中国央行加息对股市的影响

iamwym

对A股周三的走势，个人经验是低开高走然后回落，全天下跌。几个要点：

1. 加息利好银行股，可是银行股已经超买，存在冲高回落的可能。
2. 加息利空资源股，资源股调整顺理成章。
3. 加息今年应该不会是最后一次，对后市的研判比较类似于06-07的加息周期，应该是总体股市仍然向上。
4. 仍然以中小盘为主，中小波涨过一波后，全体调整，还是以质优银行保险股为主要策略。
5. 加息提振人民币升值预期，仍然利好中国股市，特别是航空股。

总体上千金难买牛回头，历史上任何市场没有一次是因为加息转熊，同样没有一次因为减息转牛。

cheory

呵呵，我才把加息的文章贴了，你连影响都贴了，快呀

handada

"interest rising, price down"  

学经济的 入门第一课就会讲的

iamwym

"interest rising, price down"  

学经济的 入门第一课就会讲的
handada 发表于 2010-10-19 08:44

    学经济的去炒股票一般立马歇菜。

handada

学经济的去炒股票一般立马歇菜。
iamwym 发表于 2010-10-19 08:49

    要是能混到 trading house 里上班就好了

shcece

中国进入加息周期了。一般加息周期里面股市走牛

iamwym

要是能混到 trading house 里上班就好了
handada 发表于 2010-10-19 08:54

一般trading floor要的是数学物理的人。而且累得慌，三班倒，基本是拿命换钱。

handada

不怕累， 没事干更烦， 度日如年。 一本武侠小说都读完了

escortid

很及时啊

过山车

我觉得，06-07年是经济过热加息，现在是被通胀推动的加息，也许是滞胀加息，所以对股市的影响也许有所不同？

handada

By Aileen Wang and David Stanway
    BEIJING, Oct 19 (Reuters) - China's central bank surprised on Tuesday with
its first increase of interest rates in nearly three years, a move that reflects
its concern about rising asset prices and stubborn inflation.
       It said it was raising benchmark rates by 25 basis points, taking
one-year deposit rates to 2.5 percent and one-year lending rates to 5.56
percent.
       The impact was felt by global markets across the board. Oil prices fell,
stock markets turned negative in Europe and the dollar rose as investors were
caught off guard by the tightening step.
       "The interest rate rise is entirely outside of market expectations," said
Zhu Jiangfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing.
       "The recent rise in headline inflation has put the real rate into
negative territory. And I think that's why the central bank needs to raise
interest rates in such a hasty way," he said.
       Although announced by the People's Bank of China, the decision to
increase rates would have received approval from the highest echelons of Chinese
power, with Premier Wen Jiabao likely signing off on it.
       Once a consensus has been forged in Beijing to raise or cut rates, past
experience shows that moves often come in bunches.

handada

US cotton stumbles on China interest news, dollar


19.10.10 16:24



NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. cotton futures slid Tuesday on
investor liquidation after China unexpected upped its interest rates and
helped push the U.S. dollar to a session high, analysts said.
    The U.S. cotton market, which hit its highest level since the Civil War
in the 19th century last Friday, crumbled as a result of China's
announcement as speculative investment funds unloaded their holdings in the
market.
    Cotton prices have jumped over 65 percent since July due to tight
stocks, strong demand and buying by investment funds who felt the fiber was
the next big thing in commodities.
    "It certainly was a catalyst for the sell-off," Keith Brown, president
of commodity firm Keith Brown and Co. in Moultrie, Georgia, said of the
move by China and the knock-on effect on the dollar.
    ICE Futures U.S. key December cotton contract fell 2.80 cents to
trade at $1.1057 per lb at 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT), near the bottom of its
$1.1024 to $1.1475 band.
    The announcement by Beijing came after its own cotton market had closed
higher.
    The Zhengshou Commodity Exchange's May cotton futures was last
traded at 23,940 yuan per tonne, up 245 yuan from its previous close.
    The Mississippi Historical Society said cotton prices traded at their
highest level since the Civil War when a blockade by the federal Navy of
Confederate state ports drove prices to as high as $1.89 per lb.
    Fundamentally, analysts said the cotton market is still seeing strong
consumer demand from China, and supply and demand have driven cotton ending
stocks to their lowest level since 1995.
        
