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发表于 2010-10-4 08:12 AM
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The Federal Reserve appears ready to deploy another round of policy easing. But data this week could spoil the launch party.
Investors have been drooling over the prospect of more "quantitative easing" since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at a whatever-it-takes approach to keeping the U.S. economy afloat in late August. After his Jackson Hole, Wyo., speech, the S&P 500 went on to gain nearly 9% last month, its best September since 1939.
Investors have been drooling over the prospect of more "quantitative easing" since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at a whatever-it-takes approach to keeping the U.S. economy afloat.
Indeed, 70% of institutional investors expect the Fed to officially announce plans to expand its balance sheet at its next policy meeting on Nov. 2-3, according to a Jefferies & Co. survey last week. New York Fed President William Dudley bolstered that view in a speech Friday.
But any such action right now is—as many policy makers have put it themselves—highly dependent on incoming economic data. There is already some opposition within the Fed, among those like Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. "The battle lines have certainly been drawn," says Pierpont Securities Chief Economist Stephen Stanley.
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The key test comes Friday, with the most important data release of the month: the September employment report. The report, showing the number of job gains or losses last month as well as the national unemployment rate, is likely to be pivotal. It is the last employment report before the midterm elections on Nov. 2. It is also the last before the Fed's next meeting.
The consensus among economists is that the unemployment rate will rise to 9.7% in September from 9.6% the month before. Meanwhile, the number of net new jobs created is expected to be zero following a decline of 54,000 in August. Such weak expectations, however, leave plenty of room for an upside surprise, particularly within private-sector job creation. Already, the pace of new unemployment claims has fallen in recent weeks, suggesting some improvement of labor-market conditions.
Typically, positive employment signals would be bullish for stocks. But to the degree they dim the near-term prospect of QE2, they may spook the market instead. A weak report, meanwhile, could fan fears that the Fed isn't being aggressive enough. September was a win-win for stocks. October could be a lose-lose. |
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发表于 2010-10-4 08:01 AM
