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大低开，跳出昨天的range，按理这个空可能不补，不过今天很特殊，是过山车庆祝日，所以no diea，这是最近第四次较大幅度的低开了，如果又拉起，那，嗯，无话可说。下面是一点点小统计：Yesterday, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) closed at a one-month high with a one-month low in volume, something that hasn't been a good sign in the past. When that's happened before, it suffered a lower close within a week 85% of the time (47 out of 55 occurrences). There were 6 that happened in August, and all 6 had a lower close within 2 days. There were 3 that occurred the day before a FOMC decision, none of which led to any kind of runaway upside (11/15/99, 8/21/00 and 11/5/02). Surely, a big reason for the exceptionally low volume yesterday was the pending FOMC interest rate decision this afternoon, and we're already seeing some weakness ahead of it. Interestingly, there have only been 6 times that the S&P 500 futures gapped down at least -0.5% on the morning of a scheduled FOMC decision, as they are indicated to do this morning. All 6 times, it marked a short-term low. Three days later, the S&P was positive, averaging a return of +3.2% (the dates were 6/26/02, 8/13/02, 9/24/02, 1/29/03, 9/16/08 and 3/18/09) .
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-8-10 06:59 AM
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发表于 2010-8-10 07:00 AM
