08/11/2010 大盘回顾 （The Sell Off May Not Last Long）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down, I hold partial short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/11,8/13,8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/06 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH *6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, bottomed? BEARISH

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L 07/30 low

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE SELL OFF MAY NOT LAST LONG

 

Market是不是要去test 07/01 low，现在还无法知道，唯一比较确定的是2到4天内多半会有tradable bottom。理由是6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch。这个图既使是在2008 crash的时候也工作，因此有理由相信，这次还会工作。

 

 

下面的图是从另一个角度推算pullback的时间，自04/26以来的pullback历时3到8 trading day。到08/17 Turnaround Tuesday，是6 trading day，且正好是Fib 23.6% from 07/01 to 08/09 – a potential time resistance。这个也符合上面提到的2到4天内会有tradable bottom的说法。至于price target，1056 to 1060 Fib confluences area看起来最有嫌疑。

 

 

下面的图for fun only，今天非常特别的地方是SPY down more than 2%，但ISEE Equities Only Index却大于200，表示散户buy dip很开心（2个CALL才有1个PUT）。这种情况，自2004年以来总共只有2次。 之所以show这个统计，是因为看起来正好也符合上面的pullback won’t last long的说法(for the 1st leg)。并且也演示了我今天After Bell Quick Summary里提到的2 leg down是个啥样子。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP	4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): 2 black bars in a row, doesn’t look good.
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

胡同儿串子

hahaha, sf again!

kruger

shafa！！！回复 1# Cobra

kruger

oh， man！！！！

can2000

thanks

everest001

胡同儿串子

回复 3# kruger

hehe, 网速不行吧，光纤就是不一样

NewMember

thanks!

chickencoop

DayDayUp

Jinan90

Thanks. Although a bloody day for me.

oda

thanks

threepagodas

thanks

happyface

thanks

catour

thanks

jingriver

first page

胡同儿串子

看后再顶！严重期待中“2到4天内会有tradable bottom”

n748

回复 1# Cobra


    ding first, read second

actionverte

Thanks a lot

acoust

First page,