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Friday, Sept. 30th --季末, 月末, 周末...

热度 4已有 971 次阅读2016-9-30 08:22 AM


......

Friday, Sept. 30th. - Charts & Analysis are below the Quick Summary

Institutional Investor Buying and Selling were BOTH in a up trend.  Today, the stress levels are extremely high.

Noteworthy Headlines last night: Asian stocks lower on renewed worries about banking sector ... and ... Fearful clients pull billions of dollars out of Deutsche Bank.  (Deutsche Bank was a panic reaction and the mission for the Fed today is to stop any panic from reaching our shores. ... The  downside pressure is high for the market today, but the Fed will come in with gobs of money to keep the market from falling.)

Shorting opportunities are typically poor if the Super Accelerators are in Quadrant 1, but there is a lingering question about the possibility of pent-up demand and the Fed's actions.  I don't have an easy answer because this is new territory. 

FYI ..Institutional Investors were back to low Distribution with Buying showing a down tick and Selling showing an up tick. [Both were still technically still up trending up.) The Aggressives were showing a decline in their low Accumulation. - - - Institutional Selling trend lines had an up tick with trend lines merged so that means a test day.  (Note that less selling is a positive and more selling is a negative.)  - - - Also look at the back and forth buying and selling shifts going on because Institutional Investors have been undecided. - - - Past comments: "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."

Older comments:  "A crash is not out of the question, and if you have any long positions, they must be hedged as the downside risks are just too great now."   >  > > (As before, our other older comments have not changed:  "Don't think of being long in the market without properly hedging a position.   Nobody knows when, but when this does finally end ... it will end very badly.
                               ____________________________________________

Special Chart 1:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory that was above the current fan line and inside a triangular pattern. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

Special Chart 2: The VIX* closed at 14.02. . This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 
                              ____________________________________________

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines with a bit of a slow down on upside trending.  The fast thick red line showed a down tick in lesser negative territory that was below the red trend line.  (The thick red line above the red and blue trend  lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start, and below it could be trouble.) > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's showed trend lines in positive territory with trend lines that moved to short term down trending.  The daily red bar was positive.  The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a down tick in positive territory. This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a Very high Danger area and experiencing a pull back that could move to a correction status.)

Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory that was above the current fan line and inside a triangular pattern. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were showing a positive and mixed condition.

Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were back to low Distribution with Buying showing a down tick and Selling showing an up tick. [Both were still technically still up trending up.) The Aggressives were showing a decline in their low Accumulation.

Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling trend lines had an up tick with trend lines merged so that means a test day.  (Note that less selling is a positive and more selling is a negative.)  - - - Also look at the back and forth buying and selling shifts going on because Institutional Investors have been undecided. - - - Past comments: "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."  - - - The top part of the chart showed an up tick to Mid-Q3 negative territory.

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** All together the SPY's indicators was in a Danger-up condition while the NDX and the IWM were mixed with the NDX in an up condition but the IWM was in a Caution-up condition.  This is a high risk up condition.   (Hedge any and all long positions if you are long.)   Older comments: "Risk levels are high and investors should be hedged or move to cash."   and ... "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   
                                ____________________________________________

This is a quick overview of underlying conditions over the past 3 days (see the matrix below): 
0 Negative readings, 4 Lesser Negative readings1 Neutral Reading, 1 Positive reading, and 2 Lesser Positive readings.

Indicator

Condition and color wanted for an up condition.

Tuesday's Close 
Sept. 27th.

Condition:
Wednesday'sClose 
Sept. 28th.

Condition:
Thursday's Close 
Sept. 29th.

Condition:
1. Unweighted, Positive Sector Stocks above Equilibrium.

A majority of Unweighted Positive Strength stocks above the Equilibrium line. 

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that50.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that58.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that44.00% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

2. A comparison of the number of Very Strong and Very Weak Feeder stocks.

 

The # of Very Strong Feeder stocks higher than the the # of Very Weak Feeder stocks.

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
20 vs 17

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
24 vs 13 (Improved.)

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
20 vs 30 (Improved.)

3. New Highs Trender

Above 180 wanted.

