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Friday, July 15th, Marty Chenard's Advanced TA for stock investors

热度 3已有 1640 次阅读2016-7-17 08:21 PM

Friday, July 15th. - Charts & Analysis are below the Quick Summary

The short term bias is up, but risk levels are really out of line.  We are seeing overbought levels with high amounts of Inflowing Liquidity coming in.   Yesterday, 91.20% of all the Stocks in the S&P 500 reached a level that had a positive 30 day RSI.

A Dichotomy??   The Fed says that the labor market is improving.  Then why is a large international Freight company going to be laying off well over 3% of its employees very soon?  (They just notified employees of the coming layoff yesterday.)  Dow Theorist are getting concerned.

FYI ... Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick that is now testing a June 7th. low. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in slower Accumulation.) - - - Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending.  These are dangerous and mixed up conditions so be careful.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  

Older comments:  "A crash is not out of the question, and if you have any long positions, they must be hedged as the downside risks are just too great now."   >  > > (As before, our other older comments have not changed:  "Don't think of being long in the market without properly hedging a position.   Nobody knows when, but when this does finally end ... it will end very badly.
                               ____________________________________________

Special Chart 1: The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."  

Special Chart 2:   The VIX closed at 12.82. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The short term bias is down on the VIX.
- - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 
                              ____________________________________________

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in positive territory. Note that the fast thick red line showed a down tick in Positive territory while below the red line trend trend lines.  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's trend lines showed merged trend lines in positive territory with the fast red bar showing a strong positive tick that was lower than the previous day.  Thebias of the Options Liquidity  showed down trending with the fast blue bar showing a smaller strong positive tick again.    The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a higher positive daily tick.    This is a high Dangercondition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very high Danger area.)

Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were at a positive level, with the black trend line (on the very top of the chart) being positive while showing a slow down in its rate of acceleration.

Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick that is now testing a June 7th. low. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in slower Accumulation.)

Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending.  These are dangerous and mixed up conditions so be careful.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  - - -  The top part of the chart showed a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory on the Fast Acceleration Rate. 

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** The Super Accelerators showed up conditions with higher than normal risk levels ... so a high Caution position is advised (hedging on all long positions). Current and past comments: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be in cash or if in the market, they should be hedged."  >  Older comments: "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   
                           
   ____________________________________________

This is a quick overview of underlying conditions over the past 3 days (see the matrix below) : 0 Negative readings, 1 Lesser Negative reading0 Neutral Readings, 7 Positive readings, and 0 Lesser Positive readings.

Indicator

Condition and color wanted for an up condition.

Tuesday's Close 
July 12th.

Condition:
Wednesday'sClose 
July 13th.

Condition:
Thursday's Close 
July 14th.

Condition:
1. Unweighted, Positive Sector Stocks above Equilibrium.

A majority of Unweighted Positive Strength stocks above the Equilibrium line. 

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that88.80% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that88.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that91.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

2. A comparison of the number of Very Strong and Very Weak Feeder stocks.

 

The # of Very Strong Feeder stocks higher than the the # of Very Weak Feeder stocks.

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
113 vs 2

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 97 vs 1

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 106 vs 1

3. New Highs Trender

Above 180 wanted.

319 (Above 180 wanted)

272 (Above 180 wanted)

258 (Above 180 wanted)

4. New Highs Raw Data

46 to 86 =s neutral.
100+ is a lesser positive;
150+ is the target.

315 reading

225 reading

245 reading

5. New Lows

At or Below 28 Wanted.

3  (At or Below 28.) 

4  (At or Below 28.) 

2  (At or Below 28.) 

6. Institutional Buying & Selling Action

Accumulation

Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had an up tick and Selling had a down tick that made a lower low. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Accumulation.)

Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had an up tick and Selling had a down tick that made a lower low. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in slower Accumulation.)

Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick that is now testing a June 7th. low.  (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in slower Accumulation.)

7. Long Term Liquidity Inflows

Expansion Territory

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a smaller up tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small up tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line. It also was in a state of a lower/high so far.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

8. Daily VIX Reading

The VIX is subject to its behavior analysis

The VIX closed at 13.55. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The short term bias is down on the VIX.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 13.04. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The short term bias is down on the VIX.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 12.82. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The short term bias is down on the VIX.

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

Color Codes:
positiveA lesser positive
neutral 
negativeA lesser negative

 

 

 

>The Institutional Index, the SPY, and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA, and the IWM were below their thick black horizontal resistance lines. (The IWM was getting very close to its resistance line .)

> The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 67.26 with the C-RSI at a Danger level of +1.57.    The Accelerator had an up tick.    The Timing Indicator was in negative territory with an up tick that still showed technical upside trending.  The Banking Index was in a very high risk up condition that started March 1st.  Please note that risk levels are extremely high and a Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions.

