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要加速了。。。

热度 6已有 920 次阅读2016-8-29 08:15 AM | levels, higher




Monday, Aug. 29th

Please hedge any long positions or go to cash until the higher risk levels are worked out.  We are in a Danger zone.    It doesn't mean that the market loses, but it does mean that the risk levels are very high for the possibility of an unpleasant outcome.

While the danger levels are very high, the Fed is counting on their high levels of Inflowing Liquidity to sufficiently mitigate an unpleasant down side.  The Accelerator on the Banking Index says that the Fed has a short term advantage.

This is going to be volatility week with nerve testing as the Bulls and Bears fight it out. Since you can't guarantee who will win, it is best not to get in the middle of a dog fight.

From a historical basis, you do not want to see both Friday and Monday close down because that normally brings on more down side, so we want to see today with a higher close.

FYI ...  Institutional Investors were showing very low Accumulation levels. Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick. (The Aggressives were in Distribution again.) - - - Institutional Selling trend lines that went from merged to day 1 of a selling trend that needs to be tested, so this is a "decision day" for Institutional Selling.

Older comments:  "A crash is not out of the question, and if you have any long positions, they must be hedged as the downside risks are just too great now."   >  > > (As before, our other older comments have not changed:  "Don't think of being long in the market without properly hedging a position.   Nobody knows when, but when this does finally end ... it will end very badly.
                               ____________________________________________

Special Chart 1:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was close to testing an important support line and it below a trading range, while technically in a short term down trend). - - -As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."

Special Chart 2: The VIX closed at 13.65. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.
                              ____________________________________________

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines that they were moving lower while in negative territory ... weakness has been growing.   The fast thick red line showed an down tick in negative territory.  (higher risks levels.)  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's showed trend lines moving lower while in lower negative territory.  The fast red bar showed a negative tick again.   The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicatorshowed a positive daily tick.   This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very high Danger area.)

Section 1, Chart 2:   The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was close to testing an important support line and it below a trading range, while technically in a short term down trend). - - -As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were showing increased weakness with the indicators negative again.

Section 1, Chart 3:  Institutional Investors were showing very low Accumulation levels. Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick. (The Aggressives were in Distribution again.)

Section 1, Chart 4: Institutional Selling trend lines that went from merged to day 1 of a selling trend that needs to be tested, so this is a "decision day" for Institutional Selling. - - - The top part of the chart showed a sideways tick in Lower-Q3 negative territory.

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** No change:  Note that all 3 Super Accelerator conditions remain in an up condition, but this is a VERY high risk condition.   (Hedge any and all long positions or move to cash.)   Older comments: "Risk levels are high and investors should be hedged or move to cash."   and ... "The NDX orthe IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."
                           
   ____________________________________________

This is a quick overview of underlying conditions over the past 3 days (see the matrix below) : 0 Negative readings, 2 Lesser Negative readings, 1 Neutral Reading, 2 Positive readings, and 4 Lesser Positive readings.

Indicator

Condition and color wanted for an up condition.

Wednesday'sClose 
Aug. 24th.

Condition:
Thursday's Close 
Aug. 25th.

Condition:
Friday's Close 
Aug. 26th.

Condition:
1. Unweighted, Positive Sector Stocks above Equilibrium.

A majority of Unweighted Positive Strength stocks above the Equilibrium line. 

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that61.80% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that60.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that56.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

2. A comparison of the number of Very Strong and Very Weak Feeder stocks.

 

The # of Very Strong Feeder stocks higher than the the # of Very Weak Feeder stocks.

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
36 vs 41

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
44 vs 43

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
44 vs 69

3. New Highs Trender

Above 180 wanted.

147 (Above 180 wanted)

136 (Above 180 wanted)

173 (Above 180 wanted)

4. New Highs Raw Data

46 to 86 =s neutral.
100+ is a lesser positive;
150+ is the target.

113 reading

126 reading

209 reading

5. New Lows

At or Below 28 Wanted.

11  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) 

17  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) 

15  (At or Below 28 Wanted.) 

6. Institutional Buying & Selling Action

Accumulation

Institutional Investors were showing lower Accumulation. Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick.  (The Aggressives showed Distribution with less acceleration on selling.)Institutional Investors were showing low Accumulation levels. Buying had a small down tick and Selling had a down tick.  (The Aggressives were in Distribution.)Institutional Investors were showing very low Accumulation levels. Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick.  (The Aggressives were in Distribution again.)
7. Long Term Liquidity Inflows

Expansion Territory

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory. (It was below a support line and below a trading range, while technically in a down trend).

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was below a support line and below a trading range, while technically in a down trend).

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was close to testing an important support line and it below a trading range, while technically in a short term down trend).

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

8. Daily VIX Reading

The VIX is subject to its behavior analysis

The VIX closed at 13.45. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 13.63. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 13.65. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

Color Codes:
positiveA lesser positive
neutral 
negativeA lesser negative

 

 

 

> The Institutional Index, the SPY, the IWM and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA was below its thick black horizontal resistance line.

