Fatdaddy market stance ...

angelafund

I am starting a new thread to state my stance on the market conditions ...

If you look around, what you often see is the following,

In bull market, what you often see is a constant calling for market tops; In bear market, you see the opposite.

In trend following, what you do is to make objective judgement on the current market conditions and ask yourself a question: are the major indexes acting poorly? are the leading growth stocks under severe distribution? If your question to both is no, then you sit tight with your winners.

In trend following, we don't care what the market will do tomorrow. We make no predictions and we do NOT anticipate.

As of Sept 1, Fatdaddy turned decisively a BULL.

There has not been any change since that date.

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The above was posted in trader1688, i am opening a thread to publish it here in HT as well.

wave

The question is how to define the trend and how to find it?  "As of Sept 1, Fatdaddy turned decisively a BULL", if no prediction, how to make such judgment?

vinceyin

what kind of parameters to identify a trend earlier?

Poo

thanks

bigbadwolf

多谢！

x9999

回复 4# Poo


    you can't know a trend start or not for sure. what you do is watch price and volume. if it's large price gain at high volume, then probably
it's upside movement. it may or may not develop into a tradable trend. but you put in some money buy some stocks, watch market,
if it continue go high, buy more. otherwise sell.  
it's try and error.
the key point is being flexible. this is extremely important.  nobody knows stock market 100%. if you can be flexible, you're close to make money. the technical/fundamental analysis is secondary. that's easy part.

trueself

I am starting a new thread to state my stance on the market conditions ...

If you look around, wh ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-10-22 08:50

   

angelafund

回复  Poo


    you can't know a trend start or not for sure. what you do is watch price and vol ...
x9999 发表于 2010-10-22 10:50

This is  a great answer ... !!!

Nobody knows the future. Once you identify the possible change of the trend, you test the market with deployment of fund. If the market can prove itself, you add more positions. Strong trend is started once your first deployment of fund produces solid gains, then you know you might get something tradable.

Great reply, x9999!

angelafund

what kind of parameters to identify a trend earlier?
vinceyin 发表于 2010-10-22 09:00

you never want to step ahead of the market ... majority of the traders want to know ahead of the market what it wants to do. This is a dangerous practice. In trend following, you always want to be reactive, not pro-active to the market price/vol action.

You let the market tell you what its true intention is, then you react to it.

ranchgirl

In trend following, we don't care what the market will do tomorrow. We make no predictions and we do NOT anticipate.

angelafund 发表于 2010-10-22 08:50

agreed 100%

bam

回复 8# angelafund

Ave

angelafund

The following was posted in trader1688, I am copying it here as well,

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Let's see how the rally unfolds.

Historically, a good trend lasts at least 14-18 weeks before some good correction sets in. A shorter one lasts 8-10 weeks. A bull market normally lasts 18-24 months with 2-3 major uplegs in between.

So far this rally has been 8 weeks long. The Feb rally lasts 10 weeks. If this follows the normal path, I think this rally has a good chance to rally until the year end or early next yr. If it follows the 24 months cycle, then we could see the rally lasts until next March.

The longer the uptrend, the better the chance to make money ... so I am holding my top 4 holdings tight ... GOOD/BIDU/CMG/NFLX ... i am looking to add some exposure to PCLN ... I am not going to sell them until I see definite signs of market topping actions ...

so far the rally is aive and kicking ...

coolgal

Good to know, thanks

angelafund

i repeat my market stance, we are still in the uptrend started since Sept 1.

Big money is made by riding the whole uptrend, not worrying about the day to day fluctuations ...

netfire

angelafund

Market is in official sell signal, I am moving to cash. Fatdaddy's book has changed to market in correction.

angelafund

Market is in danger of slipping into a correction ...

more on this later tonight.

Ed02

Thanks!

COS