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---这是转帖。---
看到秋之皓月到处贴广告， 吹牛骗人，诱骗无知的青蛙掏钱加入他的blog, 就替这些
青蛙担心。 想看看漂亮光环下真实的“秋之皓月“？ 那看看他现在付费会员的血泪。
随便拷了些秋之皓月blog上过去几天的帖子，都是原文。还不包括那些被秋之皓月过
滤和删掉的帖子。
总之：
1．过去一个半月内秋之皓月blog上跟随秋之皓月计划的青蛙， 几十个都已被wiped
out. 更多的青蛙的账号都缩水80%-90%，痛苦都和着血泪往肚里咽。 不信？ 那自己读
读下面的帖子。
2．对秋之皓月的评价就一个字，low. 道指12700时blog上大喊是底，让青蛙们90%
call, no hedge. 到了mit, hutong, 168版上吹嘘自己的1000+喊底就变成了12265。类
似的列子多如牛毛。不信？ 那自己读读下面的帖子。
3． 秋之皓月的pick十个有九个都是输的，而且都至少输70%以上，如果不average
down的话。秋之皓月会到处吹嘘那一个赢的，假装其它九个从来都没有过。我严格按他
的进点跟的8个都输了，平均75% loss.
4． 过去一个半月所有的预测都和市场相反。道指11500大底时让青蛙们load 80% put,
一路average down到道指12700见顶时又让青蛙们close all put and load 90% call。
一路average down到道指13xx。 青蛙们的惨烈可想而知。不信？ 那自己读读下面的
帖子。
5．一个半月内，秋之皓月每天对付错误判断的策略和口号仅是‘average down’, ‘
turn off your computer and do not look at your account’, ‘fear? You frog!
’ 不信？ 那自己读读下面的帖子。
6．利用无知的青蛙接自己的包袱。欺骗青蛙的信任。
下面是青蛙们的贴：
qiqiapr said...
sofa
不停的修正，总是可以得到对你有利的结论
三月当然还有足够的时间play out
但是二月oe已经结束了，你当初二月oe加速上涨的瞎话也证明错了，但这个会被你选择
性忘掉，就想你其他数不清的预言一样
三月底的时候，希望不是你再次选择失忆的时候, ok, 老秋？
谢谢你辛勤工作
February 22, 2008 1:27 PM
happy life said...
其实，老邱错了，我并不怪他，但我很想看到一个有道德的人在指导我们玩option,而
不是一个到处骗人的人.(look at what he said on other BBSs, brag about how
good his picks are).错了，就认，你的图还是有用的，你还是刻苦的。但现在让我想
到，指导我炒股的是一个很low的人。。。。我心里不舒服。。。毕竟我们是带着崇拜
来的。。。这个偶像被发现如此不堪的时候。。是很不好受的。
February 22, 2008 9:06 AM
HJ said...
You still "佩服"??? Look how many people's account is less than 10% left.
Have to admit his trade (since Jan OE), is like gambling.
The worst thing he did here is misleading us to believe a big bull is coming
. He insist that we sold all the puts and only buy calls.
February 22, 2008 2:33 PM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 22, 2008 2:39 PM
yaoxy said...
既然收了钱，讲话就中肯些，负责任点，至少要对过去的不灵预言做些解释吧，而不是
一味鼓动青蛙们去做一些不符合自己实力的行为。才几个星 期，发现号称以你为风险
控制偶像的LD已经变成了疯狂的OPTION炒家，才几个星期，我们数年的积蓄已经损失过
半。真正体会股市让人疯狂这话。
February 22, 2008 3:18 PM
Kun Qu said...
人生呐~~~~~~~~~~
February 22, 2008 3:26 PM
halo3 said...
yes speechless. my account is down to 25%. how's everyone else doing?
February 22, 2008 7:18 AM
Watermark said...
My account down 50% already.
February 22, 2008 7:22 AM
Adai007 said...
You are not alone...me, Acc. <20%!!! I guess most frogs, if not all, holding
calls/put>=9, is actually wiped out...
----------------------------
halo3 said...
yes speechless. my account is down to 25%. how's everyone else doing?
February 22, 2008 7:24 AM
Kun Qu said...
my account is full of calls, you can imagin how much I could still left
February 22, 2008 7:27 AM
Adai007 said...
Just check AAPL -- 1 month...Move from 155-Now 119 (Jan.22-Feb.22)!!!! How
sad all of the frogs here, totally handle the boat towards the opposite way.