90 (Above 180 wanted)

103 (Above 180 wanted)

101 (Above 180 wanted)

4. New Highs Raw Data

46 to 86 =s neutral.
100+ is a lesser positive;
150+ is the target.

94 reading

116 reading

99 reading

5. New Lows

At or Below 28 Wanted.

20  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) 

18  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) 

28  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) [Borderline.]

6. Institutional Buying & Selling Action

Accumulation

Institutional Investors were in low Distribution with  Buying showing a small up tick and Selling showing a small down tick.   [Both were still technically trending up.) The Aggressives were in low Accumulation after a buying slow down.

Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation with  Buying showing an up tick and Selling showing a down tick.   [Both were still technically trending up.) The Aggressives were in low Accumulation with less selling.

Institutional Investors were back to low Distribution with  Buying showing a down tick and Selling showing an up tick.   [Both were still technically still up trending up.) The Aggressives were showing a decline in low Accumulation.

7. Long Term Liquidity Inflows

Expansion Territory

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick to Lower-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and in a test mode for Tuesday and Wednesday.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick to Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and in a test mode for a resistance from a triangle.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory that was above the current fan line and inside a triangular pattern.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects what Quadrant the Liquidity levels are in and not what their trending is doing.)

8. Daily VIX Reading

The VIX is subject to its behavior analysis

The VIX* closed at 13.10 on an outside indecision tick. This remains aDANGER possibility for the mediumterm.  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line and this is a TEST day for upside movement.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.

The VIX* closed at 12.39. . This remains aDANGERpossibility for themedium term.  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line and this is a TEST day for upside movement.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.

The VIX* closed at 14.02. This remains aDANGER possibility for the medium term.  (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line..

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.

Color Codes:
positiveA lesser positive
neutral 
negativeA lesser negative

 

 

 

>  The Institutional Index, the SPY, the NDX./QQQ, and the IWM were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA was below its thick black horizontal resistance line.

> The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 69.71 with the 30 day C-RSI at a Danger-negative level of -0.26.   The Accelerator was in positive territory while technically down trending and showing a down tick.    The Timing Indicator was in low negative territory with a lower tick and showing down trending.    The Banking Index was in a Very High Risk up condition that started March 1st.    Please note that risk levels are high and at a place where Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions or go to cash.

> The Dollar closed at 95.535.   The RSI was at a danger-negative level of 50.12   We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line which is not an impossibility.  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.  NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending in a large sideways range since early last year.

10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 15.57.   No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields but there has been a downside interference appearing.   DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with.   Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 

30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.75.    No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to buildon the 10 and 30 year bond yields. but there has been a downside interference appearing.    Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Special Charts Section ...

A Note About the Special Section:  This Special Section is normally empty.   However, when there are charts in this section, it is because I add additional charts that I think it will help to add clarity to the market.

Special Charts and Comments:

Special Chart 1:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory that was above the current fan line and inside a triangular pattern. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 


Special Chart 2:   The VIX* closed at 14.02. . This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 


Section 1. - "Money makes the World Go Round" ...
and it also makes the Stock Market Go Round. ...

    This is Section 1 ... This information is critically important because the stock market follows the direction of money flows.  In and out money is the root cause of the market's reaction and trends.   The charts in this Section 1 show the daily Net Condition of various Inflowing Liquidity sources and Institutional Investor Accumulation/Distribution actions.

    Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines with a bit of a slow down on upside trending.  The fast thick red line showed a down tick in lesser negative territory that was below the red trend line.  (The thick red line above the red and blue trend  lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start, and below it could be trouble.) > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow'sshowed trend lines in positive territory with trend lines that moved to short term down trending.  The daily red bar was positive.  The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a down tick in positive territory.This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.  (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in aVery high Danger area and experiencing a pull back that could move to a correction status.)

    Section 1, Chart 2:  Chart of Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...

    Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory that was above the current fan line and inside a triangular pattern. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were showing a positive and mixed condition.


    Section 1, Chart 3: Institutional Buying and Selling Activity ...

    Institutional Buying & Selling

    Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were back to low Distribution with Buying showing a down tick and Selling showing an up tick. [Both were still technically still up trending up.) The Aggressives were showing a decline in their low Accumulation.


