04/08/2010 大盘回顾 （Extremes Went Further Extreme）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 16 unfilled gaps. (max was 17) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) *0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. 04/05 Market Recap: Too much call buying.  8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too low. 04/06 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 04/06 Market Recap: Too many bearish extreme signals at sentimentrader. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: A little bit too high. *04/08 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score at sentimentrader is too high. CONCLUSION So far no bearish signals worked but they are simply too many, so I won’t attempt any short until the next NYMO Sell setup is triggered. Still hold the SPY ST Model long position, but no more long will be added.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/26 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     *Short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, for aggressive traders only. 04/08: the setup wasn’t confirmed but still valid, needs a confirmation tomorrow. Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP     CHINA ?     EMERGING UP     CANADA UP   4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. BOND DOWN   *Black bar, could pullback. DOLLAR UP   Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. GOLD UP   GDX UP   Breakout of an Ascending Triangle, target $54.2. OIL UP *good buy? *Hollow red bar, could rebound. ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS UP   REITS UP *Breakout then pullback and held the breakout point, looks good. MATERIALS UP   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP COULD BE AROUND 04/11 TO 04/15

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了明天可能收绿（新高的可能更大些），不过由于bearish extremes实在太多了，因此我不认为明天会大涨。这样大盘就可能盘整到下周，而下周从04/11到04/15都是非常重要的时间窗口，因此不排除下周是cycle top的可能。我知道，我一直在改cycle top，从03/09已经改到04/12了，这确实是cycle analysis不足的地方，在一个重要的时间点如果没有发生预期的反转，那就可能会延迟到下一个时间点，而这个下一个时间点，目前就是我说的from 04/11 to 04/15。看看这回有没有用吧。

 

04/11, 04/14, 04/15都有multiple Gann Day重合。

 

 

04/12是2002 low to 2007 high 5 year cycle的50%，因此是重要的time resistance。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH EXTREMES WENT FURTHER EXTREME

 

没新鲜的，04/06 Market Recap提到的sentimentrader两个重要的indicator，Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence以及Indicators at Extremes今天更加extreme了。另外Intermediate-term Indicator Score，就是所有intermediate-term indicators的综合，今天也非常extreme了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

live111

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