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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
ST Model |
09/24 L |
Breakeven |
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SHORT-TERM: CPCI TOO HIGH WAS NOT A GOOD SIGN
我发现我说话比分析股市管用,09/10 Market Recap,标题“Show me the strength”,结果the next trading day开始大盘就猛涨,10/08 Market Recap,标题我说“No 2 Consecutive Up Days for 3 Weeks ”,结果就是连涨3天。我在想,是不是哪天我说Give me SPX 3000,咱们大家就都可以提前退休了?呵呵。
Anyway,股市终于连涨了3天,这是好现象,这样的话,我在10/05 Market Recap里提到的可能repeat what happened in April that after 10/05 breakout, there could be 16 more trading days upswing ahead就又变得有可能了。这里,我不是强调16天,而是说熊熊要做好最坏的打算,在没有连续几天pullback之前形成的new high,几乎guaranteed will be tested,换句话说,就是既使明天开始大跌,今天的high at SPX 1172 (near 1172 is OK, either higher or lower) most likely will be tested after the pullback。(为什么?这是一般pattern哈,愚蠢的地球人做什么事情都喜欢试两次,两次都失败了,才有反转的可能,要不怎么会Double Top/Double Bottom很常见呢?)
其他没啥好说的,今天又多了个bad sign,下面的图应该很清楚,CPCI太高不是好现象。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
- October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.
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