the beauty of trend following

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-7 02:02 PM

In bull market, what you often see is a constant calling for market tops; In bear market, you see the opposite.

In trend following, what you do is to make objective judgement on the current market conditions and ask yourself a question: are the major indexes acting poorly? are the leading growth stocks under severe distribution? If your question to both is no, then you sit tight with your winners.

In trend following, we don't care what the market will do tomorrow. We make no predictions and we do NOT anticipate.

Do we make projections on how high the market will go? I don't, maybe some do. Do we make projection on how much a leading growth stock will rise? yes, I do PE expansion to get me a rough idea what price a growth stock could reach in this bull run.

do we have a bull market as of today? yes. Do I care what the market will do tomorrow? I DON'T

trueself · 发表于 2010-4-7 02:31 PM

赞！

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-7 03:29 PM

Bad close on high vol is never good, still calling for tops is foolish at this moment.

flyingdust · 发表于 2010-4-7 03:57 PM

Best post ever in HT! Ding!

lwjnbtx · 发表于 2010-4-7 04:48 PM

Thanks!

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-8 03:06 PM

This market looks solid, my stocks are telling to hold ...

abaqus · 发表于 2010-4-8 04:44 PM

本帖最后由 abaqus 于 2010-4-8 17:45 编辑

NND

A really GOOD one! You have all my HT money now..

Thanks!

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-9 04:03 PM

Top gainers after March 1st follow through,

DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
AAPL 11% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
GMCR 14% (02Mar2010)
PCLN 9% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
GIL 7% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
BIDU 4% (piot buy 01Apr2010)
CISG 4% (first buy 23Mar2010)

It is not difficult to buy breakout in bull markets, what is the most difficult is to hold the winners to let them run their course.

There will be scare days, normal pull backs in the days ahead. The idea is not to be shaken out during these days. The utter most benefit of the doubt should be given to the growth leaders to allow them to rise to maximize the profits.

shenhai · 发表于 2010-4-10 05:08 PM

Let's see what happen in the Q1 ERs

wyemlyy · 发表于 2010-4-10 07:13 PM

不CARE的话什么时候卖呢？

In bull market, what you often see is a constant calling for market tops; In bear market, you see th ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-4-7 15:02

Diffusion · 发表于 2010-4-10 08:03 PM

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-13 03:37 PM

There is nothing to update other than this market is in full bull mode.

Would you hold all your winners?

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-14 03:02 PM

nice market ...

btw, don't sell AAPL until it is 300 ... I have a ton ... !!!

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-15 01:44 PM

now do u understand what is called trend following?

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-16 03:56 PM

This looks like a normal pull back to me ...at least by the evidence presented as of now ...

There is no reason to sell aapl, bidu, gmcr, pcln etc

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-19 05:47 PM

A few development,

1. very bearish break down in Chinese market. Look at SSEC; The breakdown of some Chinese ADRs are the precursors to that ugly breakdown. If you look at TSTC, CAGC, CAAS, you can almost feel something bad is about to happen to chinese market.

2. Some leading growth stocks are acting iffy, although they have not broken down ... look at actions on GMCR and PCLN. There is nothing wrong with AAPL though.

In view of this, it is prudent to raise some cash, at least to get rid of margins.

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-21 01:56 PM

market consolidation is a good thing unless it flashes significant topping signals ...

in each bull market ... there are usually several 3-5% normal (sometimes sharp) pull backs ... when your stocks (such as AAPL or BIDU) are not showing signs of significant top ... there is nothing to worry about ...

Wall Street SMALL fishes tend to think the big gains are made by buying/shorting every market fluctuations ... they NEVER understand the big money is made by SITTING not TRADING ..

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-22 01:56 AM

本帖最后由 angelafund 于 2010-4-22 02:58 编辑

Top gainers as of today

AAPL 18% (05Mar2010 1st buy, 23/Mar2010 add)
DNDN 17% (03Mar2010)
GIL 13% (05Mar2010 1st buy)
PCLN 8% (pilot buy 18Feb2010, 01Mar2010 1st buy)
TPX 6% (21Apr2010)
BIDU 5% (pilot buy 01Apr2010)

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-22 01:46 PM

do i have to say it again we are in a bull market?

angelafund · 发表于 2010-4-22 02:59 PM

Excellent excellent market close!!! great follow through on AAPL and TPX

Stay away from top calling ... ride the trend. Lock the gain once the trend is over ... until then ... sit tight with your AAPL ...

do i need to list all my top gainers again?

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