    Section 1, Chart 4: 
    The Market Direction is Affected by the amount & trending of Institutional Selling
     ...

    Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling trend lines had an up tick with trend lines merged so that means a test day.  (Note that less selling is a positive and more selling is a negative.)  - - - Also look at the back and forth buying and selling shifts going on because Institutional Investors have been undecided. - - - Past comments: "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."  - - - The top part of the chart showed an up tick to Mid-Q3 negative territory.


    Section 2, Chart 1:  Our Multi-Indicator Model is below.  It is comprised of our Accelerator, a MACD-C, a 4/9/30 C-RSI (Zero-based Relative Strength), and a Options Timing Indicator.

    The chart and readings are below: 
    a.)  The Accelerator's trend lines were in shallow negative territory, while technically moving up with struggling action.  The daily green bar had a negative tick.   
    b.)  The MACD trend lines were negative and moving up while in negative territory. The fast red bar had a tick in negative territory that was a higher ... remain cautious.
    c.)    The NYA's 9 CRSI closed at -3.34 the 30 CRSI came in at a level of -0.81.   The 4 CRSI closed at -6.47.
    d.)  The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines with a bit of a slow down on upside trending.  The fast thick red line showed a down tick in lesser negative territory that was below the red trend line.  (The thick red line above the red and blue trend  lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start, and below it could be trouble.)

    Conclusion:  The NYA Index showed a Sell signal on August 20, and it is showing a Dangerous level with a basing condition that has been trying to start up trending while it is also weak and facing opposition. (Softness was starting to appear.)   The NYA is under very high stress and in a "Very High Danger Area" so remain with hedges or be in cash.  


    _________________________________________

    Before we go to the Super Accelerator charts, here is the legend for the C-RSI levels and below that are the C-RSI level readings for the past 5 days.  
    (Note: If there are any Black cells, they indicate that an ETF is in a Super Accelerator Sell condition.) 


    ___________________________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 2:  ** The S&P (SPY) Super Accelerator ... 
    The SPY's Super Accelerator showed trend lines were in Mid-Q1 territory with up trending lines under stress. The SPY's S.T. Accelerator had a down tick to Mid-Q3 negative territory.   The CRSI was at a Danger-negative level of -0.64   All together the SPY's indicators were in a Danger-up condition while the NDX and the IWM were mixed with the NDX in an up condition but the IWM was in a Caution-up condition.


      _________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 3:  The NASDAQ 100 Super Accelerator ... 

    The NDX's Super Accelerator trend lines were in Mid-Q1 positive territory with the trend lines merged.  The S.T. Accelerator had a down tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory.  The C-RSI showed a Positive level of +6.18.   This is a short term up condition that was showing signs of struggling.


    ______________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 4:  *** The Russell 2000 Super Accelerator ... 

    The IWM's Super Accelerator's trend lines showed that they were in Mid-Q1 positive territory with the trend lines technically trending up while showing struggling action.  The S.T. Accelerator had a down tick to the Neutral line.  The CRSI tick was at a Caution -Positive level of +2.69.   Overall, the IWM was in an up condition while under increased stress.  > Older comments: "The IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on it."   The IWM was in an up condition with high risk levels, so hedge any long positions.


    Super Accelerator Model Synopsis for the above charts:   

    Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** All together the SPY's indicators was in a Danger-up condition while the NDX and the IWM were mixed with the NDX in an up condition but the IWM was in a Caution-up condition.  This is a high risk up condition.   (Hedge any and all long positions if you are long.)   Older comments: "Risk levels are high and investors should be hedged or move to cash."   and ... "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   

    Section 3. - Comparative Index Readings 
    for the Institutional Index, the NYA, SPY, NDX, IWM, and the VIX Index.
      
     

    [Chart Background:  Institutional Investor holdings represent over 50% of the market's investment in equities.   As an index, Institutional Index movements track better than any other indicator as the market's movement and direction.

    Section 3, Chart 1: The Institutional Index, the SPY, the NDX./QQQ, and the IWM were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA was below its thick black horizontal resistance line.

    Section 3, Chart 2: The VIX* closed at 14.02. . This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 


    A close up of the VIX's action ...


