08/26/2010 大盘回顾 （Will the 4th time be different?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down, I hold both short and long overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26, 9/10 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH

See 08/20 Market Recap and 08/24 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: UP TOMORROW, BUT DOWN THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK?

 

今天没有什么铁证，只有两个speculation，当笑话看看好啦。

 

昨天说了，08/25是不是bottom，要看今天有没有follow-through，可惜今天没有。那么是不是就肯定08/25不是bottom呢。下面的图是最近bottom的pattern（谢谢google同志提醒！），bullish reversal day followed by Dark Cloud Cover，第三天，也就是明天，似乎都是高开高走。问题是第四次会不会不一样？Anyway，短期是否见底了，还要看明天，这个应该没有异议吧？

 

 

下面这个图，我在08/20 Market Recap里提到，本周如果red，那要小心本年度的第一个4 consecutive down weeks，换句话说，本周red，那么下周很可能也red。目前看，除非明天出现奇迹，否则本周是red的可能性很大。

 

 

6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch是下周可能red的一道保险，因为似乎最近每个月的最后一周bearish的几率比较高（Stockcharts是把下周算成八月的最后一个交易周的，不是九月的第一个交易周）。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	SELL
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	UP	BUY
GDX	UP	BUY	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

dreampen

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dreampen

also sofa

dreampen

still  sofa

zhyuan04

英雄所见略同，我也注意到了这个bottom pattern：bullish reversal day followed by Dark Cloud Cover。

回复 1# Cobra

H@T

mikeqc

1 page

在水一方

沙发

draguide

http://blog.hutong9.net/space.ph ... o=blog&id=29180如有雷同纯属巧合：

catbear

a huge safa which can sit 500 people.

福多多

前三次都好象是在每周开始时出现，现在是周五，情况不同了。

IMeMyself

first page

dreampen

everest001

aveda

top枪

学习

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

maomi

t-k

COS