DTB, 11.12 ES

开小差

LLN

So second entry is always safer.

MM_Wu

毫无章法

开小差

回复 3# MM_Wu


    请指教。

flash

看看PPT吧，PPT今天可是笑翻了。

ppteam

回复 1# 开小差


1. bar 2, limit buy at 1204.75, intened for 4 points; but it hit 1 tick away. 2 points out. Missed the ema short.
2. I was away for some time, came back at bar 12
3. Short close of bar 14 for scalp
4. limit buy and out in bar 16 and 17, lost 2-3 ticks.
5. should have shorted close of bar 17. didn't.
6. limit buy at bar 21 at 1198.5 for 2 points.
7. limit short at ema at high of bar 24 for scalp, didn't expect the break down.
8. I was away again, and market broke down.
9. at either bar 46 or bar 47, limit buy at 1193.5, for scalp.
10. stop short at bar 52, ema gap, for 2 points.
11. buy close of bar 58, reversal to short at bar 60. This is bear's chance to drive market down big, right here. They failed.
    stop out shorts and went long at 1 tick above of high of bar 63, for 2 points.
12. bears failed, so WSLZ. limit buy the low of bar 65 at bar 66, for 2 points.
13. limit buy at 1198 at bar 70 for scalp
14. limit short at 1199 for scalp. Bulls reached the minimum target to the tick.

overall bears didn't show much strength today, the whole afternoon is range day.

ppteam

回复 1# 开小差

1192-1193 is daily ema. I think even limit buying there is ok, but you need wilder stop. This should be swing trade, not scalp, if you believe ema buyers will step in. Target should be at least 2 points, in my mind. I should have bought calls down there. But bulls are not strong also.
Actually bears got chance to do some serious damage today, they failed.

ppteam

回复 1# 开小差

I think if a person is good at some high probability setup, he/she would be just fine today. There are quiet few today

1. limit short ema at bar 5
2. short close bar 14
3. short close bar 17 ( a little low probability)
4. short close bar 34
5. short close bar 35
6. ema gap, or short below bar 52

that's 5-6 points. Only trade high probability setup! don't give up, my friend.
In this business, only 1 out of 10 people can make a living.

Diffusion

回复  开小差

I think if a person is good at some high probability setup, he/she would be just fi ...
ppteam 发表于 2010-11-12 20:23

   

LLN

回复 7# ppteam


  "short close bar 14"
Were you not afraid of the long shadow down there?

ppteam

回复 10# LLN

first bar close below the double bottom, no problem for scalp.

LLN

回复  LLN

first bar close below the double bottom, no problem for scalp.
ppteam 发表于 2010-11-12 20:39

    Thanks.

yaobooyao

回复  开小差

I think if a person is good at some high probability setup, he/she would be just fi ...
ppteam 发表于 2010-11-12 20:23

I was keeping on the short side today,  as all bars were below 100EMA on my 1min chart for most of the time in the morning.  Skip all this afternoon and busy asking question about 'bear flag vs. bounce' in 'GUAN SHUI',  try to get some answer exactly about the afternoon pattern on ES, but no clue at all.  I still believe this could unfold as a bear flag and market drifting lower next Week.

flash

我今天真是很糟糕的一天，这段时间我一直看熊，不过听到大老说可能新高，做多，结果损失巨大。这是个教训。

开小差

回复 8# ppteam


    thx, but for bar 52, is this bar called ema gap? why u r so sure that short below bar 52 will be a winning bid. what i meant is that bar 52 is sitting around ema, how do u know it will go down instead of going up?

西安

回复  ppteam


    thx, but for bar 52, is this bar called ema gap? why u r so sure that short b ...
开小差 发表于 2010-11-13 13:19

Looks like PPT is not available now. I try to answer your question.

Three reasons to take this trade:
1. In a strong trending day, the first EMA gap always fail(higher probability),
2. This is the first time  market broke bear trend line, it will test the extream(  the previous low) , (this is the real reason why your first trade lose money, if you took bar 10 as signal bar, you will win)
3. Good risk reward ratio: 6 ticks stop: 8 ticks profit target

Let us learn from each other, thanks for your post and

开小差

回复 16# 西安


    Big Thx.

ppteam

回复  ppteam


    thx, but for bar 52, is this bar called ema gap? why u r so sure that short b ...
开小差 发表于 2010-11-13 01:19 PM

yes, that's ema gap. It's all about odds.

Just like limit buy at ema in strong up trend, the winning odds is high, it's hard to explain.
I am not really a big fan of ema gap bar, I took it this time, but I think I didn't take it in last few times in uptrend.

ppteam

回复 16# 西安

thanks!

开小差

回复 19# ppteam


    Thx