....
February 22, 2008 7:30 AM
ilvmm said...
will we see 117 today?!
February 22, 2008 7:31 AM
Peng said...
wake up, people! continue wishful thinking??
February 22, 2008 7:38 AM
sthmore said...
You are not alone, my account is less than 20%. Don't know if I need to
realize the loss, at least I can get that 20% back.
Sometimes I hope I'd rather not be here. Wish my bad mood won't disturb you.
Good luck my pals. Have a nice weekend.
February 22, 2008 7:42 AM
Adai007 said...
Peng, check the 1-month chart simply from your broker (Jan.22-Feb.22) AAPL:
155-119 NOW; GOOG: 584-504 Now......
No doubt these name will fly sometime later, but all of us die...
-----------------------------
Peng said...
wake up, people! continue wishful thinking??
February 22, 2008 7:44 AM
Yu said...
Qiu,
Please don't have wishful thinking. We paid to get your advice. It's fine if
the past was wrong, but the wishful thinking will finally kill all of us.
And that's the most terrible thing. I was asking the question yesterday if
no action is the best action. I kind of doubt it because the market
apparently lose the up momentum, if not slide down.
February 22, 2008 7:45 AM
qiqiapr said...
why Qiuyue say ".. we are still inside the triangle..."
还要不要脸阿这
February 22, 2008 8:00 AM
Peng said...
Lao Qiu wrote yesterday "Tomm… indices move into the apex of the triangle…
show time…" maybe we need to be more patient than "tomorrow"?
February 22, 2008 8:04 AM
HJ said...
AAPL没救了,我出了MAR 130 CALL with big loss.
February 22, 2008 8:07 AM
Peng said...
老秋就是输几万也有我们青蛙的会费垫背.
February 22, 2008 8:09 AM
qiqiapr said...
秋月语录 2/20 about holx "amazing! my stop held up strong! hold it"
2/18 about grmn "it will close inside my pink channel"
2/21"we are still in the triangle"
everyday "chase it！！" "no major resistance till xxx" “dont miss it”,"you
fear you frog"
总结，死不认错。
February 22, 2008 8:10 AM
Peng said...
aapl march 130c 1/25 highest price near $17, now it is about $1.95
February 22, 2008 8:13 AM
Kun Qu said...
not easy to make a decision for those existing positions
February 22, 2008 8:17 AM
Kun Qu said...
I am going to cut most of my positions and hold cash for a while, and
leaving those worthless calls to toilet paper.
February 22, 2008 8:19 AM
HJ said...
AAPl is either 横盘,or down little by little. Even though it is up 1 or 2$
to 122 next week, the call will be cheaper than it is now. So I chose to
sell it. If on OE day, AAPL is 130, the call price is 0, which is very
likely.
February 22, 2008 8:22 AM
qiqiapr said...
老秋也有点软了 ...sign
I feel sorry， 这几天骂他太多了market 回天无力， option 进出两难确实不是一个
人的错
sign
February 22, 2008 8:36 AM
DR1991 said...
agree. 骂won't solve any problem. I just wish Qui Da stay calm, and let us
know if we need to cut loss or the possible time frame that we have to keep
the status quo. I will follow. There is a saying 'Reality is a bitch'.
Excuse my french. We just have to face it.
February 22, 2008 8:45 AM
happy life said...
其实，老邱错了，我并不怪他，但我很想看到一个有道德的人在指导我们玩option,而
不是一个到处骗人的人.(look at what he said on other BBSs, brag about how
good his picks are).错了，就认，你的图还是有用的，你还是刻苦的。但现在让我想
到，指导我炒股的是一个很low的人。。。。我心里不舒服。。。毕竟我们是带着崇拜
来的。。。这个偶像被发现如此不堪的时候。。是很不好受的。
February 22, 2008 9:06 AM
Feng said...
大家说说，是不是AAPL现在很不妙啊。不考虑目前我们持有的CALL，如果现在入世，是
不是也是倾向于做空啊？我TA很差的说。
February 22, 2008 9:09 AM
Peng said...
I am very silly to put big chunk of money to follow Qiu blindly and lost on
aapl. that is my big mistake.
As president Jiang said well " Naive! Sometimes too simple"
February 22, 2008 9:10 AM
Yu said...
Qiu, what can you say now? another " you panic? I'm not..." or " time to add
more cheap calls, 10x soon", or maybe "feel bad? no, the chart looks real
good!!"
well, hehe, enough of joking. we all know we were wrong. What we can do now
is to minimize the loss by taking the right action. And we count on an
expert like you for advice. thx!
