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已有 310 次阅读2009-9-26 10:11 PM |

How you can learn to Identify Stock Market Tops

To detect a market top, keep a close eye on the daily S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite as they work their way higher. On one of the days in the uptrend, volume for the market as a whole will increase from the day before, but the index itself will show stalling action (a significantly smaller price increase for the day compared with the prior day's price increase). I call this "heavy volume without further price progress up." The average doesn't have to close down for the day, but in most instances it will, making the distribution (professional investors liquidate stock) must easier to see. The day range (spread from the average's daily high to its daily low) may in some cases be a little wider than on previous days.

Normal liquidation near the market peak will usually occur on three to five specific days over a period of four or five weeks. In other words, the market comes under distribution wile it's advancing! This is one reason so few people know how to recognize distribution. After four or five days of definite distribution over any span of four or five weeks, the general market will almost always turn down.

Four days of distribution, if correctly spotted over a two- or three-week period, are sometimes enough to turn a previously advancing market into a decline. Sometimes distribution can be spread over six weeks if the market attempts at some point to rally back to new highs.

... If one index is down for the day on volume larger than the prior day's volume, it should decline more than 0.2% for this to be counted as a distribution day.

Three Signs the First Rally Attempt May Fail


After the market does top out, it typically will rally feebly and then fail. After the first day's rebound, for instance, the second day will open strongly but suddenly turn down near the end of the session. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its first recovery attempt should probably be met with further selling on your part.

You'll know that the initial bounce back is feeble if (1) the index advances in price on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day, but on volume that is lower than that of the day before, (2) the average makes little net upward price progress compared with its progress the day before, or(3)the market average recovers less than half of the initial drop from its former absolute intraday high. When you see these weak rallies and failures, further selling is advisable.

From p210 of <How to Make Money in Stocks -- a winning system in good times or bad> (Updated fourth edition) by William J. O'Neil
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回复 seabiscuit 2009-9-26 10:25 PM
谢谢!

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