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October Almanac- Where bear markets end.

热度 4已有 487 次阅读2011-9-29 11:44 PM

等着捞底。。。。

By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
October has a dreadful history of market crashes such as in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in point and percentage terms. It is no wonder that the term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month.

But October has been a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Eleven post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001 and 2002. However, eight were midterm bottoms. With declaration of an official bear market taking place last week, perhaps this October will join the ranks of the “bear killing” club. Despite the bumbling manner in which Europe has dealt with its debt crisis and the potential risks of a major sovereign default, U.S. markets have proven resilient when compared with the performance of most other equity markets. Numerous foreign markets have declined well over 20% compared to Dow’s roughly 14% decline from its April high.

Options expiration week in October provides plenty of opportunity. On the Monday before expiration the Dow has only been down six times since 1980 and the Russell 2000 is up eighteen of the last twenty-one years, seventeen straight from 1990 to 2006. Expiration day has a spotty record as does the week as a whole. After a market bottom in October, the week after is most bullish, otherwise it is susceptible to downdrafts.

Pre-election year Octobers are rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Eliminating gruesome 1987 from the calculation only provides a moderate amount of relief. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for depressed technology and small-cap shares.

October is also the end of the Dow and S&P 500 “Worst 6 Months” and NASDAQ “Worst 4 Months”. Remain on the alert for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal that can occur anytime beginning October 3. An email alert will be issued when it triggers. At that time we may establish new long positions in SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM). We may also pickup any remaining open recommendations from the ETF Portfolio.


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