srs above
11 LH but bull body. wait.
12 2BR but still AIL. Might ger H2.
13 fell below 2 bottom of gap so TR more likely. Bears need spike to erase 3
14 huge bear spike, new LOD, AIS, some news item must have come out
15 FT Sg but SX so should bounce. Bounce could be very big. Since bars = huge, if you trade, trade maybe ¼ size and use 6 pt stop. Might be just S vacuum to below Lof TR of past week
16 2BR so should bounce, but bear spike very strong so L should get tested. Maybe SC bear
18 L1 but doji, and after strong 2BR so BRs below
19 H1 but not bull so Srs above, but need 4-6pt stop so trade small
21 bear IB, lots of tails so TR likely. Not strong S. prob have seen both LOD and HOD, but HOD more certain. Still could get SC bear. SC bull less likely.
23 strong bull RB, H1 or H2, but bear channel from 17 H so better to wait to B BP
24 L2 S , bear body, but TR likely after several big reversals, so not strong S
25 big bear bar so SX. Might be DB. Brs on its C and maybe Srs also. Bears need FT
26 bull RB so bad FT and more up likely. Weak B after 25, but 25 might have been just S vacuum test of LOD
28 BP S but tail makes it less reliable. TR most likely
29 2BR but risky to B top of bear flag
30 another reversal. Odds favor big TR, then MM BO, down more likely at the moment, unless mkt can get above 20. BO might take day or two
31 bear IB so BP B but close to 20 H so not great B. might be forming TR or tri
33 BP B but doji. Not good B
34 another doji. F, DT, but no PB since 26 so bad S. odds favor sideways
36 doji BP B but betting on DT BO, so L P
38 strong BO but bulls need FT since all BOs Fd today. Might be Srs on C and at 14 H
39 f DT BO, 1t F BO of 14 H, FF, large L2 from 16 L, so might PB into 17 – 24 TTR. A little risky to S since tight channel up
from 26. Should test 32 channel bottom
42 H1 but should be near top of TR so Srs above
44 doji H2 but should fall back into TTR
46 doji DB with 32, test into 30 gap. Near bottom of 18-24 TTR so should start going sideways soon. Might fall below 29 bottom of gap, but should bounce first sinceTTR so should be two sided for at least a few bars
47 1t F BO below 32, so might bounce, since in TTR. Steep bear channel from 39 so better to wait
48 L1 S but bottom of channel on TR day so risky. TL below and mkt close enough to test
52 missed TL by a fraction of a tick. Too steep down to B. still channeling down from 39 and 46 so better to wait for BO and then B PB. Risky to sell bottom of channel near bottom of TR. Wait
53 Brs below but since BW, might be Srs above. Wait
55 L2 at bottom of BW. Wait
58 DB but BW. Ok to B above for test of OOD but might get downside BO first and FF reversal up
60 bear BO of BW so should reverse back into BW. Since TR day and OOD is in middle, it is magnet
61 weak bull IB, f BO, FF. not strong setup but TR day and most setups look bad. Maybe 50% chance of success, but risk is 6t and reward it 3-4 pts = test of OOD so ok B
63 strong bull TB so stop below its L
64 bear IB so tough for scalpers after 5t f. many will exit BE below its L. swing traders will hold long with stop below 63 for test of TL and OOD. Many will take some off at 2 pts, just in case mkt does not reach tgts
65 another strong bull bar so stop now below its L
66 doji f BO above BW but odds favor test of TL and OOD so Brs below. Stop below 65 = strong bull TB
68 risky to B here since small BW just below tgts. Also TR day and mkt up for about 10 bars so bears will start coming in
70 take at least half off at 2 pts, since resistance = 60 min ma, TL. Also, ?FF. should hit IID but don’t want to give back any profit
71 bear IB, W bear flag, L2 at TL and 60 min MA, RHST (20 L shoulder), but tight bull channel from 60 and OOD is strong magnet, so risky S. swing longs have only a small piece left and should exit below this bar
72 big bear bar but big tail and still HL above 60 so good chance mkt will still try to get to OOD. BT of 61 H and just hit BE stops. If trader is fast and alert, he could B1-3t above 61 for test of OOD, risking maybe 4t.
73 doji IB, but still BP from 70 BO of 60 bull flag (channel from 39). Should go above OOD by at least one tick, but not reliable setup
76 hit tgt of 1t above OOD. ET 66 70 but bull SB and 4 up bars so bad S
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