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[转贴] Quarter End Window Dressing真的存在吗?

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发表于 2008-3-31 12:18 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


As we near the end of the quarter I’ve begun to hear quite a bit about the “end-of-quarter markup” phenomenon. I’ve also received a few questions about it. The theory is that mutual funds and other large institutions tend to “mark up” the prices of securities at the end of each quarter so that their return numbers look better. I decided to take a look.

First I ran a test which showed the return of the S&P 500 on the last day of each quarter going back to 1960. Of the 186 quarter-ends over the period, 90 have had a positive last day of quarter, 94 finished negative, and 2 were basically dead even. The average win was 0.065%. The average loss was 0.06%. The net average day was 0.001%. Not even as good as an average day over the period.

I then checked to see what happened if the market sold off the few days leading up to the last day of the quarter (like now). For instance, 7 times the market sold off at least 2.5% in the last 3 days of the month. Five saw gains on the last day and two saw more losses. Unfortunately, the losses nearly eclipsed the gains. Lowering the requirement to a 1.5% selloff in the preceding 3 days gave 18 trades. 9 winners and 9 losers. Net expectancy was slightly negative.

I then looked at what happened if the S&P was down at least 3 days in a row just before the last day of the quarter. Twenty occurrences. 10 winners. 10 losers. Slight negative expectancy.

Looking at recent history rather than all the way back to 1960 did not help these studies.

No matter how I looked I was not able to find any evidence of an end of quarter mark-up in the index. Perhaps mark-ups occur in individual securities, but it’s not apparent in the general market.

Since I figured some people might be getting sick of looking at those “Myth Buster” guys, I posted some other Busters today…
[ 本帖最后由 Cobra 于 2008-3-31 13:25 编辑 ]
发表于 2008-3-31 12:30 PM | 显示全部楼层

 

 

 

 

存在!!!。。。。。

 

 

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-3-31 12:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2008-3-31 12:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
比去年的year end rally还不如啊。
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发表于 2008-3-31 12:33 PM | 显示全部楼层

给自己发钻石的眼镜蛇一定不是好蛇。。。。。

 

 

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发表于 2008-3-31 12:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-3-31 12:42 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 金牛银熊 于 2008-3-31 13:33 发表 给自己发钻石的眼镜蛇一定不是好蛇。。。。。    

 

能骑自己的熊,一定不是好熊。

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发表于 2008-3-31 12:51 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-3-31 13:42 发表   能骑自己的熊,一定不是好熊。

 

 

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发表于 2008-3-31 02:43 PM | 显示全部楼层
I guess not everyone is dressing... just a hunch
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发表于 2008-3-31 03:45 PM | 显示全部楼层

看看华尔街的鬼话连篇:

 

Stocks Rise on Quarter's Final Day
Monday March 31, 4:34 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Stocks Rise to Finish Weak First Quarter; Chicago PMI Better Than Expected

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street closed a dismal first quarter with a moderate gain Monday, rising after a reading on regional manufacturing came in better than expected.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, considered a precursor to the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey on Tuesday, rose to 48.2 in March from 44.5 a month earlier. Economists had been expecting a reading of 47.3, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Though the reading topped forecasts, a figure below 50 nonetheless indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

 

The market's reaction, however, was likely not as enthusiastic as it might seem from gains by the major indexes. Volume was very light, which tends to skew price movements, and the final day of the quarter had some institutions buying more for show rather than on any conviction about the economy.

It has been a difficult quarter on Wall Street, with financial companies' continuing credit market losses and the flagging economy wiping out investors' appetite for stocks. While the market has seen a number of up days during the quarter, overall the first-quarter trend was sharply lower.

Investors also examined a government plan to overhaul the way Wall Street is regulated. Wall Street appeared unmoved by a speech from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on the plan to reorganize oversight of Wall Street; details of the 218-page plan have been widely reported in recent days. It would give the Federal Reserve increased power to protect the stability of the entire financial system while merging day-to-day supervision of banks into one agency, down from five under the existing system.

Scott Wren, senior equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons, said Monday's trading showed investors were generally awaiting economic data due this week on the manufacturing and service sectors as well as employment. Investors are prepared for weak economic data, he said, but could become unnerved if there is unwelcome corporate news.