> The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 71.000 with the C-RSI at a positive  level of +8.9.   The Banking Index was above its support line.   The Accelerator was positive with an up tick.   The Timing Indicator was in positive territory and merged. The Banking Index was in a high risk up condition that started March 1st.    Please note that risk levels are high and at a place where Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions or go to cash.  We are at an important test level on the Banking Index.

> The Dollar closed at 95.566  The RSI was at a Danger-Positive level of 50.31.  We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line which is not an impossibility..  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.  NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending in a large sideways range since early last year.

10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 16.35.   No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below all three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 

30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.96.    No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to buildon the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.   Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Special Charts Section ...

A Note About the Special Section:  This Special Section is normally empty.   However, when there are charts in this section, it is because I add additional charts that I think it will help to add clarity to the market.

Special Charts and Comments:

Special Chart 1: The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was close to testing an important support line and it below a trading range, while technically in a short term down trend). - - -As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."


Special Chart 2:  The VIX closed at 13.65. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 



Section 1. - "Money makes the World Go Round" ...
and it also makes the Stock Market Go Round. ...

    This is Section 1 ... This information is critically important because the stock market follows the direction of money flows.  In and out money is the root cause of the market's reaction and trends.   The charts in this Section 1 show the daily Net Condition of various Inflowing Liquidity sources and Institutional Investor Accumulation/Distribution actions.

    Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines that they were moving lower while in negative territory ... weakness has been growing.   The fast thick red line showed an down tick in negative territory.  (higher risks levels.)  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's showed trend lines moving lower while in lower negative territory.  The fast red bar showed a negative tick again.   The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a positive daily tick.   This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very high Danger area.

    Section 1, Chart 2:  Chart of Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...

    Section 1, Chart 2:   The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory. (It was close to testing an important support line and it below a trading range, while technically in a short term down trend). - - -As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but still of concern."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were showing increased weakness with the indicators negative again.


    Section 1, Chart 3: Institutional Buying and Selling Activity ...

    Institutional Buying & Selling

    Section 1, Chart 3:  Institutional Investors were showing very low Accumulation levels. Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick. (The Aggressives were in Distribution again.)


    Section 1, Chart 4: 
    The Market Direction is Affected by the amount & trending of Institutional Selling
     ... 

    Section 1, Chart 4: Institutional Selling trend lines that went from merged to day 1 of a selling trend that needs to be tested, so this is a "decision day" for Institutional Selling. - - - The top part of the chart showed a sideways tick in Lower-Q3 negative territory.


    Section 2, Chart 1:  Our Multi-Indicator Model is below.  It is comprised of our Accelerator, a MACD-C, a 4/9/30 C-RSI (Zero-based Relative Strength), and a Options Timing Indicator.

    The chart and readings are below: 
    a.)  The Accelerator's trend lines were in positive territory, and technically moving down. The daily green bar had a lower daily tick that was just into negative territory.
    b.)  The MACD trend lines were in positive territory with the trend lines moving down and weaker.  The fast red bar had a lower positive tick again.
    c.)    The NYA's 9 CRSI closed at -8.01 the 30 CRSI came in at a level of +3.46.   The 4 CRSI closed at -25.57.
    d.)   The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines that they were moving lower while in negative territory ... weakness has been growing.   The fast thick red line showed an down tick in negative territory.  (higher risks levels.) 

    Conclusion The NYA Index showed a Sell signal on August 20, and it is showing a Dangerous level with a basing condition that has been trying to start up trending while it is also weak and facing opposition.  The NYA is under very high stress and in a "Very High Danger Area".


    _________________________________________

    Before we go to the Super Accelerator charts, here is the legend for the C-RSI levels and below that are the C-RSI level readings for the past 5 days.  
    (Note: If there are any Black cells, they indicate that an ETF is in a Super Accelerator Sell condition.) 

      Note that all 3 Super Accelerator conditions remain in an up condition, 
    but RISK levels will be very high..

    (Hedge any long positions or move to cash.)
     
    ___________________________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 2:  ** The S&P (SPY) Super Accelerator ... 
    The SPY's Super Accelerator showed trend lines that were moving down while under stress in high Quadrant 1 territory. The SPY's S.T. Accelerator had a down tick in Mid-Q2 positive territory with the trend lines moving lower.  The CRSI was at a Positive level of +6.06  The SPY was in an up condition with higher than normal risk so please hedge any long positions or go to cash until the higher risk levels are worked out.


      _________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 3:  The NASDAQ 100 Super Accelerator ... 

    The NDX's Super Accelerator trend lines were in Upper-Q1 positive territory, trending lower and under stress.   The S.T. Accelerator had a small up tick at the Q1/Q2 line with the trend lines technically down trending.  The C-RSI showed a Positive level of +10.50.  This remains an up condition where the stress levels are very high.  The risk levels were high, so please remain hedged or go to cash until the higher risk levels are worked out.


