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2011-05-14 Wild Wild Wild

热度 27已有 1398 次阅读2011-5-14 11:28 PM |

Something working in the past doesn't mean it keeps working.  Fundamental said so.
People claimed stocks are not expensive might have forgotten their finance lessons from university  - If the equity's earning at high of its growth cycle,  P/E ratio seems even lower, but this doen't mean stock is cheap. Because the high earning can't sustain and higher than mean level growth always falls toward mean level,  this is the mean reversion rule in any asset valuation.  Shut up , those talking heads on CNBC!
 
Talking about technical,  my wild guess is all in the picture.  If ES falls below the 1330 level by next week's close, I am a strong believer that this level will be the ceiling of 2nd half 2011.  Mark my word, if I am wrong, call me stupid.
 
In my mind, the most dangerous snake in the room is AUD, this is the king currency of the commodity bubble. If AUD accelerates its downward move toward 1.0200 level, that will be good news to equity bears & USD bulls.
Take your positions and hold your breathe, and watch -  POP or DROP.
 
I want to stamp the future of 2011 with one word  - Stagflation!
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刚表态过的朋友 (23 人)

发表评论 评论 (10 个评论)

回复 CoolMax 2011-5-15 12:27 AM
原创还是转帖啊?
回复 learner2009 2011-5-15 12:41 AM
should be 原创. match his recent market view.

Thx for the information.
回复 like2swing 2011-5-15 08:38 AM
I think it's 原创.
回复 yaobooyao 2011-5-15 09:33 AM
回复 oldpigwang 2011-5-15 11:05 AM
call me stupid.
回复 wyemlyy 2011-5-15 08:04 PM
谢谢老姚,已经跌到1330以下了
回复 yaobooyao 2011-5-15 08:43 PM
wyemlyy: 谢谢老姚,已经跌到1330以下了
别急,看周五收盘是否低于1330。市场未来还有一次可能的“暴涨日”,就是美国政府债务上限被国会批准抬高的那天。不过,这种消息日,绝不是狂欢追涨的日子,而是大户趁机出货的时刻。
回复 wyemlyy 2011-5-15 09:27 PM
yaobooyao: 别急,看周五收盘是否低于1330。市场未来还有一次可能的“暴涨日”,就是美国政府债务上限被国会批准抬高的那天。不过,这种消息日,绝不是狂欢追涨的日子,而是 ...
记得好像原来是5/11号,后来推迟到8月了,就是说近期不会有这个利好因素了
回复 yaobooyao 2011-5-15 09:57 PM
不必等到8月,股市只需要一次情绪化的“利好”消息而已 ,即使是官方的谣传也行。
回复 MFTHT 2011-5-16 03:30 PM
3x.

facelist doodle 涂鸦板

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