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Friday, July 8th, Marty Chenard's Advanced TA for stock investors

热度 5已有 1131 次阅读2016-7-10 10:17 PM

Friday, July 8th. - Charts & Analysis are below the Quick Summary

There is a positive bias early on, while the market could go either way today as we approach the afternoon.

The focus today should be on the level of buying versus selling and/or what is happening on the ($BKX) Banking Index ... the banking index could see an increase of inflowing liquidity.

FYI ... Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend.  The question should be why are Institutional Investors playing both possibilities sides at the same time? - - - Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Distribution.) - - -   Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending while showing medium term up trending.  These are dangerous and mixed, up conditions.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  

Older comments:  "A crash is not out of the question, and if you have any long positions, they must be hedged as the downside risks are just too great now."   >  > > (As before, our other older comments have not changed:  "Don't think of being long in the market without properly hedging a position.   Nobody knows when, but when this does finally end ... it will end very badly.
                               ____________________________________________

Special Chart 1: The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line and even though it was down, it wasn't a lower/low.- - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

Special Chart 2:  The VIX closed at 14.76. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 
                              ____________________________________________

Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in negative territory. The fast thick red line showed an up tick in Positive territory while still above the red line and blue trend trend lines.  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's trend lines showed up trending in positive territory (with another decrease in Acceleration)  with the fast red bar showing a positive tick.   The bias of the Options Liquidity  showed trend lines up trending and with the blue bar showing a higher positive tick.    The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a lower positive daily tick.    This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.  The NYA may be in a wedge pattern.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very highDanger area.)

Section 1, Chart 2:   The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line and even though it was down, it wasn't a lower/low.- - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."  - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were at a positive level, with the black trend line (on the very top of the chart) being positive while showing a positive divergence that made a higher/high yesterday.  (There is hope, but Danger still lurks.).

Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both, Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend.  The question should be are Institutional Investors playing both possibilities sides at the same time? - - - Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Distribution.)

Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending while showing medium term up trending.  These are dangerous and mixed, up conditions.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  - - -  The top part of the chart showed a down tick in very Low-Q1 positive territory for the Fast Acceleration Rate.  Note the prior Danger label that we posted on the chart is still a possible Danger condition because of the Medium term up trending.

Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** The Super Accelerators showed mixed+ and potentially Dangerous conditions on the three indexes, so a high Caution position is advised (hedging on all long positions).   Current and past comments: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be in cash or if in the market, they should be hedged."  >  Older comments: "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."
                           
   ____________________________________________

This is a quick overview of underlying conditions over the past 3 days (see the matrix below) : 0 Negative readings, 1 Lesser Negative reading1 Neutral Reading, 5 Positive readings, and 1 Lesser Positive reading.

Indicator

Condition and color wanted for an up condition.

Tuesday's Close 
July 5th.

Condition:
Wednesday'sClose 
July 6th.

Condition:
Thursday's Close 
July 7th.

Condition:
1. Unweighted, Positive Sector Stocks above Equilibrium.

A majority of Unweighted Positive Strength stocks above the Equilibrium line. 

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that49.40% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength. (A big drop.)

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that58.20% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

Unweighted Positive Stocks showed that59.00% of the S&P stocks had Positive Strength.

2. A comparison of the number of Very Strong and Very Weak Feeder stocks.

 

The # of Very Strong Feeder stocks higher than the the # of Very Weak Feeder stocks.

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
79 vs 9

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
82 vs 7

The number of Very Strong stocks versus the number of Very Weak stocks was: 
36 vs 8

3. New Highs Trender

Above 180 wanted.

315 (Above 180 wanted)

287 (Above 180 wanted)

238 (Above 180 wanted)

4. New Highs Raw Data

46 to 86 =s neutral.
100+ is a lesser positive;
150+ is the target.

248 reading was 428

260 reading was 428

189 reading was 428

5. New Lows

At or Below 28 Wanted.

21  (At or Below 28.) 

39  (At or Below 28.) 

20  (At or Below 28.) 

6. Institutional Buying & Selling Action

Accumulation

Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both,Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend

Buying had a down tick and Selling had an up tick.  (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in less Distribution.)

Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both,Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend

Buying had an up tick and Selling had a down tick.  (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Distribution.)

Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both, Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend.  The question should be why are Institutional Investors playing both possibilities sides at the same time? - - - Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Distribution.)

7. Long Term Liquidity Inflows

Expansion Territory

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick to Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line andabove a support line.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line and even though it was down, it wasn't a lower/low.