February 22, 2008 9:10 AM
Michael said...
Lao Qiu, Please be honest with us now. I have only one question: is it
possibly a good idea to close our long positions at this point? It's not a
bad thing if we admit that we are wrong, if we indeed are. Let's always be
forward looking. Don't let the past affect your judgement. That will only
cause more damage. Please, give a straight answer. If you say hold, I will
hold.
February 22, 2008 9:17 AM
Peng said...
wz2004,
Thanks. 我是这样的,我看到如果short loss超过original value 1.5倍,我就take the
loss and cover了. while longing options, though it might go up when it only
has 15% value left, you still wish it can go up until it becomes trash.
I think both short and long option carry same level of risks. yeah, I
remember what Qiu said about the TV and house. looks like this time those
poeple who short and sell aapl call options got the house.
February 22, 2008 9:20 AM
kevin said...
Qiu Da绝对是见过大世面的人，就从这等执著，绝非我等凡夫俗子所能follow.但这样
的结果，要么是九霄云外，要么是九层地狱。九霄不敢想了，九层又太可怕，衷心希望
我们大家能捞个一霄，两霄，全身或者小伤而退，就谢天谢地了。
February 22, 2008 9:23 AM
qiqiapr said...
Hi everyone,
When our leader is not honest to us, we need to be honest to ourselves.
Now, it seems everything will head lower. Go short, put to get some back.
some good short candidates:
MOS/POT..trend line broken. Good entry point.
MA about breaking down, credit crisis, short any rally, will down big
LVS, a little late, but should go below 75
isrg, a little late, but should go 250 again
solar..., look at jaso/stp...short flsr
rimm, can not hold under current market, will below 90 again
February 22, 2008 9:32 AM
qiqiapr said...
BSC, maybe a little rush at this point, in a bounce trend, has a chance to
touch 90 resistance. I might be wrong.
February 22, 2008 9:40 AM
Michael said...
Since we have nothing better to do here, why don't we start reporting our
losses here. Just for fun and for the record. Maybe today's biggest loser
will be tomorrow's biggest winner.
February 22, 2008 9:41 AM
pzzdm said...
我的木鸡功越来越好了。心如止水。跌吧跌吧，
大不了二十年后又是一条好汉！
February 22, 2008 9:42 AM
DR1991 said...
respond to Michael,
my loss is 60% so far.
February 22, 2008 9:46 AM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 22, 2008 9:51 AM
Peng said...
"the darkest before the Dawn"好象有一段时间了.if you do not sell you call,
you might get nothing back.
February 22, 2008 10:10 AM
Jeeplover said...
我在想, 要是秋大突然说他准备把90%call 10%put 换成90%put and 10%call, 有多少
青蛙要跳楼?
PS: From inter day chart, it seems that 12000 turns to be a strong resist
for Djia.
大家去看看胡同老蛇的chart把, 三大指数全部跌出了symmetric triangle.
The following link is 老蛇' chart.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/
Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd
=show[s124013638]&disp=P
February 22, 2008 10:14 AM
Peng said...
开个玩笑,大家别慌, 秋大昨天说了"Feel dizzy?? me too, but I am not out of
mind... because things are looking real good..."
you see, things are looking real good, this is a setup. well, this is a joke.
February 22, 2008 10:17 AM
qiqiapr said...
他这次大概不会换了
前面的故事大家都知道
如果再换一次。。。 就相当于抽自己三记耳光了
如果我是秋月，我大概也会坚持到底，即使dji到 10500， 反正call变成废纸后也不会
变成负数了
anyway, I think most of us have to find our own way, after this disaster
Jeeplover said...
我在想, 要是秋大突然说他准备把90%call 10%put 换成90%put and 10%call, 有多少
青蛙要跳楼?
February 22, 2008 10:21 AM
Yu said...
Qiu,
While all of us discussing here, did you come out with strategy to minimize
our loss? You seems all of a sudden get very quiet, that doesn't look like
you while the market favors your prediction.
February 22, 2008 10:22 AM
DR1991 said...
I guess go2you6 is the only one making money now, as he did not invest in
option too much. lucky y哦9ou!
February 22, 2008 10:31 AM
qiqiapr said...
今天这个blog确实冷清了
complain都没气力
大家都去舔伤口了
February 22, 2008 10:42 AM
Adai007 said...
