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本帖最后由 revolver 于 2010-10-5 13:17 编辑
2H&2S pattern formed between Feb and Jun signaled the downside target of 82, which has been basically met. Retest the neckline of 88.87 is expected. Huge falling wedge is the sign of exhausting momentum, which has been broken upside previously and now trend line also retested. The thick red line of 82.87 was the position where Kan government launched currency intervention one day after the election, it's now being retested and possibly forming a double bottom. If Japan government & central bank allow 82.87 to be taken out, it would prove the previous intervention a huge failure both financially and politically. I am expecting USDJPY to turn up from here toward 88.87.
US owes to China more than 2 trillion dollars, and another 1 trillion plus to Japan. China and Japan are in the same camp, they have to unite in the game against US, Diaoyu island is only a small issue. Diluting the real purchasing power of USD by printing is not acceptable, this will trigger the total currency war and the only outcome is that all governments losers with gold the only winner. Hence the comprise by resetting the exchange rates is essentially the only possible option. All governments understand this, the question is resetting by how much and for how long. And when they eventually agree on a deal, inevitably it will be the country with slowest 'growth' and deepest in debt depreciates its currency the most, which in the case being Japan/Yen; and the country with fastest 'growth' and most wealth appreciates its currency the most, which will be China/RMB. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-10-5 11:03 AM
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发表于 2010-10-5 11:25 AM