(Reporting by Rene Pastor; Editing by John Picinich)
(rene.pastor@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6047; Reuters
Messaging: rene.pastor.reuters.com@reuters.net)

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:     ICE cotton
futures     RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS     All cotton news   
Grain/oilseed/cotton news     Cotlook Daily     All commodities news      
Grains diary     Weather news       Foreign exchange rates China cotton   
China's cotton futures NYMEX cotton Keywords: MARKETS COTTON

handada

Glance-Miners pull FTSE lower after China rate rise


19.10.10 14:24



By Simon Falush
    LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index fell
slightly around midday on Tuesday as a surprise rate hike by
China put pressure on mining stocks, offsetting gains from banks
on solid results from Citigroup and Bank of America.
    By 1135 GMT the FTSE 100 was 15.15 points or 0.3
percent lower at 5,756.14 after it gained 0.7 percent on Monday.
    China will raise its benchmark one-year lending and deposit
rate by 25 basis points effective from Oct. 20, the central bank
said on Tuesday.
    This put pressure on mining stocks on worries that higher
borrowing costs may crimp demand in the fast-growing economy.
    Xstrata was the biggest faller, down 4.7 percent,
also pressured by mixed third-quarter production figures for its
two key products.  
    Rio Tinto fell 1.8 percent while Vedanta Resources
lost 2.3 percent.
    "It has ramifications for the mining stocks, but you could
argue that it reflects a move to prevent a real estate bubble
which will be good for the country in the medium term," Graham
Secker, European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said.  
    "I don't think it heralds the start of more rate rises
elsewhere."
    Banks were the biggest support for the index, lifted by
better-than-expected results from Citigroup on Monday.   
    Bank of America Corp, the largest U.S. bank by
assets, said on Tuesday that its third-quarter net loss
quadrupled from a year ago.
    However, excluding a non-cash goodwill charge the bank
reported net income of $3.1 billion, or 27 cents per share,
beating analysts' forecast for EPS of 16 cents, according to
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
    Majority state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland added
2.4 percent while Barclays gained 1.6 percent.
     
    TECHNICAL SUPPORT
    The index has posted nearly 10 percent gains since the start
of September, and technical analysts see little in the way of
obstacles for further strength.
    "The index has broken out of the summer range and has stayed
above that ever since, it's taken out a lot of retracement
levels,"  said Phil Roberts, chief European technical strategist
at Barclays Capital.  
    "The market has been doing well, a nice steady grind
higher."
    Energy stocks fell, weighed down by a 1 percent drop in the
price of crude oil. BG Group, BP and Royal
Dutch Shell all declined 0.3-0.8 percent.
    ARM Holdings retreated 2.6 percent, pressured as
Apple -- for whom it designs chips -- disappointed investors with
weaker-than-expected gross margins and iPad shipments.
    British factory orders fell at their sharpest pace since
April, the CBI's October industrial trends survey showed on
Tuesday.   
    But David Buik, senior partner at BGC Partners, said the
outlook for UK equities looks to be set fair, despite tough
times ahead for the domestic economy.
    "(The FTSE 100) pays decent dividends, 70 percent of
earnings come from overseas and we've been cheered so far by a
decent set of earnings, and I don't see any other asset class as
looking attractive."
    Autonomy bucked a weaker trend for European tech
stocks, gaining 4.4 percent to top the blue-chip leaderboard
after it said fundamental demand for its products remained
strong and it could still beat expectations for 2011.

handada

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, commodities fall after China rate hike


19.10.10 14:19



By Dominic Lau
    LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - World stocks, commodity prices and the Australian
dollar fell on Tuesday after China raised its interest rates for the first time
since 2007 to keep a rein on its booming economy.
       The People's Bank of China said it would raise its benchmark one-year
lending and deposit rate by 25 basis points effective from Oct. 20.
       World stocks measured by MSCI All-Country World Index  fell 0.4 percent
and the Thomson Reuters global equity index dropped 0.9 percent, while the MSCI
emerging market benchmark slipped 0.6 percent.
       The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of
currencies, rose 0.8 percent after hitting the day's high of 77.592.
       "The PBOC move follows a clear need by the Chinese authorities to take
out some of the heat from the economy. Whether this move will lead to a broader
move on its currency is open to debate," said Simon Derrick, head of currency
research at Bank of New York Mellon.
       "It certainly leads to speculation that the U.S. and China are in some
sort of a deal which will perhaps see the U.S. taking a more gradualist approach
to quantitative easing. The dollar has already moved higher after this news."
       The greenback was earlier supported by comments from U.S. Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner in favour of a strong dollar.
       The Australian dollar, seen as a proxy of China's economic growth because
of the country's commodity exports to China, fell to the day's low of $0.9805
from $0.9880.
       Futures on the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq Composite index extended losses,
down 1.3 percent to indicate a weaker opening, after Apple reported
weaker-than-expected gross margins and iPad shipments disappointed investors.
       Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones fell 0.2 and 0.6 percent,
respectively.
       Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, said its third quarter
net loss quadrupled from a year ago, as the bank recorded a previously announced
$10.4 billion goodwill charge for its card business.
       In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index eased 0.1 percent after trading in
positive territory before Chinese rates announcement.
       As China is a major consumer of commodities, the reaction was broadly
bearish. Copper prices lost 1.6 percent and gold fell 1 percent, while oil
prices dropped 1.6 percent to trade below $82 a barrel.
       Commodity prices and emerging market assets have been buoyed by
expectations of another round of money-printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve to
stimulate a flagging recovery as investors searched for higher yields, while the
dollar has come under pressure against other currencies.
       Emerging market shares have gained more than 12 percent this year,
outpacing a 6-percent rise in global equities.
       The market is looking for further clues on the size of the quantitative
easing, and will scrutinise any comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and
other U.S. central bank officials later in the day.