    ______________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 4:  *** The Russell 2000 Super Accelerator ... 

    The IWM's Super Accelerator's trend lines showed that they were in Upper-Q1 positive territory with stress coming in.   The S.T. Accelerator had a down tick in Lower-Q2 territory and still technically down trending.  The CRSI tick was at a Positive level of +8.99   > Older comments: "The IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on it."   The IWM was in an up condition with very high risk levels, so hedge any long positions or go to cash until the higher risk levels are worked out.


    Super Accelerator Model Synopsis for the above charts:   

    Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** No change:  Note that all 3 Super Accelerator conditions remain in an up condition, but this is a VERY high risk condition.   (Hedge any and all long positions or move to cash.)   Older comments: "Risk levels are high and investors should be hedged or move to cash."   and ... "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   

    Section 3. - Comparative Index Readings 
    for the Institutional Index, the NYA, SPY, NDX, IWM, and the VIX Index.
      
     

    [Chart Background:  Institutional Investor holdings represent over 50% of the market's investment in equities.   As an index, Institutional Index movements track better than any other indicator as the market's movement and direction.

    Section 3, Chart 1:  The Institutional Index, the SPY, the IWM and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA was below its thick black horizontal resistance line.

    Section 3, Chart 2:   The VIX closed at 13.65. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The VIX is still engaged in a downside test of a Major Support line. (Remember that the VIX moves opposite to the market.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 


    A close up of the VIX's action ...


    Section 4. - Longer Term Bull/Bear Market Chart ...

    *** Longer term charts in this section are updated only once per week on MONDAY morning

    Section 4, Chart 1:  The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

    Monday, August 22nd.  ALERT ... DANGER WARNING ... Risk Levels are dangerously high with this long term model saying that we at an early stage of entering a Bear market.   As with all Bear Markets, there will be short term up moves while trending downward on the longer term.   This Bear market is a bit different than the past ones in that the Fed will do all it can to keep the market from crashing (and maintaining its upward movement toward November) while hoping that the economy will turn aroundbefore a bad down move.   If you are a long term player, you should not be in any long positions unless you are playing the shorter term, know how to hedge, and/or play intra-day conditions.   The Bull is terminally ill and only the nursing Fed is keeping it in a life sustaining condition.  - -  The MACD Histogram was at a negative level of -0.0226.   The C-RSI came in at a positive +14.02.  (Old comments: FYI ... don't forget that this is a "monthly" chart and that this is only a "weekly look" at the progress or changes in a "monthly" chart which will next technically end on August 31st.. (the last trading day of this month).


    Section 5. The Banking Index ...

    Section 5, Chart 1:  ...  The Banking Index (Symbol: $BKX)

    Section 5, Chart 1:   The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 71.000 with the C-RSI at a positive  level of +8.9.   The Banking Index was above its support line.   The Accelerator was positive with an up tick.   The Timing Indicator was in positive territory and merged. The Banking Index was in ahigh risk up condition that started March 1st.    Please note that risk levels are high and at a place where Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions or go to cash.  We are at an important test level on the Banking Index


    Section 5, Chart 2:   Below is the Banking Index's Point & Figure chart.   This long term chart has been pointing out the dangerous condition that the banking system is in.   Older Comments: ... there could be a Head & Shoulder pattern here with downside future implications.   


    Section 6. - The U.S. Dollar, 10 and 30 Year Bond Yields.

    Section 6, Chart 1:  The U.S. Dollar ... Daily Chart 

    The Dollar closed at 95.566  The RSI was at a Danger-Positive level of 50.31.  We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line which is not an impossibility..  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending in a large sideways range since early last year.


    Section 6, Chart 2:  The U.S. Dollar ... Longer Term ... 

    For perspective, this is the (Weekly) Longer Term chart of the Dollar.  Notice the consolidation that has been going on.   Do note the Fan Line I drew on this chart and the "double top" test that is going on.   It is a very important level for the Dollar to move above the "double top", so keep an eye on it ... it is also important for the Dollar to not close below the 92.63 level.  (If the Dollar rises above its red upper resistance line, it could move up to test a double top.)

    _______________________________________

    Section 6, Chart 3:  10 Year Bond Yields.

    10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 16.35.   No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below all three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 


    Section 6, Chart 4:  10 Year, Weekly Bond Yields. 

    This is a weekly chart of the 10 Year bond yields.  The yield bulls have been showing strength and trying to build a base for the longer term.  *** We are now in an area where the TNX is at an important decision point ... there is a resistance at 24.07 that is still technically in play


    Section 6, Chart 5:  30 Year Bond Yields.

    30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.96.    No Change: There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.   Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Section 6, Chart 6:   30 Year, Weekly Bond Yields.
    This is the TYX's weekly chart.  


    Section 6, Chart 7:  30 Year Yields, Point & Figure Chart.

    Below, is the 22 year Point & Figure chart showing the 20 year down sloping resistance line for 30 year bonds yields (TYX).    Note the TYX now has a Point & Figure resistance at 34.5 and a support at 25.02.   There is still a lot of work to do in order to start a new long term up trend on 30 year interest rates. 

    Time to start paying attention to this chart, as things are starting to heat up.

    Historical comments:  ... Something is slowly going on here.   **Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event.  It will be a "game changer" that causes market pressure on the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. 



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