> The Dollar closed at 96.077.   The RSI was at a Caution-positive level of 53.88.  We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line ... it has gained some ground  while it was still struggling.   50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending sideways (in a large trading range) since early last year.

10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 15.31.  No Change: There is a medium term upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below all three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 

30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.477.    No Change:  There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Special Charts Section ...

A Note About the Special Section:  This Special Section is normally empty.   However, when there are charts in this section, it is because I add additional charts that I think it will help to add clarity to the market.

Special Charts and Comments:

Special Chart 1: The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."  

Special Chart 2:   The VIX closed at 12.82. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The short term bias is down on the VIX.
- - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.



Section 1. - "Money makes the World Go Round" ...
and it also makes the Stock Market Go Round. ...

    This is Section 1 ... This information is critically important because the stock market follows the direction of money flows.  In and out money is the root cause of the market's reaction and trends.   The charts in this Section 1 show the daily Net Condition of various Inflowing Liquidity sources and Institutional Investor Accumulation/Distribution actions.

    Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in positive territory. Note that the fast thick red line showed a down tick in Positive territory while below the red line trend trend lines.  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's trend lines showed merged trend lines in positive territory with the fast red bar showing a strong positive tick that was lower than the previous day.  The bias of the Options Liquidity  showed down trending with the fastblue bar showing a smaller strong positive tick again.    The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a higher positive daily tick.    This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very high Danger area.)

    Section 1, Chart 2:  Chart of Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...

    Section 1, Chart 2:  The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line. - - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."   - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were at a positive level, with the black trend line (on the very top of the chart) being positive while showing a slow down in its rate of acceleration.


    Section 1, Chart 3: Institutional Buying and Selling Activity ...

    Institutional Buying & Selling

    Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were in Accumulation. Buying was in a technical up trend. Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick that is now testing a June 7th. low. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in slower Accumulation.) 


    Section 1, Chart 4: 
    The Market Direction is Affected by the amount & trending of Institutional Selling
     ... 

    Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending.  These are dangerous and mixed up conditions so be careful.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  - - -  The top part of the chart showed a small down tick in Upper-Q1 positive territory on the Fast Acceleration Rate. 


    Section 2, Chart 1:  Our Multi-Indicator Model is below.  It is comprised of our Accelerator, a MACD-C, a 4/9/30 C-RSI (Zero-based Relative Strength), and a Options Timing Indicator.

    The chart and readings are below:
    a.)  The Accelerator's trend lines were in positive territory, and technically up trending. The daily tick (green) bar showed a lower positive tick. 
    b.)  The MACD trend lines were in positive territory with the trend lines moving higher.   The fast red bar showed a much higher as a positive tick.  NOTE the TWO negatively divergent (price to MACD) trend lines which have been concerning. 
    c.)    The NYA's CRSI closed at +18.57 and the 30 CRSI that came in at a level of +8.41.   The 4 CRSI closed at +35.45 which was in overbought territory
    d.)   The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in positive territory. Note that the fast thick red line showed a down tick in Positive territory while below the red line trend trend lines. 

    Conclusion The NYA Index showed a Sell signal on August 20, and it is showing a Dangerous level with a basing condition that has been trying to start up trending while it is also weak and facing opposition.  The NYA is under very high stress and in a "Very High Danger Area" due to the large negative divergences and an overbought level.


    _________________________________________

    Before we go to the Super Accelerator charts, here is the legend for the C-RSI levels and below that are the C-RSI level readings for the past 5 days.  
    (Note: If there are any Black cells, they indicate that an ETF is in a Super Accelerator Sell condition.) 

    Note that all 3 Super Accelerator conditions are up, but we do have some significant negatives 
    which make this a very high risk condition.  (Hedge all long positions.)

    ___________________________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 2:  ** The S&P (SPY) Super Accelerator ... 
    The SPY's Super Accelerator showed trend lines that were moving higher while under increased stress.  The SPY's S.T. Accelerator had a small up tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory with the trend lines moving sideways.  The CRSI was at a Positive level of +8.43.  The SPY was in an up condition with higher than normal risk so please hedge any long positions.


      _________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 3:  The NASDAQ 100 Super Accelerator ... 

    The NDX's Super Accelerator trend lines were in Mid-Q2 positive territory and showing up trending with a little less acceleration.  The S.T. Accelerator had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory with the trend lines showing a small downside cross-over.  The C-RSI showed a Positive level of +6.58 which was in an up condition.  Overall , the risk levels were increasing so please remain hedged.


    ______________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 4:  *** The Russell 2000 Super Accelerator ... 

    The IWM's Super Accelerator's trend lines showed that they were merged and moving higher while close to Upper-Q1 territory.  The S.T. Accelerator had another down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory with trend lines showing a downside cross-over.  The CRSI tick was at a Positive level of +8.34.   > Older comments: "The IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on it."   The IWM was in an up condition with higher than normal risk.