As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

(This box color reflects where the Liquidity levels actually are, and not what their trending is doing.)

8. Daily VIX Reading

The VIX is subject to its behavior analysis

The VIX closed at 15.58. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 14.96. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

The VIX closed at 14.76. This remains a DANGERpossibility for themedium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)

No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 

 

Color Codes:
positiveA lesser positive
neutral 
negativeA lesser negative

 

 

 

> The Institutional Index, the SPY, and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA, and the IWM were below their horizontal resistance lines. 

> The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 62.27 with the C-RSI at a Danger level of -5.54.    The Accelerator had a small up tick in Lower-Q3 negative territory with a small trend line cross-over.    The Timing Indicator was in negative territory with a small up tick that still showed a technical upside trending.  The Banking Index was in a very high risk up condition that started March 1st.  Please note that risk levels are extremely high.

> The Dollar closed at 96.328.   The RSI was at a positive level of 55.51. (we still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line ... it has gained some ground  while it was still struggling.  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occurs after the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentially Dangerous condition that has been technically trending sideways (in a large trading range) since early last year.

10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 13.87.  No Change: There is a medium term upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 

30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 21.40.    No Change:  There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields.  Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Special Charts Section ...

A Note About the Special Section:  This Special Section is normally empty.   However, when there are charts in this section, it is because I add additional charts that I think it will help to add clarity to the market.

Special Charts and Comments:

Special Chart 1:   The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line and even though it was down, it wasn't a lower/low.- - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning." 

Special Chart 2:    The VIX closed at 14.76. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful.



Section 1. - "Money makes the World Go Round" ...
and it also makes the Stock Market Go Round. ...

    This is Section 1 ... This information is critically important because the stock market follows the direction of money flows.  In and out money is the root cause of the market's reaction and trends.   The charts in this Section 1 show the daily Net Condition of various Inflowing Liquidity sources and Institutional Investor Accumulation/Distribution actions.

    Section 1,  Chart 1:  The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in negative territory. The fast thick red line showed an up tick in Positive territory while still above the red line and blue trend trend lines.  > > >  The Options Liquidity Inflow's trend lines showed up trending in positive territory (with another decrease in Acceleration)  with the fast red bar showing a positive tick.   The bias of the Options Liquidity  showed trend lines up trending and with the blue bar showing a higher positive tick.    The Momentum Gain/Loss Indicator showed a lower positive daily tick.    This is a high Danger condition on the short term, that is still maintaining its medium term up trending.  The NYA may be in a wedge pattern.   (The Options Timing chart showed that a new up condition initiated on February 18th.  ... we are in a very high Danger area.)

    \

    Section 1, Chart 2:  Chart of Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...

    Section 1, Chart 2:   The Stock Market's Inflowing Liquidity had a down tick in Mid-Q1 positive territory that was above the current fan line and above a support line and even though it was down, it wasn't a lower/low.- - - As we have been commenting ... "Medium term, the Inflowing Liquidity has been challenging its up trend because of the direction of the fan lines ... subtle, but concerning."  - - -  The indicators at the top of the chart were at a positive level, with the black trend line (on the very top of the chart) being positive while showing a positive divergence that made a higher/high yesterday.  (There is hope, but Danger still lurks.).


    Section 1, Chart 3: Institutional Buying and Selling Activity ...

    Institutional Buying & Selling

    Section 1, Chart 3:   Institutional Investors were in low Accumulation. Both, Buying and Selling were in a technical up trend.  The question should be why are Institutional Investors playing both possibilities sides at the same time? - - - Buying had a down tick and Selling had a down tick. (NOTE ... The Aggressives were in Distribution.) 


    Section 1, Chart 4: 
    The Market Direction is Affected by the amount & trending of Institutional Selling
     ... 

    Section 1, Chart 4:   Institutional Selling showed a down tick while in short term down trending while showing medium term up trending.  These are dangerous and mixed, up conditions.   An increase in Selling is a negative for the market, and a decrease is a positive for the market.  - - -  The top part of the chart showed a down tick in very Low-Q1 positive territory for the Fast Acceleration Rate.  Note the prior Danger label that we posted on the chart is still a possible Danger condition because of the Medium term up trending.


    Section 2, Chart 1:  Our Multi-Indicator Model is below.  It is comprised of our Accelerator, a MACD-C, a 4/9/30 C-RSI (Zero-based Relative Strength), and a Options Timing Indicator.