Weekend is coming...all of the frogs here have been raped by the "bear" for
almost a month...don't hold any hopes for your calls, if you bought them
3wks ago...
Let's collect the last piece of bone and jump into the strip pub...
February 22, 2008 10:45 AM
trade test said...
if aapl breaks 117.27, then we are going down to 111.62
February 22, 2008 10:48 AM
Adai007 said...
AAPL, GOOG traders: AAPL is heading towards two digial; Goog is agin 4xx...
Anyone hold the interests, you can collect the calls as planned 3wks ago,
with -- 1-5% of the price we paid for that....cheers for anyone's courage
and luck!
February 22, 2008 10:51 AM
go2you6 said...
I think SPX 1320 is the life line. bull still have hope if this line hold.
At least the market is pig in these time.
February 22, 2008 10:55 AM
Michael said...
Just took my loss.
February 22, 2008 11:09 AM
Kun Qu said...
I closed most of my positions this morning and leaves only worthless calls,
I can take this risk because they are already worthless. I would say, in
this market, the best thing we should do is hold cash, and just watch. Any
move could potentially to be a bad move.
February 22, 2008 11:10 AM
qiqiapr said...
Kun Qu,
I think you made right decision. Too bad many of us waste our chances to cut
loss, again and again, when we saw the market moves against us. I am sure
most of us would have cut loss earlier if we didn't listen to others.
We were kidnapped by the wishful thinking....
February 22, 2008 11:18 AM
dale said...
HappyLife 说的对.
老秋也输钱,心理也难受
但不要向外面只说好的.
希望老秋改正,你还是老大,大家继续努力
February 22, 2008 12:08 PM
QQ said...
Now AAPL will under 116 soon.
Scared? Who said I am scared? I was scared weeks ago. Now my account only
have 8% left, why I am scared?
February 22, 2008 12:22 PM
pzzdm said...
靠，117破了。NND，跟他们死磕了。反正现在帐户里也没什么钱了。就当捐给MM了吧。
这次可能要被WIPEOUT了。
February 22, 2008 12:22 PM
Peng said...
scare 不 scare, 大家都给搞的没钱了.don't fight the trend.
February 22, 2008 12:27 PM
lpeng said...
秋月拜托你不要在博客上写诗了。尤其用你有语法错误的英文。我们付钱可不是看这个
的。有空快点想想aapl会不会真的去100以下。
还有希望你以后对某一个预测都说一下你自己的confidence。比如90%还是80%在7月份
到200。我们已经给你误导很多了。
February 22, 2008 12:42 PM
Peng said...
"Are you scared to death now??"大师发话了. 大师想反正就是我全错也没关系,你们
这几百的青蛙两个月的月费也够我白玩一阵,所以俺不scare. 你们这批青娃走了,还有
下批不怕死的青蛙.
February 22, 2008 12:49 PM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 22, 2008 1:00 PM
happy life said...
LAOQIU 着么像个FROG，蒙对了一个rim,就到处brag, why not brag on STP,GOOG,APPL.
February 21, 2008 6:40 AM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 21, 2008 6:42 AM
LJ said...
another bloody losing day again
February 21, 2008 7:05 AM
lpeng said...
秋月，我的aapl apr 160c 3块买的现在只有6毛钱了，你有什么好办法吗？
February 21, 2008 7:59 AM
pzzdm said...
老秋能有什么好办法？我一块多买的MARCH CALL现在就值1毛了。等圣诞节前AAPL回200
时老秋会说，看，我说要涨回200吧。那时候这BLOG里很多青蛙都已经被MM水煮吃掉了。
February 21, 2008 8:04 AM
Kun Qu said...
呵呵，同感
February 21, 2008 8:19 AM
pzzdm said...
本来我的帐户是DIVERSIFIED。有长有短。后来被老秋一鼓动，就把其他都CLOSE掉，换
成了AAPL。现在惨了。帐户已经缩水80%。 套得太深。
February 21, 2008 8:23 AM
Peng said...
Agree with pzzdm. AAPL will go back to 200 for sure, just when?
February 21, 2008 8:24 AM
Adai007 said...
Pat...pat...we are on the same boat, hope you don't have another superloser
-- goog. If so, the value is now only 5-10% left...now the only thing is to
-- GOD's Dayangbang...when?
---------------------------------
lpeng said...