    Super Accelerator Model Synopsis for the above charts:   

    Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** The Super Accelerators showed up conditions with higherthan normal risk levels ... so a high Caution position is advised (hedging on all long positions). Current and past comments: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be in cash or if in the market, they should be hedged."  >  Older comments: "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   

    Section 3. - Comparative Index Readings 
    for the Institutional Index, the NYA, SPY, NDX, IWM, and the VIX Index.
      
     

    [Chart Background:  Institutional Investor holdings represent over 50% of the market's investment in equities.   As an index, Institutional Index movements track better than any other indicator as the market's movement and direction.

    Section 3, Chart 1:  The Institutional Index, the SPY, and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA, and the IWM were below their thick black horizontal resistance lines. (The IWM was getting very close to its resistance line .)

    Section 3, Chart 2:  The VIX closed at 12.82. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) The short term bias is down on the VIX.
    - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.


    A close up of the VIX's action ...


    Section 4. - Longer Term Bull/Bear Market Chart ...

    *** Longer term charts in this section are updated only once per week on MONDAY morning

    Section 4, Chart 1:  The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

    Monday, July 11th.   ALERT ... DANGER WARNING ... Risk Levels are dangerously high with this long term model saying that we at an early stage of entering a Bear market.   As with all Bear Markets, there will be short term up moves while trending downward on the longer term.   This Bear market is a bit different than the past ones in that the Fed will do all it can to keep the market from crashing (and maintaining its upward movement toward this November) while hoping that the economy will turn around before a bad down move.   If you are a long term player, you should not be in any long positions unless you are playing the shorter term, know how to hedge, and/or play intra-day conditions.   The Bull is terminally ill and only the nursing Fed is keeping it in a life sustaining condition.  - -  The MACD was at a negative level of -0.454.   The C-RSI came in at a positive +9.91.  (Old comments: FYI ... don't forget that this is a "monthly" chart and that this is only a "weekly look" at the progress or changes in a "monthly" chart which will next technically end on July 29th. (the last trading day of this month).


    Section 5. The Banking Index ...

    Section 5, Chart 1:  ...  The Banking Index (Symbol: $KX)

    Section 5, Chart 1:  The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 67.26 with the C-RSI at aDanger level of +1.57.    The Accelerator had an up tick.    The Timing Indicator was in negative territory with an up tick that still showed technical upside trending.  The Banking Index was in a very high riskup condition that started March 1st.  Please note that risk levels are extremely high and a Danger lurks, so please hedge any positions.


    Section 5, Chart 2:   Below is the Banking Index's Point & Figure chart.   This long term chart has been pointing out the dangerous condition that the banking system is in.   Older Comments: ... there could be a Head & Shoulder pattern here with downside future implications.   


    Section 6. - The U.S. Dollar, 10 and 30 Year Bond Yields.

    Section 6, Chart 1:  The U.S. Dollar ... Daily Chart 

    The Dollar closed at 96.077.   The RSI was at a Caution-positive level of 53.88.  We still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line ... it has gained some ground  while it was still struggling.   50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occursafter the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentiallyDangerous condition that has been technically trending sideways (in a large trading range) since early last year.


    Section 6, Chart 2:  The U.S. Dollar ... Longer Term ... 

    For perspective, this is the (Weekly) Longer Term chart of the Dollar.  Notice the consolidation that has been going on.  Do note the Fan Line I drew on this chart and the "double top" test that is going on.   It is a very important level for the Dollar to move above the "double top", so keep an eye on it ... it is also important for the Dollar to not close below the 92.63 level.

    _______________________________________

    Section 6, Chart 3:  10 Year Bond Yields.

    10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 15.31.  No Change: There is a medium term upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below all three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 


    Section 6, Chart 4:  10 Year, Weekly Bond Yields. 

    This is a weekly chart of the 10 Year bond yields.  The yield bulls have been showing strength and trying to build a base for the longer term.  *** We are now in an area where the TNX is at an important decision point ... there is a resistance at 24.07 that is still technically in play


    Section 6, Chart 5:  30 Year Bond Yields.

    30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 22.477.    No Change:  There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields while the short term bias has been down.  Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Section 6, Chart 6:   30 Year, Weekly Bond Yields.

    This is the TYX's weekly chart.  


    Section 6, Chart 7:  30 Year Yields, Point & Figure Chart.

    Below, is the 22 year Point & Figure chart showing the 20 year down sloping resistance line for 30 year bonds yields (TYX).    Note the TYX now has a Point & Figure resistance at 34.5 and a support at 25.02.   There is still a lot of work to do in order to start a new long term up trend on 30 year interest rates. 

    Time to start paying attention to this chart, as things are starting to heat up.

    Historical comments:  ... Something is slowly going on here.   **Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event.  It will be a "game changer" that causes market pressure on the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. 

    # # #


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