04/05/2010 大盘回顾 （Simply Too Much Call Buying）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $119.42. *1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min): Ascending Triangle breakout, target $119.96. BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 17 unfilled gaps. (max was 17) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. *1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. *04/05 Market Recap: Too much call buying. CONCLUSION *So far no bearish signals worked but they are simply too many, so I won’t attempt any short until the next NYMO Sell setup is triggered. Still hold the SPY ST Model long position, but no more long will be added either.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/22 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high *Stopped out of short position with loss. Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs TREND MACD COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. When TREND is up, use MACD buy, when TREND is down, use MACD sell. QQQQ UP SELL 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP SELL   CHINA ? BUY Sorry my mistake, Symmetrical Triangle on 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly) not breakout yet, so intermediate-term trend still is not clear. EMERGING UP BUY   CANADA UP SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. BOND DOWN SELL DOLLAR UP SELL Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. *Could be a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $23.94. GOLD *? BUY GDX *? BUY OIL UP BUY   ENERGY *UP BUY FINANCIALS UP BUY REITS UP SELL MATERIALS *UP BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12

See 04/01 Market Recap, originally I thought the market could be topped around 04/01 then pullback to around 04/12. I’ll give another day or two for this cycle to work out but looks like it could be wrong AGAIN. There’s another cycle due tomorrow morning, looks like a top, see 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min) below.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: SIMPLY TOO MUCH CALL BUYING

 

今天比较特别的地方是ISEE Equities Only Index closed at 276（就是说call to put ratio is 2.76），这是历史第3高。下面的图是过去所有ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 260的纪录（红线是所有高于270的记录）。

 

 

下面的图来自sentimentrader，也是说同样的事情，large traders call buying 仅次于2000年的record high了。

 

 

现在的market已经没啥好说的了，我能做的就是天天往上面的table里放top signals，总有一天他们会工作，问题是啥时候？所以目前是short危险，long也危险。有long的，如果利润丰厚，那就设好stop loss，随便market涨吧。没有long的或者too much short的，老实说，我也不知道该怎么办比较好了。1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，可能是个Ascending Triangle breakout，target再次指向above $119(see table above, so far all three patterns point to SPX 1200ish)。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

Poo

first time safa

Poo

Poo

I guess every one is dinner time

Poo

wow this is really bad, where is every one

all bear die?! OMG

Poo

and all bulls are party and got drunk?!

Poo

4/01 cycle time has passed we are in the middle of 4/1 and 4/12, so is this mean this cycle is up cycle?

xiaoyaoxl

先顶后看

第8层地下室也不错...

Poo

I can't take the whole first page, this will be very bad for the bull tomorrow
I gurantee

Poo

do not forget that I need to have 15 second between the post

胡同儿串子

first page

happyface

谢谢老大.

萧秋水

Cobra 辛苦了!多谢!

t-k

atrader

thanks

rosyrosy

柴禾

xiaoyaoxl

对了，今天spy volume是今年最低值

Poo

严肃的说：
this is very interest chart. why all people are crazy at this moment? is HT really the only bear cave?!! I do not believe it

COS