日志

Next week (4/10-) Index forecast

热度 4已有 825 次阅读2017-4-9 11:15 PM |个人分类:炒股

Monday，4/10/17， align to Day 6:

SVXY Probability of gap up 70%,

SVXY Day market statistically equal probability of up/down,

SVXY model profit factor: 3; Probability of winning 63%

Tuesday, 4/11/17, align to Day 7:

SVXY Equal probability of gap up/down,

SVXY Day market probability of going up 67%

SVXY model profit factor: 4; Probability of winning 69%

Wednesday, 4/12/17, align to Day 8:

SVXY Equal probability of gap up/down,

SVXY Day market is risky!

UVXY model profit factor:>4; Probability of winning 70%

Thursday, 4/13/17, align to Day 9:

SVXY Equal probability of gap up/down,

SVXY Day market is risky!

UVXY model profit factor:>3; Probability of winning 61%

Good Friday, 4/14/17, trading holiday.

回复 xinxing 2017-4-10 07:34 PM: Monday Review: Today, SPY index is more closer to the prediction: SPY tiny gaped up, day swung, ended marginal green, while, SVXY stock was not proportional to, dropped close to 4%, but SVXY model peacefully run across the day, no up-trend formed, no trade. Last 52 months align count: gain/0/loss = +24/14/-14. Profit factor remains unchanged. Tomorrow market should get better, both market and model are profitable.

回复 xinxing 2017-4-11 04:37 PM: Tuesday Review: Today's market is very interesting. SVXY index went down-up-down, a complex pattern. At 12:59, an up-trend even formed, but in a forbidden window, SVXY model didn't place any order.
UVXY model caught a fake one at 11:29 AM and released in 38 minutes later.
Then, UVXY model recaptured a second chance at 2:50 PM for hold 46 minutes, finally caught profit 1.13%.
Historical data shows tomorrow has strong bias, in favor of UVXY model. Let's see.

回复 xinxing 2017-4-12 08:14 PM: Wednesday Review: SPY went down, SVXY closed flat.
UVXY model tracked the whole trading hour, an up-trend formed, which is too late to buy. No order was placed. Cont. tomorrow.

回复 xinxing 2017-4-13 03:40 PM: Thursday Review. Today's result falls into the law of large numbers (LLN). Chance is on bear side, where UVXY model BOT at 1:01 PM, but SLD at 2:52 PM, which missed an excellent later chance. That's the end of this week.