handada

CANADA STOCKS-TSX may open lower after China hikes rates


19.10.10 15:17



Oct 19 (Reuters) - Toronto's main stock index could open lower on Tuesday
after China, the world's biggest resource consumer, surprised investors with its
first increase of interest rates in nearly three years
      
       FACTORS TO WATCH
      * Canadian equity futures pointed to a lower open.
      * U.S. stock index futures pointed to a weaker start as Bank of America's
result showed net loss quadrupled from a year ago, while iPad maker Apple's
quarterly sales of the gadget and gross margins came in below expectations
       * Canada's central bank is expected to hold its key policy rate at 1
percent in its scheduled announcement at 9 a.m. (1300 GMT), while the tone of
its statement will be closely followed for further direction.
       * European shares edged up led by industrial and financial stocks
       * Asian markets were mixed, with weakness in the technology and commodity
sectors limiting the gains
      
       COMMODITY PRICE MOVES
       * The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global commodities
benchmark, fell 0.84 percent in early trade.
       * Oil fell, retracing part of the previous session's gain, as the dollar
climbed and traders awaited results from U.S. investment banks later in the day
for signs of economic strength in the major oil consumer.
       * Gold held steady near $1,370 an ounce in Europe as expectations for
further monetary easing in the United States continued to support prices, though
gains in the dollar put the brakes on the metal's run higher.
       * Copper tumbled from highs on Tuesday as top consumer China said it
would raise its benchmark lending rate and a stronger dollar weighed.
      
       CANADIAN STOCKS TO WATCH
       * Potash Corp.. The CEO of Yara International said that the Norwegian
fertiliser firm was open to buying assets from Potash.
       * Premium Brands Holdings Corp.. The food products maker said it bought
specialty sandwich maker SK Food Group Inc for about $42.5 million, the fourth
deal this year for the Canadian food products maker.
       * Exile Resources: The junior oil and gas explorer said use of a new,
cheaper method to ship crude oil will lead to a delay in first production at its
Akepo field development project in Nigeria.

handada

看来 中国的影像还是很大的

cheory

据说周小川刚说完年底不加息，不知道有没人留意，如果看到了就应该知道天朝加息在望，加上五中全会一闭幕，马上加息．呵呵，以后按这个思路肯定能推算出哪一天．

handada

FOREX-Chinese rate rise undercuts risk, helps US dollar
--------
By Steven C. Johnson
    NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - A surprise interest rate
increase from China on Tuesday rattled currency investors, who
cut exposure to risk by selling the euro and
commodity-sensitive Australian dollar and taking refuge in the
U.S. dollar.
    Investors feared a quarter percentage point rise in China's
one-year lending rate could dampen Chinese and global growth
and slow China's voracious demand for commodities, many of
which come from Australia.
    "China's rate increase instantaneously pushed people to
take risk off the table," said Boris Schlossberg, director of
research at GFT Forex. "They are trying to clamp down on growth
and that's going to reflect badly on Australia, on Germany, on
much of the world economy as it readjusts to the idea that
Chinese growth may not be as torrid as expected."
    The Australian dollar, which last week rose above parity
with its U.S. counterpart for the first time since 1983, was
hit hardest, slipping 1.5 percent to $0.9789.
    The euro, yen and sterling also fell sharply, with the euro
down 0.9 percent at $1.3820, off a $1.4003 session peak.
The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 81.72 yen, its best daily
gain since Japan intervened to weaken the yen on Sept. 15.
    The dollar hit a 15-year low beneath 81 yen last week, not
far from a 79.75 record low set in 1995.
    The U.S. currency also rose 1.7 percent to 1.0350 Canadian
dollars after the Bank of Canada left interest rates at
1 percent and cut is growth forecast.

revolver

how funny, it's only 25 basis points. a wrong movement at wrong time at wrong degree. china government is almost conducting a slow motion financial suicide.

Whigs

仅从热钱逐利的角度，加息对A股市场是大利好！