*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. *Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.
SEASONALITY: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH
See 03/12 Market Recap for details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A CYCLE TOP WITHIN THIS WEEK
See 03/12 Market Recap for details.
There’re 3 cycles due today, all look like a top.
1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.
1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases).
1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN, NOT SURE WHEN IT STARTS
See 03/12 Market Recap for details.
SHORT-TERM: SPX PULLBACK IN 3 DAYS FOR 40 PLUS POINTS?
今天SPX虽然最终收绿了,不过Daily图不是很好看。0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals,QQQQ daily chart更明显些,2 reversal bars in a row,多少应该mean something哈。
下面的图标出了历次QQQQ black bar plus confirmed by a red day the next day后的情形。除了一次例外,基本上都离short-term top不远了。上面的table,大家都看了,很多top signs,如果明天再涨的话,可能会更多,因此我认为这次是那次例外的可能性比较小。
下面的图纯粹是speculation,for fun only,标题那么写,就是想引大家来看,呵呵,因为这么天天涨下去,大概胡同很快就要关门了,谁还分析大盘哈,天天涨就是了。不过the bottom line,至少pullback是近在眼前了。基本论据是这次的rally和去年七月份的差不多,目前都经历了25 trading day,但是从幅度上讲,这次比七月份弱很多,因此既然七月份是第28个trading day开始回调40点左右,那么这次我们应该也可能在28个trading day以内,回调大于40点,这就是说最迟周四开始回调。
今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到SPY up 12 days in a row,平了历史纪录。下面的图是1995年SPY创纪录时的情形。for info only,不想暗示什么。
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.
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