秋月，我的aapl apr 160c 3块买的现在只有6毛钱了，你有什么好办法吗？
February 21, 2008 8:26 AM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 21, 2008 8:31 AM
pzzdm said...
adai, I happen to loaded heavily on that other super loser too. That's why
my account has been raped so hard. I also have another super loser called
BIDU. Seems I have all the losers and none of the winners. What a pity!
Somehow I have the impression that 老大 promote these big names harder than
those other names such as RIMM, FSLR etc. Don't know if it's just me.
February 21, 2008 8:33 AM
Kun Qu said...
you are not alone, for sure
February 21, 2008 8:39 AM
Peng said...
主要老大heavily pump losers like GooG and AAPL,对winner FSLR, RIMM没提过太多.
February 21, 2008 8:46 AM
Peng said...
Yu说的有理,如果我们都能赚到钱,还不是最好的宣传,还怕没有更多的青娃加入交88?你
在RIMM上是got lucky了,我们大多数人都在aapl/goog上die hard了. 你老在那喊1000
大羊棒. 谁都知道market跌多了必长啊,关键是timing和个股.如果DJI长到13200,aapl
还在130左右也没什么用啊.
对你还有些信心,等你喊跌了这次.去年11月大跌前你pump过bidu,跟了不少,还好那时候
只是stock,只亏了1000多,现在觉得你的long timing很有问题啊.
February 21, 2008 9:05 AM
Peng said...
"留得青山在一切从头来过，指望老秋把把都对是不是太天真了。玩option,10把对5把
就非常不错了。"说的没错,现在关键是山都快平了啊.没指望老秋把把都对,但是对他
heavily pump的那几把,希望他对啊.
February 21, 2008 9:14 AM
pzzdm said...
再等等吧，反正现在只是PAPER LOSS。 没准哪天老天有眼给我们来个+15day我们就有
救了。
February 21, 2008 9:18 AM
huigepao said...
老邱，这次的aapl和goog你让我们青蛙损失估计能在LA买十几二十个house了，即便
aapl现在让大家5X，10X也就是让大家 出水而已。你帮青蛙们好好想想对策吧，华人圈
子就这么大，丑事传千里。。。你费半天劲在各个论坛打广告不如青蛙帮你传话来的快
啊。。。请别删
February 21, 2008 9:34 AM
shouyi said...
LaoQiu is playing no guts no glory with his dow +1000 point call. If he is
right, he is the only one went bull when everybody else is calling bear
market/recession. If he's wrong, I guess some of us get wiped out.
At this point, I don' think it make sense asking him to tell us how to save
those paper loss. If he know how, he wouldn't be collecting $88 from us,
would he?
February 21, 2008 9:48 AM
zhulin lu said...
说实话，现在这个市场已经不是老秋所能看透的。老秋有水品但现在有水品的一样亏而
且亏得快。我aapl 130IN， 135out， option只挣了10％，我就知道不妙了，跑了。结
果到了125，又进，跌到118，回到130左右，感觉很不好，option只有20％＋，想跑没
来 得及，现在重仓的账户只有20％了。现在烂苹果既上不了，又烂不掉，但我们青蛙
都死翘翘，账户都要夷平了。
STP曾经挣钱，in@51,didn't out@58,fall to 43, in again, back to 50, didn't
out, now 40, WTF!
今天发誓，如果上天让我回本，不再玩option和短线！
February 21, 2008 10:00 AM
qiqiapr said...
我再看见老秋跳上跳下说 'you fear, you frog' 我就想骂人。。。
你这么说已经多少遍了，不fear 的跟着你难道就赚钱了。。。你自己大概不fear,说说
你从11800以后赚了还是赔了？ 这里的人以前fear么，你让ave down,大家都ave down,
现在呢，为什么大家fear了,为什么不敢ave down了？ 原因不是你自己么？ 我们的信
心不是说你叫“you fear, you frog”就来了，来自于好的分析，你的正确率
February 21, 2008 10:31 AM
kevin said...
When everybody here start complaining Qiu Da and no one else try to defend
for him, then the bottom really reached.
February 21, 2008 12:28 PM
ilvmm said...
kevin said...
When everybody here start complaining Qiu Da and no one else try to defend
for him, then the bottom really reached.
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
look like I am the only one here was defending him. So for the sake of every
one. I give up!!
what the f* market! Hope the Apple MM choke himself on chewing apple while
sitting on toilet!!
Looks like aapl will close below 122 today :o(
February 21, 2008 12:44 PM
mqz123 said...
