07/19/2010 大盘回顾 （Option traders are very very bullish）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL The trend is still down, but I hold no short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/24, 07/27 07/26 / 07/23 07/29, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/27 – 07/31

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, bottomed? BEARISH 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model *Long if up day tomorrow. The stop loss will be 1.9 x ATR(10).

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JULY EXPIRATION, DOW DOWN 7 OF LAST 11

See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE 2ND LEG DOWN COULD HAVE STARTED

See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: CPC AND VIX ARE VERY BULLISH

 

该说的，我在07/16 Market Recap里已经说了，既使看大牛，目前的调整时间也不够，mini mini correction time也是要到08/02，因此很可能还有2nd leg down。现在唯一不sure的是the 2nd leg down has started or not？从今天的CPC closed at 0.72来看，option traders非常非常牛，这是否意味着07/01以来的反弹还没有结束？I have no idea，看明天吧。

 

为什么说CPC closed at 0.72是非常非常牛的表现？因为这个数值触发了过去一个叫做Firework的东东，这个东东在08年大熊市的时候工作的很好。再次建议大家花点时间了解一下the History of the Firework trading setup。那么，现在这个firework还工不工作呢？我不知道，反正最近的一次是06/28，第二天大盘跌得很惨。

 

 

除了CPC很牛以外，VIX和SPX的divergence继续存在。下面的图，讲过很多次了，就不重复了。另外，单从0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)看，2 reversal bars in a row，VIX看着也是要跌的样子，因此也是说牛。

 

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这个有必要提一下，由于今天option traders很牛，因此trend line failed to hold，可能意味着top signal not confirmed。我不sure，因为过去也有trend line fail to hold但是signal还是准确的例子。

 

 

总结一下，就是今天blah blah一大堆，其实是说，in short-term I have no idea，大盘好像并不像想象的那样bearish。看明天吧。

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN	4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.79.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	*DOWN	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	*DOWN
OIL	DOWN	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $27.35.

usamonkey

haha safa

hillcrest

thanks Cobra!

t-k

xiaochong

BD?

emichael

sofa, thanks

Paul

1st page?

Poo

thanks

belmonthill

Thanks....

mikeqc

first page

navybean

Thanks

happyface

thanks a lot

Fan8an

thanks

leftright

top枪

学习。

胡同儿串子

大盘好像并不像想象的那样bearish

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

everest001

Thanks!

yanjun

源济