06/18/2010 大盘回顾 （3 Reversal Like Bars in a Row）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION *07/07-07/11 06/26 / 06/21 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/24?

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. *0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Bottomed? BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP)   N/A *Covered position entered on 05/11 with gain. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   *2 reversal like bars testing MA(50), doesn’t look good. IWM DOWN   Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. *3 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP   *ChiOsc is too high. CANADA UP   1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. *1.5.0 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Daily): 2 reversal like bars, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   EURO DOWN   *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means UUP to rebound? GOLD UP BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *3.2.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): Ascending Triangle, target $129.97. GDX UP BUY *4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. OIL UP   ENERGY UP BUY FINANCIALS DOWN BUY REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN   2 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WAS BEARISH

 

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 10 in a row and 17 of last 19.

 

下面的图来自sentimentrader，看起来下周对于SPX来说是6月份最bearish的一周。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

See 06/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE LITTLE BEARISH TOWARD NEXT WEEK

 

The bottom line, the trend is up but I’m a little little little bearish biased toward the next week. 理由除了seasonality session above提到的下周统计上比较熊熊友好以外，还有两个理由：

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，空心红棒棒加实心黑棒棒加实心黑棒棒，看着不好。

 

 

下面是自2000年以来对于SPY连续出现三个空心红棒棒加实心黑棒棒(doesn’t matter whichever comes first)的统计，一共有7个cases，其中1个，直接飞到天上去了，2个盘整以后飞到天上去，4个至少都是短期top。嗯，没有我最初想象的那么熊，但至少周五收盘前跟着队长干了对不起人民对不起党的事的熊熊，下周只要运气不是太坏(1 out of 7)，应该有机会全身而退。

 

 

另一个不看好下周的理由是Weekly VIX 2周内下跌超过25%，自2000年起，一共有10个类似的case，其中有7个red next week (red dashed lines)，并且有7个cases either是短期顶部or离短期顶部just a week or 2 away。

 

 

0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，2个黑棒棒受阻于MA(50)，看起来也不是很好，不过很难量化这样的case，所以有兴趣地可以自己研究，图在8.2.9a QQQQ – 2000 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010，看看rebound from low to test MA(50)有多大的几率一次就冲过。

 

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，这个注意一下，周一如果大涨特涨，熊熊不用惊慌，因为很可能VIX to VXV ratio record low了，这种情况下，我不认为大盘能走多远。

 

 

shatianyou

sf

dividend_growth

板凳

shatianyou

真是沙发！

shatianyou

第一次呀！

feng

feng

sha fa!!!

feng

FT

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks, Cobra!

hhli3

snowball2009

回复 1# Cobra


    Many thanks!

skipjack

thanks

oda

谢谢老大

开小差

thx, ding

songjiang

老大辛苦啦，多谢

COS

福多多

quickcow

ranchgirl

Thanks!

cartier