看着血淋淋的账户，我只是想笑，一种自虐的神经质的笑。我不停地刷新帐户，没有什
么感觉，什么也不期望，甚至看到更红一些的时候我感觉到那种更痛快的残酷凄凉的笑
。我是疯了。
February 21, 2008 12:46 PM
mqz123 said...
那时holx 67.XX的时候，因为秋大的T1没有实现，没有卖，现在59.XX;那天goog盘后
544，朋友让我卖掉。我因为秋大的T1没有达到没有卖。现在我想自残。
February 21, 2008 12:49 PM
mqz123 said...
我真想骂人。你们心情不好的时候怎么发泄？健康的发泄方法，不要麻醉或者自残的那
种。
February 21, 2008 12:51 PM
Feng said...
大家知道我现在最怕什么吗？我最怕现在秋大说：我错了，苹果现在就是做酱的命运了
，大家赶快逃吧。我是不是很变态啊。呵呵。
February 21, 2008 12:58 PM
QQ said...
Hahaha...
Fear, why fear? AAPL calls I bought at around 4.5, now it is 0.45. GOOG
calls I bought at 11.0, now it is 1.0. Only 10% left. Hahahahahaha
February 21, 2008 12:59 PM
qiqiapr said...
hehe
there is always one who defend Qiuyue 100%. Himself!
老秋从来不会认错的，你们在抱怨怎么样，他照样不会说句sorry，照样觉得自己的
pick 挺好,自己的timing 挺棒
昨天在那喊grmn，结果呢，我说如果你承认你喊错了，你会赢得我的respect，但是他
会说sorry么，不会，rimm成了他的遮羞布
即使dji刺穿下三角， 他会说sorry么，不会，他会再找个新的遮羞布
反正那么多plan , pick呢，总有一个是反弹的，反弹一点就可以作为遮羞布了
现在连7天positive 都可以做遮羞布了，不想想这个positive有没有给大家带来盈利。
。。
话说得难听了点，但是如果一个人他不承认自己的错误，老叫 ‘you fear, you frog
’, 我决定不再尊敬他。。。
kevin said...
When everybody here start complaining Qiu Da and no one else try to defend
for him, then the bottom really reached.
February 21, 2008 1:04 PM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 21, 2008 1:10 PM
wz2004 said...
How I wish I am stupidly wrong in doubting about Qiuyue's judgment.
February 21, 2008 1:11 PM
qiqiapr said...
他是从他喊得起点 算起，哈哈
其实他在这里喊dji 1000+要比 在mit上喊早了2天， 起点更高
不过，无所谓了
对我们有什么不同呢
Peng said...
Did Qiu Da write it wrong?
"And today will be my 7th day in positive on my DJI 1000 pts claim, started
with 4 negative days… followed with 7 + days…got the trend??" and he
published this half hour before market closed.
I think Dow closed with 142 points down, right?
February 21, 2008 1:35 PM
futureopps said...
Qiu Da,
What's the target for the rebounce of STP?
Thanks!
February 20, 2008 6:36 AM
Kinderdijk said...
STP......
February 20, 2008 6:38 AM
Yager said...
Oh, my god! Look at GRMN, it is dropping like a sh*t!
February 20, 2008 6:38 AM
trade test said...
dow and spx are below the symmetric triangle lower channel. If we close
below that with large volume, we break down and go back Jan low.
Keep fingers crossed.
February 20, 2008 6:40 AM
Yager said...
Don't want to check my current account value any more... It's lucky that I
still have some cash in my account. If all calls become toilet papers, I
will have 1/3 of the original account value when I started to follow the
Master.
February 20, 2008 6:52 AM
Kun Qu said...
not bad, 留的青山在，不怕没柴烧
February 20, 2008 6:53 AM
kevin said...
AAPL苦苦挣扎，
GRMN一路下滑，
STP跌回老家，
BIDU稀里哗啦。
February 20, 2008 6:53 AM
Yager said...
kevin, 您学富五车，才高八斗啊
February 20, 2008 6:56 AM
Adai007 said...
Yager, similar to you, I even don't want to check my acc. any more... if
looking back 2-3 wk, we were actually on the opposite-side of MKT... AAPL,
GOOG, STP, none of them works since we jumped into -- perhaps too many of
people on this board in these picks?????????
--------------------------
Yager said...
Don't want to check my current account
February 20, 2008 6:59 AM
yawang35 said...
STP action now is not AH as CMG, so be careful, bounce will be weak, don't
hope too much if don't see upgrades like CMG.