    The chart and readings are below:
    a.)  The Accelerator's trend lines were in positive territory, and technically up trending and it showed a decrease in its rate of acceleration  The daily tick (green) bar showed a positive tick. 
    b.)  The MACD trend lines were in very low positive territory with the trend lines moving higher with a little decrease in its rate of acceleration.   The fast red bar showed a positive tick. NOTE the TWO negatively divergent (price to MACD) trend lines which have been concerning. 
    c.)  The NYA's 9 CRSI closed at +1.36 and the 30 CRSI that came in at a level of +1.62.   The 4 CRSI closed at +1.76.
    d.)   The Option's Timing Indicator closed with the trend lines still showing upside trending while in negative territory. The fast thick red line showed an up tick in Positive territory while still above the red line and blue trend trend lines.

    Conclusion The NYA Index was showed a Sell signal on August 20th. and it is showing a Dangerouslevel with a basing condition that has been trying to start up trending while it is also weak and facing opposition.  The NYA is under high stress and in a "Very High Danger Area".


    _________________________________________

    Before we go to the Super Accelerator charts, here is the legend for the C-RSI levels and below that are the C-RSI level readings for the past 5 days.  
    (Note: If there are any Black cells, they indicate that an ETF is in a Super Accelerator Sell condition.) 

    ***   Note ... all the Super Accelerators have low positive CRSI levels which is 
    a "Hold" condition that will be under test during the next 24 hours.
      
    The market ... it doesn't change trends until it does.

    Section 2, Chart 2:  ** The S&P (SPY) Super Accelerator ... 
    The SPY's Super Accelerator showed trend lines that were moving higher with merged+ trend lines while under high stress.  The SPY's S.T. Accelerator had a sideways tick in Lower-Q1 positive territory with the trend lines showing a small upside cross-over.  The CRSI was at a Caution-Positive level of +3.01.  The SPY was in a Hold+ condition.


      _________________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 3:  The NASDAQ 100 Super Accelerator ... 

    The NDX's Super Accelerator trend lines were in Mid-Q2 positive territory and showing up trending.  The S.T. Accelerator had an up tick to Upper-Q2 positive territory with the trend lines showing up trending.  The C-RSI showed a Caution-Low Positive level of +2.31 and it was in a Hold+ condition.


    ______________________________________

    Section 2, Chart 4:  *** The Russell 2000 Super Accelerator ... 

    The IWM's Super Accelerator's trend lines showed technical down trending in Lower-Q1 territory.  The S.T. Accelerator had a small up tick in Lower-Q2 positive territory with merged trend lines  The CRSI tick was at a Danger-Positive level of +1.91.   > Older comments: "The IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on it."   The IWM was in a hold condition.


    Super Accelerator Model Synopsis for the above charts:   

    Section 2 Super Accelerator Summary:  *** The Super Accelerators showed mixed+ and potentially Dangerous conditions on the three indexes, so a high Caution position is advised (hedging on all long positions).   Current and past comments: "Risk levels are very high and investors should be in cash or if in the market, they should be hedged."  >  Older comments: "The NDX or the IWM could end up being a canary in a coal mine, so keep an eye on them."   

    Section 3. - Comparative Index Readings 
    for the Institutional Index, the NYA, SPY, NDX, IWM, and the VIX Index.
      
     

    [Chart Background:  Institutional Investor holdings represent over 50% of the market's investment in equities.   As an index, Institutional Index movements track better than any other indicator as the market's movement and direction.

    Section 3, Chart 1:  The Institutional Index, the SPY, and the NDX./QQQ, were above their  horizontal resistance/support lines.   The NYA, and the IWM were below their horizontal resistance lines. 

    Section 3, Chart 2:  The VIX closed at 14.76. This remains a DANGER possibility for the medium term. (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.) - - - No change in past comments: "The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. 


    A close up of the VIX's action ...


    Section 4. - Longer Term Bull/Bear Market Chart ...

    *** Longer term charts in this section are updated only once per week on MONDAY morning

    Section 4, Chart 1:  The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

    Tuesday, July 5th.   ALERT ... DANGER WARNING ... Risk Levels are dangerously high with this long term model saying that we at an early stage of entering a Bear market.   As with all Bear Markets, there will be short term up moves while trending downward on the longer term.   This Bear market is a bit different than the past ones in that the Fed will do all it can to keep the market from crashing (and maintaining its upward movement toward this November) while hoping that the economy will turn around before a bad down move.   If you are a long term player, you should not be in any long positions unless you are playing the shorter term, know how to hedge, and/or play intra-day conditions.   The Bull is terminally ill and only the nursing Fed is keeping it in a life sustaining condition.  - -  The MACD was at a negative level of -0.92.   The C-RSI came in at a positive +9.29.  (Old comments: FYI ... don't forget that this is a "monthly" chart and that this is only a "weekly look" at the progress or changes in a "monthly" chart which will next technically end on June 30th. (the last trading day of this month).


