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[原创] 技术分析还真不用码这么多字

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发表于 2010-7-1 07:36 PM |显示全部楼层


本帖最后由 老顽童 于 2010-7-1 23:26 编辑

就着福布斯有关AONE技术分析,瞎掰于字里行间,属于自言自语,说者无心哈。
一句话,对于有故事的股票(这是必要条件)如AONE,俺更注重缩量和放量的位置,以及量变(很可能就是质变)以后的价位行为。
一旦确认“底部”筑仓痕迹,放胆跟进。
如果大盘条件不好,正好提供摆地铺的机会。
个人以为,横的线线比斜的线线更有说服力。
胡言乱语,欢迎拍砖。

Watching AONE For A Bottom
July 1, 2010 - 4:09 pm
Quint Tatro is President and Owner of Tatro Capital, LLC.

Environmentally friendly. Green technology. Buzzwords are thrown around everyday in an attempt to categorize and capitalize on new innovations coming to market. With the IPO of Tesla Motors (TSLA) earlier this week gaining much adoration, lithium-ion battery maker A123 Systems (AONE) came back on the screens of many traders. I have been watching AONE since its IPO in September 2009(似乎在表白资格,呵呵), waiting for a decent entry from which to deploy capital. Let’s take a closer look and see if the time is ripe to consider AONE.

A few disclaimers and caveats before I continue. We are currently in the midst of a correction of fairly serious proportions. Never, ever buy a stock with the intentions of trying to catch the bottom bounce. Allow the underlying chart to set up into a viable, tight pattern where a prudent entry can be ascertained. For my particular style of trading, I look for very tight coiling patterns that then explode from congestion. By looking for pricing areas that have consolidated, I am able to put tighter stops and get out of a position with a small loss should it run against me. Calculating risk is a combination of several factors, and traders must understand their risk at all times. That is a discussion for another article. (废话)

For those not familiar with A123 Systems, a quick primer is in order. AONE makes rechargeable lithium-ion batteries to be primarily used in transportation, electric grid and the consumer markets. The big push for AONE is the potential for using its technology in hybrid electric and electric cars as the cars start to be mass produced. Founded in 2001, AONE is not even close to turning a profit at this stage of the game, so any long side play of AONE is based purely on the technical read of the charts, and nothing more.(废话)

The above chart is AONE from its IPO until today. AONE had a quick jump out of the gate, running from $18.00 to $28.00 in a matter of days. Since that time, AONE has been stuck in a downtrend, hitting a low of $7.50 on June 10th. In early 2010, I watched AONE to see if it would form what is known as the IPO double bottom. Many times new issues will run higher in the first few days after the IPO to only pullback a couple of times to form a double bottom. This process may take weeks or many months to form, but can be a profitable pattern to play. However, in the case of AONE, the pattern never transpired as AONE continued to fall with the general malaise of the overall market.(废话)

From the start of the year, AONE has made lower highs and lower lows in a very systematic, stair step manner. I have marked those pivot points along the way, allowing a trader to visually see that AONE has been in a clear and steady trend for all of 2010. At this point, what traders should be looking for are signs of a change in character (第一句有用的话). There are three big signs that traders will want to focus on that will indicate that AONE is ready to begin an up leg of a sustained nature.

First, watch for AONE to enter a basing phase. There will be some stocks that bounce sharply in what is known as a V-shaped reversal, but these are very tough to game. An easier and much more sustainable pattern is where a stock goes sideways (加一分)for several weeks or months at a time right around the lowest support levels.

In the case of AONE, traders should watch for a basing pattern between $7.50 and $10.00. AONE has been in this range for five weeks now and has a good jump on prices basing in this area. If AONE were to take out the low of $7.50, I would then reset(加一分) my parameters for what is a viable base.  There is no set standard for what would be considered a long enough base, but in my opinion the longer the better(但是一定要有故事,参与没有故事的long base多半是没有好结果的). It allows traders to become bored and impatient with a name, and that is a sign that fresh money has an opportunity to take it higher.

The second sign traders want to see is AONE reversing the lower lows and lower highs. At first this might seem like common sense, but I can’t tell you the number of traders I talk to who try to time bottoms and end up getting their heads ripped off. In the case of AONE, the May 27th high was $9.75. On June 28th, AONE hit $10.05 which would be a signal to traders that the tide may be turning. Hitting this new intermediate term high is only the first step in the process and is not a trader’s signal to go long. More likely than not, AONE will pull back into the base pattern again. Traders should watch to see if AONE respects the $7.50 level and makes a pivot higher than that low water mark. The potential entry into AONE would come once that higher low is formed and the last pivot high of $10.05 is taken out(不谈交易量,只讲价位的变化,如果不是故意遗漏,就是道行还差着).

The final big road marker that will indicate AONE is potentially ready to move higher is when it crosses and stays above a key moving average. The 50 day moving average is a primary indicator followed by almost all traders, and as such will be a tell tale sign of broader support. The corollary to closing above the 50 day moving average is to watch when the moving average starts trending up. In my book, this is a lagging indicator, and as such is only used as confirmation of a position that I am already in. In this specific case, once the 50 day flattens out and starts moving higher AONE could already be 30-50% higher. Nonetheless, a close above the moving average from here should be treated as a positive by traders. (人为的所谓50天,200天或者任何均线都有刻舟求剑的嫌疑)

So there you have it. Use the three steps above when watching AONE or any other trending stock poised for a turnaround.  By insisting on these three key events first, traders will find that their trading is less haphazard and prone to be regulated by emotions. When specific, technical events are put in place, there is no arguing as to their merits.  Either an event has happened and is giving the “all clear”, or it has not. The firmer your trading strategy becomes, the better chance you have of weathering turbulence such as we are currently experiencing.

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发表于 2010-7-1 07:48 PM |显示全部楼层
Thanks. I have some
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发表于 2010-7-1 07:54 PM |显示全部楼层
aone 今天破了上升趋势线,收在趋势线以下,还是要注意一下
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发表于 2010-7-1 08:28 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-7-1 08:37 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-7-1 08:53 PM |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-7-1 09:47 PM |显示全部楼层
"横的线线比斜的线线更有说服力", 这是精华。
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发表于 2010-7-1 09:50 PM |显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2010-7-2 08:00 AM |显示全部楼层
底也不是一天就做出来的,watching真是一个重点词,呵呵。
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发表于 2010-7-2 01:11 PM |显示全部楼层
qqqq在往上拉.........
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发表于 2010-7-2 01:12 PM |显示全部楼层
今天量很低,卖盘消逝
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发表于 2010-7-2 01:13 PM |显示全部楼层
tnnd, 灌水搞错地方了
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