February 20, 2008 7:01 AM
happy life said...
laoqiu,应该退费了。。。。这也错得太多了。。。
February 20, 2008 7:03 AM
Peng said...
I remember some words from "Gladiator" movie, "when enough men die, you may
have your freedom". so when enough frogs are wiped out, we may see the da
yangbang coming. hehe
February 20, 2008 7:05 AM
happy life said...
peng, let me know when u are wiped out, then I will start loading calls. But
it seems laoqiu is a pretty good reversal indicator for long/call, not too
bad.
February 20, 2008 7:09 AM
rosegarden said...
Peng,
You feel so happy to see other frogs were wiped out. When is your turn?
February 20, 2008 7:12 AM
Peng said...
老秋现在看阳棒也太不准了，估计这个blog上有 两三百个frogs,也许更多，如果大家
都给wipe out,谁还给老秋教每个月$88的费用啊？
February 20, 2008 7:22 AM
rosegarden said...
I was charged this month. After this month, I will quit from here.
February 20, 2008 7:26 AM
Peng said...
Rosegarden,
I did not mean I want to see other people to be wiped out. that is not the
point.
my point is Lao Qiu's dayangbang might come too late to save us, and gamble
on options can be very risky.
February 20, 2008 7:28 AM
pzzdm said...
he he. we got angry frogs here. I'm not angry though. I'm a frog in denial.
sky isn't falling and the market can't always go down.
February 20, 2008 7:28 AM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 20, 2008 7:29 AM
happy life said...
sky is not falling for sure. market can never be down, but people on this
board needs very sharp rise since our entry is high. and big rise is not
very likely, so smalll up and no down/up still kill all options.
----------------------
大家，考虑问下lawyer.老邱干这个可是不合法的。haha,just joking.
February 20, 2008 7:35 AM
halo3 said...
i don't understand why grmn is so weak after releasing the er which beats
the estimate.is it because the market is going down?
February 20, 2008 7:36 AM
rosegarden said...
I actually always have a question about TA. I truly don't believe that TA
can read anything, and predict stocks exclusively. If TA is the major tool
for money management, then how many top money managers are famous for their
TA skills?
February 20, 2008 7:36 AM
Comment deleted
This post has been removed by the author.
February 20, 2008 7:44 AM
QQ said...
$88 monthly fee is shit. I lost big money which is enough to pay tons of
years fees. I really hope Qiu can calm down and do good analysis to get our
money back. Complaints are worsen than shit.
February 20, 2008 7:52 AM
yaoxy said...
Man, grmn, drop with huge volume, not a good sign for T1
February 20, 2008 8:19 AM
happy life said...
with these many mistakes on picks, no matter what kinda money management, u
will be wiped out. we are not ask for 100% rite, but at least 20% or 40%?
February 20, 2008 8:26 AM
Ke said...
老秋最近偏得有点厉害啊？ 是不是考虑改变一下风格。。。少而精比较重要。 多了
就滥了。
February 20, 2008 9:37 AM
huigepao said...
ke：多了还能对几个堵住我等的嘴，少了错了这信息费就不好赚了。。。对于老邱，画
5个图和25个图基本没区别。老邱现在是商人，不是trader，目的是卖信息，不是靠图
赚钱。老邱别删，大家提建议都是为了你的买卖能更好。
February 20, 2008 9:52 AM
ilvmm said...
Now think about this yourself, if you are a true HH, and you can make $ from
market all the time, will you open a blog helping the frog?!
1) $88 monthly is good income! but it comes with responsibility!! I hope 秋
月realize this before he get in this.
2) I think opening the blog is helping the frogs out off endless failure
cycles! 有时真理只是一张纸。一桶就破！
Now if I am HH one day, will I help the frogs out? I think I will, but may
be not that many at the same time. But on the other hand, I am a 笨笨。也不
知这真理终究会不会给我看到:o(
February 20, 2008 2:07 PM
ilvmm said...
I am sorry i am not trying to make any one feel done here! I just want every
one has a purpose here! That is to learn and beat the market. I would hope
all Chinese make the $$$ from the market!! what an idiot 人种 观 I have here
:o(
But true, I would think different opinions (discussions) help! But make sure
your 出发点是 learning and discover the truth!!
take care all
February 20, 2008 2:12 PM
Bernanke said...
好，goog今天涨了5 cent，我们离被wipe out的risk又少了一些，aapl 190的时候还那
么多人买，现在120没人买了，靠
February 20, 2008 3:09 PM
huigepao said...