    Section 4. - Longer Term Bull/Bear Market Chart ...

    *** Longer term charts in this section are updated only once per week on MONDAY morning

    Section 4, Chart 1:  The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

    Monday, September 26.  ALERT ... DANGER WARNING ... Risk Levels are dangerously high with this long term model saying that we at an early stage of entering a Bear market with MIXED conditions  As with all Bear Markets, there will be short term up moves while trending downward on the longer term.   This Bear market is a bit different than the past ones in that the Fed will do all it can to keep the market from crashing (and maintaining its upward movement toward November) while hoping that the economy will turn around before a bad down move.   If you are a long term player, you should not be in any long positions unless you are playing the shorter term, know how to hedge, and/or play intra-day conditions.   The Bull is terminally ill and only the nursing Fed is keeping it in a life sustaining condition.  - -  The MACD Histogram was at a low positive level of +0.2798.   The C-RSI came in at apositive +8.08.  (Old comments: FYI ... don't forget that this is a "monthly" chart and that this is only a "weekly look" at the progress or changes in a "monthly" chart which will next technically end on September 30th. (the last trading day of this month).


    Section 5. The Banking Index ...

    Section 5, Chart 1:  ...  The Banking Index (Symbol: $BKX)

    Section 5, Chart 1:   The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 69.71 with the 30 day C-RSI at a Danger-negative level of -0.26.   The Accelerator was in positive territory while technically down trending and showing a down tick.    The Timing Indicator was in low negative territory with a lower tick and showing down trending.    The Banking Index was in a Very High Risk up condition that started March 1st.    Please note that risk levels are high and at a place where Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions or go to cash.


    Section 5, Chart 2:   Below is the Banking Index's Point & Figure chart.   This long term chart has been pointing out the potentially dangerous condition that the banking system is in.   Older Comments: ...there could be a Head & Shoulder pattern here with downside future implications.   NOTE the large triangle on this chart (from the latter part of 2007 to now)... we will either break to the upside of the resistance line and see a new upside, or we will break to the downside of the support line and see a big problem.


    Section 6. - The U.S. Dollar, 10 and 30 Year Bond Yields.

    Section 6, Chart 1:  The U.S. Dollar ... Daily Chart 

    The Dollar closed at 95.535.   The RSI was at a danger-negative level of 50.12   We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line which is not an impossibility.  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending in a large sideways range since early last year.


    Section 6, Chart 2:  The U.S. Dollar ... Longer Term ... 

    For perspective, this is the (Weekly) Longer Term chart of the Dollar.  Notice the "consolidation" that has been going on.   Do note the Fan Line I drew on this chart and the "double top" test that is going on.   It is a very important level for the Dollar to move above the "double top", so keep an eye on it ... it is also important for the Dollar to not close below the 92.63 level.  (If the Dollar rises above its red upper resistance line, it could move up to test a double top.)

    _______________________________________

    Section 6, Chart 3:  10 Year Bond Yields.

    10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 15.57.   No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields but there has been a downside interference appearing.   DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with.   Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 


    Section 6, Chart 4:  10 Year, Weekly Bond Yields. 

    This is a weekly chart of the 10 Year bond yields.  The yield bulls have been showing strength and trying to build a base for the longer term.  *** We are now in an area where the TNX is at an important decision point ... there is a resistance at 24.07 that is still technically in play


    Section 6, Chart 5:  30 Year Bond Yields.

    30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.75.    No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields. but there has been a downside interference appearing.    Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Section 6, Chart 6:   30 Year, Weekly Bond Yields.
    This is the TYX's weekly chart.  


    Section 6, Chart 7:  30 Year Yields, Point & Figure Chart.

    Below, is the 22 year Point & Figure chart showing the 20 year down sloping resistance line for 30 year bonds yields (TYX).    Note the TYX now has a Point & Figure resistance at 34.5 and a support at 25.02.   There is still a lot of work to do in order to start a new long term up trend on 30 year interest rates. 

    Time to start paying attention to this long term chart, as things are starting to heat up.

    Historical comments:  ... Something is slowly going on here.   **Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event.  It will be a "game changer" that causes market pressure on the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. 

    # # #


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