07/26/2010 大盘回顾 （Overbought）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 3 of 5 are OVERBOUGHT Long on 07/23, hold partial overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/27 07/25 / 07/23 07/26, 07/31, 08/02 Next pivot date: 07/26 – 08/03

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. 0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Overbought. *T2122 overbought.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L Breakeven

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF RECENT MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 07/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE 2ND LEG DOWN COULD START WITHIN THIS WEEK

Key week this week, as multiple pivot dates are due this week until 08/03. The market may turn down on any of those pivot dates to at least test the 07/01 low. However if the market simply keeps rising during this time window, then most likely the same March 2010 mad cow is back. See 07/23 Market Recap for more details. 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

 

Market overbought了。我知道很多人会说overbought could be more overbought，不过，各位可以查查我过去的纪录，看看我用overbought作标题的时候，一两天内market都发生了什么？因为我看overbought的signal不是一般的signal，只有在非常非常extreme的情况下，我才会用overbought这个标题。

 

在07/23 Market Recap里，我谈到了price and time target，见下图，今天the initial price and time target都met了。

 

 

从price pattern看，1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，是个非常明显的Bearish Rising Wedge 。

 

 

以上，换句话说，就是time, price, price pattern, indicator都met，因此理论上，短期pullback的可能非常大。至于，这个pullback，如果真有的话，是不是我一直唠叨的the 2nd leg down呢？我认为多半不是。不过今天先不讨论这个，等pullback发生了再说吧，别我泡沫横飞地说了一大通，结果market根本就没有pullback，那岂不是我很没面子哈。

 

下面是今天所有的overbought signal。Again各位可以看到都不是传统的看overbought/oversold的indicator。

 

NYADV MA(5)，这个图是上面我说pullback如果有的话，可能仅仅是短期pullback的主要理由，多半pullback以后还会有new recovery high。

 

 

NYMO.

 

 

T2122.

 

 

Intraday Cumulative Tick from sentimentrader，这是第13个WOW，除了最近的the 12th WOW还没有足够的时间发生作用以外，前面11个WOW以后都有较大幅度的下跌。 The previous 12 WOWs were in 07/22 Market Recap, 07/13 Market Recap, 06/30 Market Recap, 06/25 Market Recap, 06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap.

 

 

T2112. 这个图是NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40)，当然还不是很extreme，不过今天这个reading在2009年以前已经是record high了，所以值得关注。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP

X中国陆军

X中国陆军

impresario100

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

vicvic

happyface

thanks a lot

jilier

Bencat

wait for pullback and buy dip!  

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks.

rosyrosy

胡同儿串子

everest001

Thanks!

Summerrose

Thanks.

oda

Ave

dreampen

t-k

hhli3

zippo

Ding first, then read.  Thx.