06/02/2010 大盘回顾 （Could see more back and forth ahead）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode MOON PHASE SOLAR TERM DATE GANN DAY CYCLE 06/12 New Moon 06/06 06/05-06/07, 06/11-06/14 Week of 06/04, 07/31, 08/20-08/23

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed?  6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model Last trade: Shorted at 05/06 close, covered at 05/21 close with gains. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. Others     OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN IWM DOWN *SELL CHINA DOWN EMERGING DOWN BUY EUROPEAN DOWN BUY 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN SELL BOND UP   EURO DOWN GOLD UP *SELL 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP *SELL OIL DOWN ENERGY DOWN SELL FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS DOWN *SELL MATERIALS DOWN SELL

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEK IS BULLISH BUT JUNE HAS BEEN THE 2ND WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS

See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTAIN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, II SURVEY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND AHEAD

Maintain the intermediate-term target around 1008 to 1019 (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details) but since II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction, so if the past II survey pattern repeats again this time, it’s possible that we might see huge rebound, even new high before the real correction kicks in. See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT MORE BACK AND FORTH AHEAD

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，典型的企图break though long term MMA (pink)的back and forth阶段，所以大家看到大盘涨一天跌一天。

 

 

类似的情景可以参见今年二月，同样也是back and forth before break through on the upside。

 

 

所以呢，这种涨一天跌一天的情况并不bearish，表示牛熊双方进入了相持阶段，而这种相持的局面，最终是要结束的，either resolve up or down。那么，最后是上还是下呢？我只能说：

1. 至少牛牛is trying，所以总比没有trying有希望。
2. Table above里那么多bottom信号，因此信号牛牛friendly。
3. 可能这种back and forth还要持续一段时间。

为什么说“可能这种back and forth还要持续一段时间”呢？两个理由：

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，big WOW，Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK is way too high，前七次提到这个是在05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap，此后都发生了一定程度的回调。

 

 

今天还有个特殊的地方，就是A Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume Ratio >= 9) right after a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume Ratio >= 9)，下面是所有过去的cases。可以看到无一例外，第二天都跌了，此后既使有大反弹，但是今天的low最终会被retest的。

 

coppereye

源济

板凳！

源济

地板！

源济

fead

ding!

fead

safa! fist time!

hhli3

回复 1# Cobra


   

tonghu

:lol

southware

又一次坐上蛇皮沙发

southware

开小差

thx, ding

southware

原来没有坐上蛇皮沙发呀

coppereye

原来没有坐上蛇皮沙发呀
southware 发表于 2010-6-2 20:44

    俺是沙发专业户 :(13):

soulvirus

thx

X中国陆军

navybean

Thanks.

babyruth

icedric

支持!

sexydaytrader

But the difference with Feb was the SPY was above the 200MA, but not this time.

Want to say thank you for all these work for the rest of us.