秋大，aapl4月的call就剩下50%不到了，3月的剩下25%了，4X才能出水，还有戏么？
February 19, 2008 8:34 AM
wch said...
老秋, could you give some comments on STP? STP is forming same pattern as
fslr, I guess. Thanks!
February 19, 2008 10:46 AM
秋之皓月 said...
I will hold STP thru ER… this is not an ER bet trade… because we entered
the position per our plan long time ago…
February 19, 2008 10:55 AM
qiqiapr said...
老秋每时每刻得给aapl goog holder打气
连十分钟图都用上了
一刻不打，气又撒了
呵呵
tech is weak， no matter what do you think
why we play weak
GS also weak, why we play weak
February 19, 2008 11:03 AM
Peng said...
我的240个Feb aapl靠都阵亡，一是自己贪，二是自己跟老秋 average down好几次，三
是没有diversify. 这把输的挺大。
February 19, 2008 12:10 PM
Feng said...
可惜我的总资金已经下降到25000以下了，没法进行操作了，不然，多么好的加仓机会
啊，俺肯定会在进AAPL，但是太性急了，把所有子弹都打光了。。。。
February 19, 2008 12:11 PM
Peng said...
"秋大最近有一点点反指" 我觉得不是一点点。要买put就发大了。
February 19, 2008 12:33 PM
qiqiapr said...
反指 也不可怕，如果让我们看到诚意也是值得尊敬的
就怕， 一点点favor 自己预测的走势就邀功
不favor 自己预测的走势就说 you fear? you frog！甚至说 2快钱的跌到0.05都不能
叫错
还能让我们有何话说
February 19, 2008 12:39 PM
pzzdm said...
看来我上周说的AAPL RETEST 117明天就要实现了。如果117不破，我们还有希望。如果
破了，唉，很多和我一样的青蛙就变成水煮田鸡了。
February 19, 2008 12:52 PM
Peng said...
不是水煮，是高压锅煮的。sad but true
February 19, 2008 12:56 PM
meteorshower said...
-----------------
QQ said...
To meteorshower:
If Qiu admit that he was wrong in AAPL.... what should you do?
------------------
hehe, I don't have much aapl holding currently. my account has shrunk big
time and I can take further hit.
What disturbing me is that lao-qiu has been doing more wishful thinking
recently than using TA to predict the trend. I hope lao-qiu can realize that
and be brave enough to admit his mistake.
If I keep getting disappointed, my last resort is not to renew my
subion. :-)
February 19, 2008 12:59 PM
huigepao said...
jeeplover:你4月的aapl靠还剩下40%？呵呵。如果你从最开始就跟老邱买并且没有
average down，你再仔细看看现在还剩下多少。。。
February 19, 2008 1:00 PM
pzzdm said...
我是第一批跟老邱买的。现在4月AAPL靠还剩越25%。靠！
February 19, 2008 1:02 PM
Jeeplover said...
把所有有profit的 pick 全部清掉了. 哪怕是明天涨三百点也不后悔, 毕竟明天还有掉
三百点的可能. 这年头, Cash is the king!!!
我同意Cobra的说法, symmetric triangle means 75% probability to continue
previous trend and only 25% reverse current trend.
February 19, 2008 1:04 PM
Jeeplover said...
我average down 了两次, 现在打死我也不average down 了.
February 19, 2008 1:05 PM
Peng said...
不知道这个blog上有多少青娃，如果有200个，估计这次 aapl, goog wishful
thinking might cost 几十个million了。
February 19, 2008 1:09 PM
QQ said...
Hahaha, we are already "死猪不害开水烫"!
February 19, 2008 1:18 PM
LJ said...
我跟秋大从一开始就买了march的apple calls, 90%已经没有了，看来是需要自救的时
候了
February 19, 2008 2:05 PM
huigepao said...
bin:you are not alone.我是老邱喊aapl时候第一批冲上去的，可能也是第一批倒下的
，呵呵。
Blogger Bin said...
Not sure most of you. My account is in the hell... :( Close my monitor for
now. God bless!
February 15, 2008 8:27 AM
February 15, 2008 8:34 AM
Yager said...
today is bloody... all my calls except FSLR are deep under water... I
thought BIDU mar 320 call could be profitable, hoho. It seems I need to be
patient and MUJI.
February 15, 2008 9:40 AM
pzzdm said...
唉，我赌的FEB 130C全部阵亡了。
February 15, 2008 10:58 AM
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