Rumored BDI will fall very shortly ...

爱在雨中

no comments.

dzyx

真是神算！今天真跌了/。

爱在雨中

真是神算！今天真跌了/。
dzyx 发表于 2010-9-14 00:13

客气了，不是我会算，是现货市场根本不听期货市场指挥，单靠大单买盘买出来的只是rebound，不可能持久。
现货市场已经安静好几天了，想甩船relet short period的candidates一堆一堆的，
这样的市场谁能相信keep strong？我想象力没有那么丰富。
等着再次暴跌吧，除非现货市场对未来充满信心，别忘了大量新船已经开始下水了。。。

dzyx

客气了，不是我会算，是现货市场根本不听期货市场指挥，单靠大单买盘买出来的只是rebound，不可能持久。 ...
爱在雨中 发表于 2010-9-14 04:52

    今天的Baltic Dry Index (BDI)    -36   2940

    新船对运费的影响早已经开始了。

Poo

今天的Baltic Dry Index (BDI)    -36   2940

    新船对运费的影响早已经开始了。
dzyx 发表于 2010-9-14 09:08

如果价格下降为什么最后一个图 Freight Expenditure 是往上的呢？

dzyx

如果价格下降为什么最后一个图 Freight Expenditure 是往上的呢？
Poo 发表于 2010-9-14 09:12

    下水的新船大多是集装箱。买船股要特别注意船公司的船型。

Overcapacity of Ships May Cut Container Rates
Joseph Bonney | Aug 25, 2010 8:35PM GMT

SeaAxis says oversupply of ships could derail carriers’ recovery
Container shipping lines have rebounded from a disastrous 2009, but their fortunes will “change quite dramatically” later this year as vessel capacity continues to rise, warns a new report from the research arm of container lessor SeaAxis.

“Shipping lines will probably enjoy another quarter of strong operational results but the oversupply situation coming up should translate into more difficult times at the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, Philippe Hoehlinger, vice president of corporate risk management at SeaAxis, wrote in a quarterly report on container shipping.

He said vessel capacity is expected to rise 16 percent this year and 13 percent in 2011, primarily due to carriers’ rapid reactivation of idled ships and the resumption of delivery of new ships ordered before the recession. Global container volume is expected to rise about 10 percent annually, SeaAxis said.

Poo

下水的新船大多是集装箱。买船股要特别注意船公司的船型。

Overcapacity of Ships May Cut Co ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-9-14 09:19

谢谢。也可能我们搞懂问题。
Freight Expenditure 指的是什么？我以为是运输费用。是我最终客户的运输费用，还是船公司自己的运输费用？

dzyx

谢谢。也可能我们搞懂问题。
Freight Expenditure 指的是什么？我以为是运输费用。是我最终客户的运输 ...
Poo 发表于 2010-9-14 09:28

CASS Freight Expenditures is a measure of U.S. shipping demand.

After an 8.6 percent month-to-month loss in July, U.S. shipping demand grew 8.3 percent sequentially in August. Shipments accelerated to a 16.5 percent year-over-year surge in August, far outpacing July's 8.9 percent gain over July 2009.

爱在雨中

下水的新船大多是集装箱。买船股要特别注意船公司的船型。

Overcapacity of Ships May Cut Co ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-9-14 09:19

进入九月后，各大集装箱船公司对未来十月份出运的大宗集装箱货物开始表现浓厚的兴趣，与此前持续爆仓几个月中的反应截然不同。
中国北方港口拟十月份出运的重货（>22吨/TEU）每航次出运100TEU，此前很难得到仓位，
而目前与船公司商讨物流出运不仅仓位得到口头承诺，更可以商讨优惠运费。

sooners

回复 9# 爱在雨中


    thanks

Poo

CASS Freight Expenditures is a measure of U.S. shipping demand.

After an 8.6 percent month- ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-9-14 09:36

谢谢解释！

dzyx

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)    -100   2840