"The market is already pricing in a ton of bad economic news. Bad economic news is not going to drive the market. What's going to drive the market is headline news," he said.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 46.49, or 0.38 percent, to 12,262.89.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 7.48, or 0.57 percent, to 1,322.70, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 17.92, or 0.79 percent, to 2,279.10.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.58 billion shares compared with 1.35 billion shares traded Friday.

The dollar rose against several other major currencies, easing pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. Light, sweet crude fell $4.04 to settle at $101.58 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gold fell $14.40 to finish at $916.20 an ounce on the Nymex.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.41 percent from 3.45 percent late Friday.

Merck & Co. fell $6.56, or 15 percent, to $37.95 and Schering-Plough Inc. declined $5.06, or 26 percent, to $15.41 after medical researchers said the companies' joint cholesterol drug, Vytorin, failed to improve heart disease. The researchers' findings, published by the New England Journal of Medicine, urged a return to more established treatments for cholesterol. Merck is one of the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow industrials and, as a result, dragged on the blue chips.

Citigroup Inc. rose 59 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $21.42 after announcing plans to split its consumer banking unit from its credit card business as part of a broader reorganization to cut costs and simplify the large financial institution's structure. The company suffered billions of dollars in losses from investments in poor-quality mortgages.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 4.79, or 0.70 percent, to 687.97.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 2.30 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.16 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 0.28 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.24 percent.

 

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发表于 2008-3-31 04:54 PM | 显示全部楼层

If it is a down quarter ....

What if it is down quatrer, will MMs try to pump up on the last day so that they are seen to have less losses?
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发表于 2008-3-31 05:29 PM | 显示全部楼层

End vs. beginning of quarter and month

Dating back to 1960, there are 192 quarters and 578 months. Among them,

End of quarter: Up days 94 (48.96 %); Down days 97 (50.52 %); Even days: 1 (0.52 %)
Mean of Up days: 0.53 %; Mean of Down days: -0.52 %

Beginning of quarter: Up days 106 (55.21 %); Down days 86 (44.79 %); Even days: 0 (0.00 %)
Mean of Up days: 0.79 %; Mean of Down days: -0.74 %

End of Month: Up days 321 (55.54 %); Down days 256 (44.29 %); Even days: 1 (0.17 %)
Mean of Up days: 0.65 %; Mean of Down days: -0.57 %

Beginning of Month: Up days 325 (56.23 %); Down days 251 (43.43 %); Even days: 2 (0.35 %)
Mean of up days: 0.75 %; Mean of down days: -0.67 %

So according to historical data, the chance that tomorrow will be up is roughly 55:45. It somewhat corroborates the argument that money manager will invest the money they receive at the beginning of the month.




[ 本帖最后由 Quantum 于 2008-3-31 18:38 编辑 ]
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发表于 2008-3-31 05:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
德国有一种Sparplan, 按月购买股票的计划,每月1日固定投入一笔钱来买基金。理论上每个月的1日(或者2日?)有比较大的机会股市会涨。不知道统计数据有没有显示。
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发表于 2008-3-31 07:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
在美国也因为退休金帐户都在月底入账,MF或其他Fund在月初会有新的购买
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发表于 2008-4-1 02:24 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Quantum 于 2008-3-31 18:29 发表 Dating back to 1960, there are 192 quarters and 578 months. Among them,End of quarter: Up days 94 (48.96 %); Down days 97 (50.52 %); Even days: 1 (0.52 %)Mean of Up days: 0.53 %; Mean of Down days: -0 ...


顶! 月初应该会涨. 因为有钱了. ^_^
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发表于 2008-4-1 04:29 AM | 显示全部楼层
There are many instances of this kind of calendar arbitrage theory. Year end, Quater end, Month end, Weekend and DAY END
some famous one like if you sell short on Friday and buy back on the coming Monday even made to text book on financial market
But those things are really difficult for me, as a casual trader to really benefit from. Because you have to follow the plan strictly over a very long period of time in a consistant manner, if the plan indeed works.

I bet the next quater end, many of us will forget this window dressing thing, if the trend at that time is very clear or we have something else to talk about, like QZHY just started another 1000 thread and ZhuDe had to find one more part time job to buy more house to store more gold he is buying.
[ 本帖最后由 oldfrog 于 2008-4-1 05:38 编辑 ]
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