    Section 5. The Banking Index ...

    Section 5, Chart 1:  ...  The Banking Index (Symbol: $KX)

    Section 5, Chart 1:  The Banking Index ... The Banking Index closed at 62.27 with the C-RSI at aDanger level of -5.54.    The Accelerator had a small up tick in Lower-Q3 negative territory with a small trend line cross-over.    The Timing Indicator was in negative territory with a small up tick that still showed a technical upside trending.  The Banking Index was in a very high risk up condition that started March 1st.  Please note that risk levels are extremely high.


    Section 5, Chart 2:   Below is the Banking Index's Point & Figure chart.   This long term chart has been pointing out the dangerous condition that the banking system is in.   Older Comments: ... there could be a Head & Shoulder pattern here with downside future implications.   


    Section 6. - The U.S. Dollar, 10 and 30 Year Bond Yields.

    Section 6, Chart 1:  The U.S. Dollar ... Daily Chart 

    The Dollar closed at 96.328.   The RSI was at a positive level of 55.51. (we still need the RSI to rise above its upper (green) resistance line ... it has gained some ground  while it was still struggling.  50 is a neutral reading on the RSI.   NOTE that the Dollar did test the 100.39 level and pulled back in December after making a double top ... it could retest that level (100.31 to 100.51)  (Do remember that this remains a Dangerous condition where a blow out level with a sharp down move typically occursafter the up move finishes.)   - - Ref: U.S. Dollar symbol: USDX, or $USDX.   This is a potentiallyDangerous condition that has been technically trending sideways (in a large trading range) since early last year.


    Section 6, Chart 2:  The U.S. Dollar ... Longer Term ... 

    For perspective, this is the (Weekly) Longer Term chart of the Dollar.  Notice the consolidation that has been going on.  Do note the Fan Line I drew on this chart and the "double top" test that is going on.   It is a very important level for the Dollar to move above the "double top", so keep an eye on it ... it is also important for the Dollar to not close below the 92.63 level.

    _______________________________________

    Section 6, Chart 3:  10 Year Bond Yields.

    10 Year bond yields (TNX) closed at 13.87.  No Change: There is a medium term upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields.  DO NOTE that the TNX has 3 resistance levels that it is dealing with and it was below three levels.    Prior comments:  As we have been commenting: "we could see high volatility at this juncture".    Older comments:   >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".    The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions. 


    Section 6, Chart 4:  10 Year, Weekly Bond Yields. 

    This is a weekly chart of the 10 Year bond yields.  The yield bulls have been showing strength and trying to build a base for the longer term.  *** We are now in an area where the TNX is at an important decision point ... there is a resistance at 24.07 that is still technically in play


    Section 6, Chart 5:  30 Year Bond Yields.

    30 Year bond yields (TYX)   The TYX closed at 21.40.    No Change:  There is an upside bias "trying" to build on the 10 and 30 year bond yields.  Old Comments: Note that something else could be going on with yields many countries are showing price declines (deflation) compared to a year earlier.)  The danger for us is "if and when" the tide of deflation could become large enough to over power us. >> Older comments:  >>> Investing Philosophy to consider:  1. Don't invest in stock or medium that you don't understand.  2. Don't invest in anything that is "interfered with" or "manipulated".  The TNX and TYX fit the second category with the Fed's interventions.

    Section 6, Chart 6:   30 Year, Weekly Bond Yields.

    This is the TYX's weekly chart.  


    Section 6, Chart 7:  30 Year Yields, Point & Figure Chart.

    Below, is the 22 year Point & Figure chart showing the 20 year down sloping resistance line for 30 year bonds yields (TYX).    Note the TYX now has a Point & Figure resistance at 34.5 and a support at 25.02.   There is still a lot of work to do in order to start a new long term up trend on 30 year interest rates. 

    Time to start paying attention to this chart, as things are starting to heat up.

    Historical comments:  ... Something is slowly going on here.   **Do not under-estimate the importance of such an event.  It will be a "game changer" that causes market pressure on the economy along with the necessary re-evaluation of future economic forecasts. 

    # # #


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